{"id":43666,"date":"2026-03-30T23:02:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T23:02:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-160-seviyesini-astiktan-sonra-japonyanin-yenin-zayifligina-iliskin-uyarilarini-yinelemesiyle-15960-civarina-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T23:02:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T23:02:09","slug":"usd-jpy-160-seviyesini-astiktan-sonra-japonyanin-yenin-zayifligina-iliskin-uyarilarini-yinelemesiyle-15960-civarina-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-160-seviyesini-astiktan-sonra-japonyanin-yenin-zayifligina-iliskin-uyarilarini-yinelemesiyle-15960-civarina-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, 160 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yinelemesiyle 159,60 civar\u0131na geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 160,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 ay\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan %0,44 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 159,60 civar\u0131na geriledi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Japon yetkililerin d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yenilemesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.\n\nJaponya\u2019n\u0131n en \u00fcst d\u00fczey d\u00f6viz yetkilisi (kur diplomasisi) Atsushi Mimura, spek\u00fclatif i\u015flemlerin (k\u0131sa vadeli, h\u0131zl\u0131 al-sat ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemler) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve s\u00fcrmesi h\u00e2linde Tokyo\u2019nun \u201ckararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u201d atabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, yeni (do\u011frudan) d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi riskini art\u0131rd\u0131; ama\u00e7 Yen\u2019i desteklemek, yani Yen\u2019in de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak.\n\n<h3>Yenilenen M\u00fcdahale Riski<\/h3>\nBaz\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, zay\u0131f Yen ve y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin enflasyona (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fini de tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. MUFG analistleri, kur \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 s\u00fcrerse yetkililerin hem daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi) hem de piyasaya m\u00fcdahale ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanabilece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin artmas\u0131yla riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131) devam ediyor. \u0130ran destekli Husiler ve kritik petrol sevkiyat hatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tehditler belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rarak g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klara (krizde tercih edilen varl\u0131klar) talebi destekledi.\n\nABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019da \u201cyeni bir rejim\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarafla askeri operasyonlar\u0131 bitirmek i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca h\u0131zl\u0131 bir anla\u015fma olmazsa veya H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapal\u0131 kal\u0131rsa ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n enerji tesislerini hedef alabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. (H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131d\u0131r.)\n\nFed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, politikan\u0131n \u201ciyi bir yerde\u201d oldu\u011funu ve Fed\u2019in faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmeden \u00f6nce daha fazla veri bekleyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Enerji ve jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n (tedarikte ani bozulma) izlenmesi gerekti\u011fini, enflasyon beklentilerinin kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 (piyasada kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklentisi olu\u015fmamas\u0131) i\u00e7in bunun \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.\n\n<h3>\u00d6nce Oynakl\u0131k Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131<\/h3>\nPiyasalar ayr\u0131ca Japonya\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tokyo T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi), Sanayi \u00dcretimi ve Perakende Sat\u0131\u015f verilerini b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve BOJ politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan izleyecek.\n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin yeniden 160 seviyesine y\u00f6nelmesi 2025\u2019teki tabloyu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Japon yetkililer tekrar \u201ckararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u201d gibi sert ifadeler kullan\u0131yor; bu da m\u00fcdahale ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 piyasay\u0131 alarma ge\u00e7iriyor. Bu ortamda paritede basit bir uzun pozisyon (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131mak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00e7ok riskli.\n\n\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan strateji, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak yerine oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na (fiyat\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) i\u015flem yapmak olmal\u0131. Bunun i\u00e7in opsiyon almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu) ya da strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu) gibi yap\u0131lar, fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefler. 1 ayl\u0131k USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak sert bir hareket beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.\n\nGe\u00e7mi\u015f m\u00fcdahaleler riskin nas\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. 2022 ve 2024\u2019teki m\u00fcdahaleler paritenin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket edebilece\u011fini ortaya koydu. 2022 sonbahar\u0131nda Japon yetkililer 60 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde harcama yapt\u0131 ve parite bir g\u00fcnde 5 yenin \u00fczerinde geriledi. Benzer bir hareket, haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z pozisyonlara ciddi zarar verebilir; bu nedenle USD\/JPY put (sat\u0131m) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada \u00f6nemli bir korunma (hedge: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\n\u00d6te yandan, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fcvenli liman talebini de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 95 dolar civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve VIX endeksinin (piyasa korku g\u00f6stergesi) 18\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretmesi, piyasada belirgin bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f havas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu korku, dolara taban olu\u015fturuyor ve paritenin kolay d\u00fc\u015fmesini engelliyor.\n\nTemel belirleyici, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck politika fark\u0131. Fed\u2019in faizi %4,5 civar\u0131nda sabit tutmaya daha yatk\u0131n oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, BOJ s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seviyelerden ancak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar yapt\u0131. %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faizi aras\u0131ndaki makas), Yen ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 cazip olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor ve Fed faiz indirmedik\u00e7e veya BOJ \u00e7ok daha sert s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gitmedik\u00e7e parite \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine neden oluyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY 160\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 159,60\u2019a \u00e7ekildi: Japonya\u2019dan \u201ckararl\u0131 ad\u0131m\u201d sinyali m\u00fcdahale riskini b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f dolar\u0131 destekliyor; strateji y\u00f6n de\u011fil, opsiyonla oynakl\u0131k.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43666\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}