{"id":43654,"date":"2026-03-30T20:02:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T20:02:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/mart-s-sancili-kosullar-nisana-dair-beklentileri-bozuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T20:02:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T20:02:52","slug":"mart-s-sancili-kosullar-nisana-dair-beklentileri-bozuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/mart-s-sancili-kosullar-nisana-dair-beklentileri-bozuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Mart, S&#038;P 500\u2019de %7,7\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe sahne olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; sanc\u0131l\u0131 ko\u015fullar Nisan\u2019a dair beklentileri bozuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500\u2019\u00fcn Mart ay\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmas\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz. Bu, endeksin son bir y\u0131ldaki ilk belirgin geri \u00e7ekilmesi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, uzun vadeli y\u00fckselen kanal\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n belirli bir bant i\u00e7inde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etti\u011fi trend yap\u0131s\u0131) tam \u00fcst b\u00f6lgesinde oluyor; ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki y\u00fckseli\u015flerde de bu teknik b\u00f6lgede ivme kayb\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasa i\u00e7in kritik s\u0131nav art\u0131k 6.000\u20136.100 band\u0131ndaki deste\u011fin (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferken tutunma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi seviye) korunup korunamayaca\u011f\u0131.\n\n6.000\u20136.100 b\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen ana zirveyi ve trendin orta \u00e7izgisini (y\u00fckselen kanal\u0131n ortas\u0131n\u0131; trend g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc takip etmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan seviye) temsil ediyor. Bu seviyenin korunamamas\u0131, genel y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir uyar\u0131 olur. K\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 5.400\u20135.600 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilme riski artar.\n\n<h3>Kilit Destek B\u00f6lgesi<\/h3>\nZay\u0131fl\u0131k sadece ABD ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil; k\u00fcresel kat\u0131l\u0131m (y\u00fckseli\u015fe daha az say\u0131da hisse ve piyasan\u0131n e\u015flik etmesi) bozuluyor. Bunu destekleyen bir g\u00f6sterge olarak NYSE\u2019de (New York Borsas\u0131) hisselerin 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n (hissenin son 200 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcndeki ortalama fiyat\u0131; uzun vadeli trend g\u00f6stergesi) \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6renlerinin oran\u0131 \u015fubat sonundaki %65\u2019ten bug\u00fcn %38\u2019e geriledi. Piyasay\u0131 daha az say\u0131da hisse ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ana endeksler sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale gelir.\n\nKorku endeksi VIX 31,5\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f olsa da (VIX: S&#038;P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct; y\u00fckselmesi belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir), ge\u00e7mi\u015fte bu seviye \u201ctepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi\u201d (k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli toparlanma) i\u00e7in olumlu bir i\u015faret say\u0131labilirdi; ancak bu kez tablo farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2024 sonundaki bankac\u0131l\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 dalgalanmada benzer VIX s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 ge\u00e7ici dipleri i\u015faret etmi\u015fti; fakat bug\u00fcn endeks ile oynakl\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki net de\u011fil. Bu da olas\u0131 bir toparlanman\u0131n zay\u0131f olabilece\u011fine ve \u201ckesin al\u0131m sinyali\u201d gibi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nMakro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de bu temkinli duru\u015fu destekliyor: \u201cPetrol \u015foku\u201d benzeri bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma ekonomiyi zorluyor. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine itmesiyle birlikte, ge\u00e7en haftaki \u00e7ekirdek PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi g\u00f6sterge) enflasyonu beklentilerin \u00fczerinde %3,2 geldi. Bu durum, Fed\u2019den (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) piyasay\u0131 destekleyecek faiz indirimleri ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k marjlar\u0131 (sat\u0131\u015flardan elde edilen k\u00e2r\u0131n oran\u0131) \u00fczerindeki bu bask\u0131, sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n neden kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.\n\nBu tabloda, 6.000 seviyesinin net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kullan\u0131lan opsiyon) almay\u0131 ya da ay\u0131 call spread\u2019i (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle, bir call opsiyonu sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call almak; riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) kullanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir ve 5.400 hedefini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Destekten k\u0131sa vadeli tepki bekleyenler i\u00e7in ise 6.000\u2019in alt\u0131nda \u201czarar durdurma mesafesi olan\u201d out-of-the-money put spread (mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 se\u00e7eneklerle kurulan, prim geliri hedefleyen ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) satmak, prim (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) geliri elde ederken riski tan\u0131mlaman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. Bu ortamda opsiyonlarla olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r.\n\n<h3>Risk Y\u00f6netimi Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: S&#038;P 500 martta %7,7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Kritik 6.000\u20136.100 deste\u011fi testte; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 5.400\u20135.600 riski. Kat\u0131l\u0131m zay\u0131f, VIX 31,5; petrol\/\u00e7ekirdek PCE Fed indirimini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Opsiyonla korunma \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43654\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}