{"id":43653,"date":"2026-03-30T20:02:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T20:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/xag-usd-getirilerin-gerilemesiyle-7050-dolar-civarina-yukseldi-ancak-100-gunluk-smanin-altinda-kalarak-asagi-yonlu-riskleri-canli-tutuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T20:02:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T20:02:10","slug":"xag-usd-getirilerin-gerilemesiyle-7050-dolar-civarina-yukseldi-ancak-100-gunluk-smanin-altinda-kalarak-asagi-yonlu-riskleri-canli-tutuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/xag-usd-getirilerin-gerilemesiyle-7050-dolar-civarina-yukseldi-ancak-100-gunluk-smanin-altinda-kalarak-asagi-yonlu-riskleri-canli-tutuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"XAG\/USD, getirilerin gerilemesiyle 70,50 dolar civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi ancak 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri canl\u0131 tutuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Silver (XAG\/USD) Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Hazine tahvil faizleri (devlet bor\u00e7lanma senetlerinin getirisi) gerilerken y\u00fckseldi. XAG\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 70,50 dolar seviyesinde ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 art\u0131da. Ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.\n\n10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil faizi 6 baz puandan (faizde y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim) fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,35\u2019e indi; daha \u00f6nce \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k zirveler g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasalar ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde en az iki faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yordu. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ise k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti.\n\n<h3>Federal Reserve Beklentileri De\u011fi\u015fiyor<\/h3>\nBu beklentiler zay\u0131flad\u0131. CME FedWatch Tool (Fed faiz kararlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin vadeli fiyatlamalardan olas\u0131l\u0131k t\u00fcreten g\u00f6sterge) verilerine g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed\u2019in 2026 boyunca faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme ihtimalini daha fazla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek faizler ve y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilecek unsurlar olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve\/veya finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.\n\nTeknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm k\u0131sa vadede n\u00f6tr ile zay\u0131f aras\u0131. Fiyat 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama) 74,96 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131nda. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er) 40\u2019a yak\u0131n. MACD (hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n yak\u0131nsama-\u0131raksama g\u00f6stergesi; momentum \u00f6l\u00e7er) s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor, ancak sinyal \u00e7izgisine yakla\u015f\u0131yor.\n\nDiren\u00e7 74,43 dolarda (61,8% geri \u00e7ekilme; 61,01-96,15 hareketinin Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesi), ard\u0131ndan 78,58 dolar (50%) izleniyor. Destek 68 dolar civar\u0131nda; 68,53 dolar (78,6%) seviyesine yak\u0131n. Daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 65 dolar ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (uzun vadeli trendi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan hareketli ortalama) bulundu\u011fu 58 dolar civar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\n2025\u2019teki de\u011ferlendirmeye d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Fed beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131 (piyasalar\u0131n yeni beklentilere g\u00f6re fiyat ayarlamas\u0131) sonras\u0131 piyasan\u0131n denge arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fcksek faizin g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131na dair endi\u015feler do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; fiyatlar \u015fimdi o \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen band\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 test ediyor. Bu tablo, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l s\u0131\u00e7rayan oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nFed, piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 patikay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar politika faizini %5,25\u2019te sabit tuttu. \u015eubat T\u00dcFE verisi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,6 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da merkez bankas\u0131na indirim i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Bu duru\u015f, getiri \u00fcretmeyen bir varl\u0131k olan (faiz\/kira gibi d\u00fczenli nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flamayan) g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in olumsuz bir zemin olu\u015fturarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fleri \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>B\u00fcy\u00fcme, Talep ve Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n2025\u2019te endi\u015fe edilen ekonomik yava\u015flama art\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; 2025 4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) nihai verisi zay\u0131f %1,3 olarak teyit edildi. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sanayi talebini (\u00fcretimde kullan\u0131m kaynakl\u0131 talep) azaltabilir. \u00d6te yandan resesyon (ekonomik daralma) korkular\u0131 artarsa \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde tercih edilen varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011fiyle talep g\u00f6rebilir. Bu iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc etki, fiyat\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmek yerine yatay seyretmesini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu satman\u0131n (mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu; prim geliri sa\u011flar) gelir yaratmak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 74,50 dolar civar\u0131nda belirlenen diren\u00e7 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Bu seviye, fiziki pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ccovered call\u201d (eldeki varl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak; prim toplan\u0131r, yukar\u0131 potansiyel s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 hedefi olabilir. B\u00f6ylece g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f bu teknik tavan\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin erimesi) faydalan\u0131labilir.\n\nA\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma bekleyenler i\u00e7in 68 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki destek b\u00f6lgesi kritik e\u015fik. Ekonomik veriler k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015firse bu seviyenin alt\u0131na sarkma, 65 dolar psikolojik seviyesine (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n zihninde \u00f6nem atfedilen yuvarlak seviye) do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. \u201cProtective put\u201d (eldeki pozisyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, 66 dolar civar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla, riskten korunma (hedge) i\u00e7in g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir y\u00f6ntem olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %1 y\u00fckselse de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in 2026\u2019da sabit faiz senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f, 68 destek, 74,5 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43653","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43653"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43653\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43653"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43653"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43653"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}