{"id":43638,"date":"2026-03-30T16:04:53","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T16:04:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bob-savage-euro-duyarlilik-endekslerinin-100un-altina-gerilemesiyle-115e-yakin-zayifliyor-dolar-guclu-seyrini-koruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T16:04:53","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T16:04:53","slug":"bob-savage-euro-duyarlilik-endekslerinin-100un-altina-gerilemesiyle-115e-yakin-zayifliyor-dolar-guclu-seyrini-koruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bob-savage-euro-duyarlilik-endekslerinin-100un-altina-gerilemesiyle-115e-yakin-zayifliyor-dolar-guclu-seyrini-koruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Bob Savage: Euro, duyarl\u0131l\u0131k endekslerinin 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na gerilemesiyle 1,15\u2019e yak\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131yor; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Euro bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; EUR\/USD 1,15 seviyesine yak\u0131n. AB ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksleri, uzun vadeli ortalama olan 100\u2019\u00fcn daha da alt\u0131na indi.\n\nAB ekonomik g\u00fcveni martta 1,5 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 96,7\u2019ye geriledi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi g\u00fcveni 1,6 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 96,6 oldu.\n\nEuro, **durgunlukla birlikte enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 (stagflasyon)** ve enerji endi\u015feleri nedeniyle sert sat\u0131ld\u0131. Euro\u2019ya do\u011fru **portf\u00f6y dengeleme (rebalancing; ay sonlar\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 hedef seviyelere \u00e7ekmesi)** kaynakl\u0131 giri\u015fler, **makroekonomik bask\u0131lar (macro headwinds; b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enerji, enflasyon gibi olumsuz ana etkenler)** s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve **fiyat beklentileri** y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in temkinli kalabilir.\n\n\u015eubat sonundan bu yana ayl\u0131k yumu\u015fat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ak\u0131mlar (**smoothed flows; g\u00fcnl\u00fck dalgalanmalar\u0131 azaltan ortalama veri**) INR (Hindistan rupisi) ve EUR\u2019nun en \u00e7ok sat\u0131lan para birimleri oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Sat\u0131\u015f, **\u00f6demeler dengesi (balance of payments; \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f gelir-gider toplam\u0131)** kayg\u0131lar\u0131 ve stagflasyon korkusuna ba\u011flan\u0131yor.\n\nNormal portf\u00f6y dengelemesi, INR ve EUR\u2019da pozisyon art\u0131r\u0131p CNY (\u00c7in yuan\u0131) ve BRL (Brezilya reali) riskini azaltmak anlam\u0131na gelir. Ancak son pozisyonlar\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki etkenler zay\u0131flamad\u0131; hatta g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.\n\nGenel belirsizlik sekt\u00f6rler genelinde artt\u0131. Fiyat beklentileri y\u00fckseldi; bu da b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nEuro\u2019nun ciddi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. EUR\/USD 1,1500 seviyesini korumakta zorlan\u0131rken son olarak 1,1485 ile dip g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Euro B\u00f6lgesi Sentix Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 G\u00fcveni endeksinin nisan i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini (flash estimate; ay bitmeden yay\u0131mlanan ilk hesap) -18,5\u2019e gerileyerek zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc teyit etti. Bu veriler, piyasadaki stagflasyon ve enerji arz\u0131 endi\u015felerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\nNormalde euroya destek verebilecek ay sonu portf\u00f6y dengeleme ak\u0131mlar\u0131 isteksiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00f6nc\u00fc HICP enflasyonu (**HICP; uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi**) beklentileri a\u015farak %4,8 geldi. Bu ortamda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 zor bir denklemle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bu temel olumsuzluk, k\u0131sa vadeli euro y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.\n\n**T\u00fcrev (derivative; de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemi** yapanlar i\u00e7in tablo, euroda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma al\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 1 ayl\u0131k EUR\/USD **opsiyon**larda (**opsiyon; belirli tarihe kadar belirli kurdan alma\/satma hakk\u0131**) **z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k** (**implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma**) %9,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrek ortalamas\u0131 %7,2 idi. Bu, piyasan\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD\u2019de **sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu** almak veya **ay\u0131 put spreadi (bear put spread; daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan strateji)** kurmak etkili olabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Euro\u2019da alarm zilleri: EUR\/USD 1,15\u2019in alt\u0131nda. AB\/Euro B\u00f6lgesi g\u00fcveni 96,6-96,7\u2019ye indi; stagflasyon ve enerji kayg\u0131lar\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Ay sonu rebalancing zay\u0131f, opsiyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43638","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43638"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43638\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43638"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43638"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43638"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}