{"id":43620,"date":"2026-03-30T11:06:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T11:06:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/altin-ikinci-gunde-de-yukseldi-ancak-temkinli-alicilar-kuresel-faiz-beklentilerinin-daha-fazla-yukselisi-sinirlamasiyla-karsi-karsiya\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T11:06:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T11:06:59","slug":"altin-ikinci-gunde-de-yukseldi-ancak-temkinli-alicilar-kuresel-faiz-beklentilerinin-daha-fazla-yukselisi-sinirlamasiyla-karsi-karsiya","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/altin-ikinci-gunde-de-yukseldi-ancak-temkinli-alicilar-kuresel-faiz-beklentilerinin-daha-fazla-yukselisi-sinirlamasiyla-karsi-karsiya\/","title":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n ikinci g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi, ancak temkinli al\u0131c\u0131lar k\u00fcresel faiz beklentilerinin daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya"},"content":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n, yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.420 dolara geriledikten sonra ikinci g\u00fcn y\u00fckseldi ve pazartesi Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 4.550 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar Endeksi ayl\u0131k zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildi; bu durum alt\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Ancak k\u00fcresel faizlerin daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi beklentisi (faiz: merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bor\u00e7 verme maliyeti) y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\n\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Haberlerde ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a kara harek\u00e2t\u0131n\u0131 (kara i\u015fgali: kara birlikleriyle do\u011frudan askeri operasyon) de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi, Yemen\u2019deki Husilerin 24 saatten k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u0130srail\u2019e f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fi ve yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.\n\n

Ticaret Yolu Aksamas\u0131 ve Enflasyon Bask\u0131s\u0131<\/h3>\n\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131na ek olarak Bab el-Mandeb Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ticaretin aksayaca\u011f\u0131 kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu unsurlar petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarken enflasyon riskini de b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc.\n\nOECD (Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc) ABD enflasyon tahminini %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti; bu oran daha \u00f6nceki de\u011ferlendirmesinin ve Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) %2,7\u2019lik beklentisinin \u00fczerinde. OECD\u2019nin temel senaryosu Fed\u2019in faizleri 2027\u2019ye kadar de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi; CME FedWatch (vadeli i\u015flemlerden t\u00fcretilen piyasa olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) ise 2026\u2019da ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nAlt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama: son 100 g\u00fcn\u00fcn fiyat ortalamas\u0131) alt\u0131na indikten sonra bant i\u00e7inde seyretti, ancak 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019dan toparland\u0131. MACD (momentum g\u00f6stergesi: k\u0131sa-uzun ortalama fark\u0131na bakar) negatif, RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7er) 30\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) 4.630 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.880 dolar civar\u0131nda. Destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma seviyesi) 4.380 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.300 dolar; yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde dip 4.100 dolar civar\u0131nda.\n\nJeopolitik korku ile para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likidite karar\u0131) yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cger\u00e7eklik\u201d aras\u0131nda klasik bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma var; bu da belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman (riskli d\u00f6nemlerde tercih edilen varl\u0131k) olarak alt\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep getiriyor. CBOE Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan oynakl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) bu gerilimi yans\u0131tt\u0131 ve 22,5 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karak bir y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fckse\u011fine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu, opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyon fiyat\u0131\/bedeli) b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketi beklentisiyle y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\n

Oynak K\u0131r\u0131lma \u0130\u00e7in Opsiyon Konumlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n\u0130ran\u2019a kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 ihtimali, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksakl\u0131klarla birle\u015fince belirgin bi\u00e7imde enflasyonu art\u0131rabilecek bir tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Sevkiyatta etkiler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Bab el-Mandeb\u2019den ge\u00e7en konteyner trafi\u011fi 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki seviyelere g\u00f6re %80\u2019den fazla geriledi; bu durum tedarik zincirlerinin (\u00fcretim ve teslimat a\u011f\u0131) yeniden t\u0131kanmas\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Jeopolitik riskin merkez bankas\u0131 \u00e7izgisinden daha bask\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, 4.880 dolardaki direnci hedefleyen al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nDi\u011fer taraftan daha y\u00fcksek faiz tehdidi, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131 unsurudur. 2025 boyunca enflasyonun %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 OECD\u2019nin ABD i\u00e7in %4,2 tahmini, 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz g\u00f6steriyor. Bu senaryo dolar\u0131 destekler ve alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek faizi savunan) tutumuna oynayanlar i\u00e7in 4.300 dolardaki destek b\u00f6lgesini hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.\n\nKar\u015f\u0131t etkiler nedeniyle, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan oynakl\u0131k \u00fczerinden pozisyon almak daha temkinli bir tercih olabilir. Paran\u0131n ba\u015fa ba\u015f oldu\u011fu seviyeden (at-the-money: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131na yak\u0131n) hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak uzun straddle kurmak, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, son s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma band\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f beklenirken y\u00f6n\u00fcn net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde kullan\u0131l\u0131r.\n\nAlt\u0131nda veya madencilik hisselerinde (alt\u0131n \u00fcreten \u015firket paylar\u0131) mevcut uzun pozisyonu olanlar i\u00e7in riskten korunma (hedging: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc ara\u00e7 kullanma) yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmeli. Fiyat \u015fu anda 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar aras\u0131nda; bu, karars\u0131zl\u0131k b\u00f6lgesi. Sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak, piyasan\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan \u00e7ok faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131 halinde ya\u015fanabilecek sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda y\u00f6n arayanlara kritik e\u015fik: 4.550 dolar civar\u0131nda toparlanma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Dolar gerilerken jeopolitik risk talebi art\u0131r\u0131yor; ancak y\u00fckselen faiz\/enflasyon beklentisi bask\u0131 kuruyor. Opsiyonlarda volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43620\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}