{"id":43663,"date":"2026-03-30T22:02:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T22:02:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/powell-harvard-ekonomi-ogrencilerine-fedin-gerginlikler-ortaminda-ikili-mandatini-dengelerken-faiz-artislarina-ara-verebilecegini-soyledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T22:02:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T22:02:40","slug":"powell-harvard-ekonomi-ogrencilerine-fedin-gerginlikler-ortaminda-ikili-mandatini-dengelerken-faiz-artislarina-ara-verebilecegini-soyledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/powell-harvard-ekonomi-ogrencilerine-fedin-gerginlikler-ortaminda-ikili-mandatini-dengelerken-faiz-artislarina-ara-verebilecegini-soyledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Powell, Harvard ekonomi \u00f6\u011frencilerine Fed\u2019in gerginlikler ortam\u0131nda ikili mandat\u0131n\u0131 dengelerken faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara verebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi"},"content":{"rendered":"Jerome Powell, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) iki hedefi aras\u0131nda bir gerilim oldu\u011funu ve bu nedenle herkesin ayn\u0131 fikirde olmamas\u0131n\u0131n normal oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Politikan\u0131n mevcut tabloyu izleyip g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in \u201ciyi bir yerde\u201d oldu\u011funu, Fed\u2019in ekonomik etkilerin ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmedi\u011fini belirtti.\n\nFed\u2019in enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yeniden %2\u2019ye indirmeye kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. G\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin (tarife) enflasyona etkisini, tek seferlik bir fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131; enflasyona yar\u0131m ile 1 puan ekleyebilece\u011fini ifade etti.\n\n<h3>Fed Politikas\u0131nda Denge Aray\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/h3>\nPowell, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmelerin benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Fed\u2019in genelde \u201carz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131\u201d (\u00fcretim\/tedarik kaynakl\u0131 ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131) k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcp politika kararlar\u0131nda fazla b\u00fcy\u00fctmemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak enflasyon beklentilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekti\u011fini belirtti. Enflasyon beklentilerinin \u201c\u00e7apal\u0131\u201d (uzun vadede belirli bir seviyede sabit kal\u0131yor) g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ekledi.\n\nAra\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131n, uzun vadeli varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (Fed\u2019in uzun vadeli tahvil alarak piyasaya para vermesi) faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp ekonomiyi destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. B\u00fcy\u00fck bilan\u00e7o nedeniyle beklenen olumsuzluklar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fini de ekledi. (Fed bilan\u00e7osu: Fed\u2019in elindeki tahvil ve di\u011fer varl\u0131klar\u0131n toplam\u0131; b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e sistemde para ve likidite artar.)\n\nPowell, Fed\u2019in tamamen ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ve siyasetten uzak olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini, ancak d\u00fczenlemenin Dodd-Frank\u2019ten (2008 krizi sonras\u0131 getirilen finansal kurallar paketi) bu yana farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130\u015f yarat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7ildi\u011fini ve bunun normal i\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn (ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme-daralma dalgalar\u0131) d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda daha uzun vadeli bir geli\u015fmeye i\u015faret edebilece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nYapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n (AI) verimlili\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve orta-uzun vadede \u00e7ok iyimser oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u0130\u015f piyasas\u0131na yeni girmenin ise zor bir d\u00f6nem oldu\u011funu da ekledi.\n\n<h3>Piyasa Etkileri ve Pozisyonlama<\/h3>\nFed\u2019in politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cbeklemek i\u00e7in iyi bir yerde\u201d oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Politika faizi (federal funds rate: bankalar\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131nda baz al\u0131nan Fed faizi) son \u00fc\u00e7 toplant\u0131da %5,25\u2019te sabitken, k\u0131sa vadede piyasalar\u0131n dar bantta kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. CME FedWatch Tool (vadeli i\u015flemlerden faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) Temmuz 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da piyasada bir noktada y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nFed\u2019in %2 enflasyon hedefi, kamuya a\u00e7\u0131k duru\u015f olarak s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve mevcut y\u00fcksek faizleri gerek\u00e7elendiriyor. Ancak \u015eubat 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi enflasyonun %2,8\u2019e indi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, faiz indirimi bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi enflasyon beklentisi anketinde 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,9\u2019da \u201c\u00e7apal\u0131\u201d kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in piyasay\u0131 \u00fcrk\u00fctmeden ileride politika gev\u015fetmesine (faiz indirimi gibi) alan a\u00e7\u0131yor.\n\n\u0130\u015f piyasas\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131na dair 2025\u2019teki uyar\u0131lar bug\u00fcn daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. \u015eubat 2026 istihdam raporunda tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sadece 95 bin oldu; 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki 180 binlik ayl\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, piyasan\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi bekleyen) fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni.\n\nSon geli\u015fmeler, arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6rme e\u011filimini de yeniden g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc %8 y\u00fckselterek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu tablo, yeni jeopolitik risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\nFed\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck bilan\u00e7osunun ciddi bir olumsuzluk yaratmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bilan\u00e7o 6,8 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde; kademeli k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme (Fed\u2019in elindeki tahvilleri azaltmas\u0131) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin korktu\u011fu t\u00fcrden piyasa bozulmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7mad\u0131. Bu durum, ani bir likidite s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (piyasada para bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015fmas\u0131) riskini azalt\u0131yor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Powell\u2019dan kritik mesaj: Fed bekle-g\u00f6r modunda. Enflasyonu %2\u2019ye indirmede kararl\u0131; tarifeler enflasyona 0,5-1 puan ekleyebilir. Jeopolitik petrol riskleri s\u00fcrerken, zay\u0131flayan istihdam 2026\u2019da faiz indirimi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43663"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43663\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}