{"id":43658,"date":"2026-03-30T21:02:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T21:02:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bnp-paribas-2026da-abd-buyumesinin-trendin-uzerinde-olmasini-bekliyor-gsyh-27-enflasyon-31-fed-faizi-35-375te-sabit-tutar\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T21:02:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T21:02:55","slug":"bnp-paribas-2026da-abd-buyumesinin-trendin-uzerinde-olmasini-bekliyor-gsyh-27-enflasyon-31-fed-faizi-35-375te-sabit-tutar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bnp-paribas-2026da-abd-buyumesinin-trendin-uzerinde-olmasini-bekliyor-gsyh-27-enflasyon-31-fed-faizi-35-375te-sabit-tutar\/","title":{"rendered":"BNP Paribas, 2026\u2019da ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin trendin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor: GSYH %2,7, enflasyon %3,1; Fed faizi %3,5\u2013%3,75\u2019te sabit tutar"},"content":{"rendered":"BNP Paribas, ABD GSYH\u2019nin (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) 2026\u2019da %2,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini, 2025\u2019teki %2,1\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka, enflasyonun 2026\u2019da %3,1 olmas\u0131n\u0131 ve en az 2028\u2019e kadar hedefin (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n istedi\u011fi enflasyon seviyesi) \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.\n\nBanka, enflasyonun seyrini g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerine (ithalata ek vergi) ve daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca tarifelerin etkisinin beklenenden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\n\n<h3>Fed Policy Outlook<\/h3>\nRapora g\u00f6re FOMC (Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar organ\u0131) 2025\u2019te toplam 75 baz puan (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 75 bp = %0,75) olmak \u00fczere \u00fc\u00e7 faiz indirimi yapt\u0131. BNP Paribas, Fed Funds hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (ABD\u2019de politika faizi aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) 2026 boyunca %3,5-%3,75 band\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.\n\nB\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ra\u011fmen BNP Paribas, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n 2026 sonuna kadar euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka ayr\u0131ca yen ve sterlinin de dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerileyece\u011fini; 2026\u20194\u00c7\u2019de USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160, GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nYaz\u0131da, metnin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n\n<h3>FX Strategy Implications<\/h3>\nDolar\u0131n euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. ABD ekonomisindeki mevcut dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k ve son verilerin 2026 1\u00c7 i\u00e7in %2,9 civar\u0131nda GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine i\u015faret etmesi, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskli d\u00f6nemlerde tercih edilen varl\u0131k) talebini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. EUR\/USD paritesi (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki fiyat) 1,10 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) kullanabilir.\n\nTersine, dolar genel olarak yatay seyrederken yen ve sterlinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zay\u0131flama bekliyoruz. USD\/JPY \u015fu anda 155 civar\u0131nda; faiz farklar\u0131 (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 faiz oran\u0131 fark\u0131) dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Bu nedenle 160 seviyesini hedefleyen call spread (iki al\u0131m opsiyonu ile maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Sterlin 1,33 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru 1,30\u2019a kademeli gerilemeye kar\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BNP Paribas\u2019tan dikkat \u00e7eken ABD tahmini: 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme %2,7\u2019ye h\u0131zlanacak, enflasyon %3,1 ve 2028\u2019e dek hedef \u00fcst\u00fc. Fed faizi %3,5-3,75\u2019te; dolar euroya kar\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131flayacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43658"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43658\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}