{"id":43652,"date":"2026-03-30T20:01:22","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T20:01:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-kanada-merkez-bankasinin-toplanti-tutanaklarinin-guvercin-tonda-olmasini-zayif-talep-ve-hafifleyen-enflasyon-baskilarina-vurgu-yapmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T20:01:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T20:01:22","slug":"td-securities-kanada-merkez-bankasinin-toplanti-tutanaklarinin-guvercin-tonda-olmasini-zayif-talep-ve-hafifleyen-enflasyon-baskilarina-vurgu-yapmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-kanada-merkez-bankasinin-toplanti-tutanaklarinin-guvercin-tonda-olmasini-zayif-talep-ve-hafifleyen-enflasyon-baskilarina-vurgu-yapmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvercin tonda olmas\u0131n\u0131, zay\u0131f talep ve hafifleyen enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na vurgu yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) Mart ay\u0131 **M\u00fczakere \u00d6zeti**nin (faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131) **g\u00fcvercin** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerine ekonomiyi destekleyici, daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na yak\u0131n) tonda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Odak noktas\u0131, i\u00e7eride zay\u0131flayan ekonomik ko\u015fullar ve **devam eden dezenflasyon** (enflasyonun h\u0131z kesmesi) olacak. Notta, k\u0131sa vadede man\u015fet enflasyondaki ge\u00e7ici g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelinebilece\u011fi\u201d esnekli\u011fine i\u015faret ediliyor.\n\nYorumda belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n Ocak tahminlerinde \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha fazla **arz fazlas\u0131** (ekonomide talebin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00fcretim kapasitesinin tam kullan\u0131lmamas\u0131) bulundu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, **CPI-trim** ve **CPI-median** (Banka\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon\u201d olarak izledi\u011fi, ge\u00e7ici oynak kalemleri etkisizle\u015ftirerek enflasyonun daha \u201ctemel\u201d e\u011filimini \u00f6l\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan g\u00f6stergeler) son d\u00f6nemde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha az genele yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.\n\n

Front End Volatility Selling<\/h3>\nPiyasan\u0131n dikkati, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin risklerin nas\u0131l tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in Banka\u2019n\u0131n ne kadar zamana ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Sunulan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re **gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc** (faiz indirim s\u00fcreci) sona erdi.\n\nTahmin, Banka\u2019n\u0131n **gecelik faizini** (bankalar\u0131n bir gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizi; BoC\u2019nin ana politika faizi) 2026 boyunca %2,25\u2019te tutaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. **N\u00f6tr seviyeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn** (ne ekonomiyi frenleyen ne de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 destekleyen faiz d\u00fczeyi) ise 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00fcndeme gelmesi bekleniyor.\n\nBanka\u2019n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d pozisyonunda kalaca\u011f\u0131 sinyali, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fcvercin ton beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Odak, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 ekonomi ve enflasyonda son d\u00f6nemde kaydedilen ilerleme olacak; bu da %2,25\u2019lik gecelik faizin 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda korunaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Bu istikrar, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyonlanmas\u0131nda ana tema olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\n

Low Volatility Rate Strategies<\/h3>\nSon d\u00f6nemde **man\u015fet enflasyondaki** (genel T\u00dcFE; t\u00fcm kalemleri i\u00e7eren ana oran) s\u0131\u00e7ramalar yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131; Banka da bunu b\u00f6yle de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u015eubat man\u015fet T\u00dcFE %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Banka\u2019n\u0131n tercih etti\u011fi **\u00e7ekirdek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler** (CPI-trim ve CPI-median gibi, ge\u00e7ici oynak kalemleri ay\u0131klamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan g\u00f6stergeler) ortalama %2,4 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Bu durum Banka\u2019ya \u201cbekle ve g\u00f6r\u201d alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor; k\u0131sa vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri zay\u0131f kalabilir.\n\nBu ortam, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmamas\u0131) kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejiler i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. **Opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (fiyatlar sakin kal\u0131rsa prim geliri elde etmeyi ama\u00e7layan i\u015flem) gibi yakla\u015f\u0131mlar, **BAX** (Bankers\u2019 Acceptance vadeli i\u015flemleri; Kanada\u2019da k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan vadeli kontratlar) veya **CORRA vadeli i\u015flemleri** (CORRA: Kanada\u2019n\u0131n gecelik risksiz referans faizi; bu faize dayal\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) \u00fczerinde g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Banka\u2019n\u0131n \u201cbeklemede kalma\u201d niyeti, getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131nda (k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil faizleri) sert hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\nBanka\u2019n\u0131n sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik gerek\u00e7e, son verilerle de destekleniyor. Ocak ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin en g\u00fcncel GSYH verisi %0,1 daralmaya i\u015faret etti. \u015eubat **\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Anketi** (istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en resmi anket) ise i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %6,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu tablo, ekonomide daha \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclenden fazla arz fazlas\u0131 oldu\u011funu teyit ederek yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in aciliyeti azalt\u0131yor.\n\nD\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, bu durum Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n (CAD) g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmakta zorlanabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. BoC net \u015fekilde beklemede kal\u0131rken di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yorsa, **faiz fark\u0131** (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki faiz oran\u0131 fark\u0131; para birimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli) CAD lehine olmayabilir. Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fler, sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BoC\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz var m\u0131? TD Securities, Mart \u00f6zetinin g\u00fcvercin kalmas\u0131n\u0131; zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep ve dezenflasyona vurgu bekliyor. Man\u015fet art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilebilir; \u00e7ekirdek yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Faiz %2,25 2026\u2019ya kadar, CAD bask\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43652","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43652"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43652\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43652"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43652"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43652"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}