{"id":43634,"date":"2026-03-30T14:07:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T14:07:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ocbc-stratejistleri-iran-catismasinin-baslamasindan-bu-yana-yasanan-%20lik-kayiplarin-ardindan-altindaki-toparlanmayi-teknik-bir-hareket-olarak-goruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T14:07:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T14:07:45","slug":"ocbc-stratejistleri-iran-catismasinin-baslamasindan-bu-yana-yasanan-%20lik-kayiplarin-ardindan-altindaki-toparlanmayi-teknik-bir-hareket-olarak-goruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ocbc-stratejistleri-iran-catismasinin-baslamasindan-bu-yana-yasanan-%20lik-kayiplarin-ardindan-altindaki-toparlanmayi-teknik-bir-hareket-olarak-goruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"OCBC stratejistleri, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana ya\u015fanan %20\u2019lik kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131ndaki toparlanmay\u0131 teknik bir hareket olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"OCBC stratejistleri Sim Moh Siong ve Christopher Wong\u2019a g\u00f6re alt\u0131n\u0131n son toparlanmas\u0131, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana fiyatlar\u0131n bir ara yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak **teknik** nedenlere dayan\u0131yor. (Teknik hareket: \u015eirket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, faiz beklentisi gibi temel haberlerden \u00e7ok; grafikteki fiyat seviyeleri, trend ve g\u00f6stergelerle ilgili al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131n etkisi.) K\u0131sa vadede bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi i\u00e7in alan olabilece\u011fini, ancak bunun kal\u0131c\u0131 olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirsiz oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.\n\nStratejistler, **diren\u00e7** seviyelerini 4.624 (**100DMA**), 4.670 (**%38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi**) ve 4.850 (**%50 Fibonacci**) olarak belirtiyor. (Diren\u00e7: Fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselirken zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131, sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye. 100DMA: Son 100 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131; piyasada s\u0131k izlenen bir referans. Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi: Bir y\u00fckseli\u015f\/ d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 fiyat\u0131n s\u0131k duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f seviyelerini g\u00f6steren oranlar.) Daha uzun soluklu bir toparlanma i\u00e7in alt\u0131n\u0131n bu seviyelerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p **orada kalmas\u0131** gerekti\u011fini ifade ediyorlar.\n\nAyr\u0131ca **y\u00fcksek reel getiriler** ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (**Fed**) beklenen **faiz indirimlerinin** azalmas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n i\u00e7in ko\u015fullar\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorlar. (Reel getiri: Faiz getirisinin enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f h\u00e2li; y\u00fckselince faiz getirmeyen varl\u0131klar daha az cazip olur.) Haberde, i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir **yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131** yard\u0131m\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlendi\u011fi de yer al\u0131yor.\n\nAlt\u0131n\u0131n son s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019lik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan. Bu, k\u0131sa vadeli bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi ihtimaline i\u015faret etse de, hareketin kal\u0131c\u0131 olacak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc **temel** dayana\u011f\u0131 (temel: enflasyon, faiz, b\u00fcy\u00fcme, talep gibi ekonomik etkenler) olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131. 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layan zorlu **makro** ortamda (makro: \u00fclke\/ k\u00fcresel ekonomi g\u00f6stergeleri) belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.\n\nEn b\u00fcy\u00fck olumsuz etken, y\u00fcksek reel getiriler olmaya devam ediyor. Son veriler, ge\u00e7en hafta 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k **TIPS** getirisinin %2,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. (TIPS: ABD\u2019de enflasyona endeksli devlet tahvili; getirisi \u201creel faiz\u201d i\u00e7in piyasan\u0131n izledi\u011fi \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergedir.) Bu durum, **getiri sa\u011flamayan** varl\u0131klar\u0131 (alt\u0131n gibi faiz\/kupon \u00f6demesi olmayan) daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca son ABD **T\u00dcFE** verisi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %2,9 ile beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde geldi ve Fed\u2019in \u201cyak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirimi yok\u201d mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir itici g\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.\n\n**T\u00fcrev** i\u015flemler yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. opsiyon), bu tablo \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda **al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** veya **ay\u0131 call spreadi** kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 (ay\u0131 call spreadi: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyattan call sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek fiyattan call alarak, y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle risk\/geliri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek h\u00e2line getirebilir. 4.624 ve 4.670 civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7lerin mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ctavan\u201d olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu seviyelerde ya da biraz \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, toparlanman\u0131n s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle **prim** (prim: opsiyonun pe\u015fin \u00f6denen fiyat\u0131) toplamay\u0131 hedefler.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2023\u2019te Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik gerilime ra\u011fmen alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131k s\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme benziyor. O d\u00f6nemde alt\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsa da, elde tutman\u0131n **f\u0131rsat maliyeti** (f\u0131rsat maliyeti: alt\u0131n yerine faiz getiren varl\u0131kta kal\u0131nsayd\u0131 elde edilecek getiriden vazge\u00e7ilmesi) kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 engellemi\u015fti. Benzer bir bask\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu teknik tepkinin ne kadar y\u00fckse\u011fe gidebilece\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131nda teknik tepki mi, kal\u0131c\u0131 ralli mi? OCBC\u2019ye g\u00f6re s\u0131\u00e7rama, \u0130ran sonras\u0131 %20 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan grafi\u011fe dayal\u0131; 4.624-4.670-4.850 diren\u00e7. Y\u00fcksek reel faiz, azalan Fed indirimleri y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43634"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43634\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}