{"id":43559,"date":"2026-03-28T05:01:18","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T05:01:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dbs-endonezyada-mart-tufesinin-yillik-bazda-yuzde-4e-yakin-gerceklesmesini-bekliyor-artista-akaryakit-maliyetleri-festivaller-ve-baz-etkisi-belirleyici-oluyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-28T05:01:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T05:01:18","slug":"dbs-endonezyada-mart-tufesinin-yillik-bazda-yuzde-4e-yakin-gerceklesmesini-bekliyor-artista-akaryakit-maliyetleri-festivaller-ve-baz-etkisi-belirleyici-oluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dbs-endonezyada-mart-tufesinin-yillik-bazda-yuzde-4e-yakin-gerceklesmesini-bekliyor-artista-akaryakit-maliyetleri-festivaller-ve-baz-etkisi-belirleyici-oluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS, Endonezya\u2019da mart T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 4\u2019e yak\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini bekliyor; art\u0131\u015fta akaryak\u0131t maliyetleri, festivaller ve baz etkisi belirleyici oluyor."},"content":{"rendered":"DBS Group Research, Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n mart ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim) %4 olmas\u0131n\u0131, \u015fubattaki %4,8\u2019e g\u00f6re gerilemesini bekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca ayl\u0131k bazda (bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fim) art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki ortalamalardan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nTahmin, fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 artan enerji maliyetlerine ve tatil d\u00f6nemlerindeki talebe ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Baz etkisi (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\/y\u00fcksek baz\u0131n bu y\u0131lki oran\u0131 yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itmesi) de e\u011filimi destekleyen bir unsur olarak g\u00f6steriliyor.\n\n<h3>Indonesia March Inflation Outlook<\/h3>\nBahsedilen politika se\u00e7eneklerinden biri, b\u00fct\u00e7edeki tasarruflar\u0131 kullanarak artan maliyeti kar\u015f\u0131lamak ve pompa akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutmak. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrer ve akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa, akaryak\u0131t zamm\u0131 veya s\u00fcbvansiyon (devlet deste\u011fi) kesintisi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artar.\n\nEndonezya\u2019n\u0131n mart enflasyon verisini izliyoruz. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun, \u015fubattaki %3,5 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde gelmesini bekliyoruz. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 Ramazan d\u00f6neminde artan harcamalardan ve k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor; Brent petrol (k\u00fcresel petrol fiyat\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Bu tablo, ayl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nH\u00fck\u00fcmetin ilk ad\u0131m\u0131, t\u00fcketiciyi korumak i\u00e7in artan maliyeti \u00fcstlenip pompa fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutmak olabilir. Ancak enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte s\u00fcbvansiyon kesintisi veya fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu belirsizlik genelde piyasalarda dalgalanmay\u0131 y\u00fckseltir.\n\nBu bask\u0131lar nedeniyle, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank Indonesia) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (enflasyonu kontrol etmek i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, yani faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; ama\u00e7 enflasyon beklentilerini sabitlemek. 2025 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla, 2022\u2019de enflasyon h\u0131zlan\u0131nca piyasalar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz; benzer bir durum g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in faiz swap\u0131 (faiz takas\u0131: sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) gibi ara\u00e7lar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n\n<h3>Rupiah Market Implications<\/h3>\nBu ortam, rupiyi de bask\u0131l\u0131yor; para birimi dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 15.800 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasa, enflasyon riskini olas\u0131 politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 tartarken USD\/IDR (dolar\/rupi kuru) paritesinde dalgalanman\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev ara\u00e7 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, kurdaki zay\u0131flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu y\u00f6nde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin IDR \u00fczerine \u201cput\u201d (sat\u0131m opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Endonezya\u2019da mart T\u00dcFE\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz kap\u0131da: DBS y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun %4\u2019e gerilemesini beklerken Ramazan ve y\u00fcksek petrol ayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. S\u00fcbvansiyon riski, \u015fahin MB, rupi\/kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43559","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43559"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43559\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43559"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43559"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43559"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}