{"id":43554,"date":"2026-03-28T04:04:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T04:04:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dbs-guney-korenin-mart-ayi-ihracatinin-guclu-artmasini-ve-enerji-kaynakli-daha-pahali-ithalata-ragmen-dis-ticaret-fazlasinin-yukselmesini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-28T04:04:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T04:04:50","slug":"dbs-guney-korenin-mart-ayi-ihracatinin-guclu-artmasini-ve-enerji-kaynakli-daha-pahali-ithalata-ragmen-dis-ticaret-fazlasinin-yukselmesini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dbs-guney-korenin-mart-ayi-ihracatinin-guclu-artmasini-ve-enerji-kaynakli-daha-pahali-ithalata-ragmen-dis-ticaret-fazlasinin-yukselmesini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin mart ay\u0131 ihracat\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc artmas\u0131n\u0131 ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 ithalata ra\u011fmen d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin mart ay\u0131 ihracat\u0131n\u0131n, **\u00e7ift haneli b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini** (yani y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %10 ve \u00fczeri art\u0131\u015f\u0131) korumas\u0131 ve ocak-\u015fubat d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bunu; **yapay zek\u00e2 (AI)** ve **veri merkezi altyap\u0131s\u0131** (bulut hizmetleri i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck sunucu ve a\u011f sistemleri) ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 talep, **bellek \u00e7ipi** (RAM ve NAND gibi depolama\/bellek yar\u0131 iletkenleri) fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekliyor.\n\n\u0130thalatta ise daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Nedeni, petrol ve **LNG** (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) maliyetlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f. Buna ra\u011fmen mart ay\u0131nda **d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131n** (ihracat\u0131n ithalattan y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.\n\n<h3>Enflasyon G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Ve Politika Zemini<\/h3>\nT\u00fcketici enflasyonunun %2 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve martta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k **%2,3**\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm; k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve **KRW\u2019nin zay\u0131flamas\u0131** (G\u00fcney Kore wonunun de\u011fer kaybetmesi) ile ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.\n\nH\u00fck\u00fcmet, fiyatlar\u0131 dengelemeye ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n etkisini azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bunlar; yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131na tavan uygulamas\u0131, rezervlerden piyasaya \u00fcr\u00fcn verilmesi, enerji tasarrufu kampanyalar\u0131 ve **25 trilyon KRW\u2019lik ek b\u00fct\u00e7e** (mevcut b\u00fct\u00e7eye ilave harcama paketi) gibi \u00f6nlemleri i\u00e7eriyor.\n\nBu tabloyla G\u00fcney Kore teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yapay zek\u00e2 ve bellek \u00e7iplerinin destekledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck yar\u0131 iletken hisselerinde veya **KOSPI 200 endeksinde** **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) stratejilerini cazip k\u0131labilir. Benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yar\u0131 iletken ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek verdi\u011fi \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n\nKore wonu taraf\u0131 daha karma\u015f\u0131k. **D\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi** normalde won i\u00e7in destekleyici olsa da, y\u00fcksek enerji ithalat maliyetleri ve jeopolitik riskler a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle **USD\/KRW** (ABD dolar\u0131\/Kore wonu kuru) dalgal\u0131 kalabilir; 1370-1420 band\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Kurun bant i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle, USD\/KRW \u00fczerinde **strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (farkl\u0131 iki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte satarak prim toplama; kurun belirli aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131na oynayan strateji) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\n<h3>Faiz, Kur Ve Risk Pozisyonlamas\u0131<\/h3>\nEnflasyon merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede **faiz indirimi** olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131f. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda **tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde** (ileride belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Daha \u00f6nce enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre sabit tuttu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\n\nH\u00fck\u00fcmetin 25 trilyon KRW\u2019lik paket d\u00e2hil **mali te\u015fviki** (b\u00fct\u00e7eden harcama art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla ekonomiyi destekleme), fiyat tavanlar\u0131yla enflasyonu y\u00f6netirken i\u00e7 talebi desteklemeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, i\u00e7 t\u00fcketime d\u00f6n\u00fck baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rleri y\u00fcksek faizlerin etkisine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131smen koruyabilir. Bu da, faizlere daha hassas sekt\u00f6rler yerine i\u00e7 pazar odakl\u0131 hisseleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan **g\u00f6reli de\u011fer** (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 birbirine g\u00f6re avantaj\/dezavantaj \u00fczerinden de\u011ferlendirme) i\u015flemlerine kap\u0131 aralayabilir.\n\n\u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma piyasada oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca kayna\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor; petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Bu belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda, mevcut uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in **zarar durdurma de\u011fil, \u201ckoruma\u201d ama\u00e7l\u0131 opsiyon** almak mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin KOSPI \u00fczerinde **zararda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren opsiyon) al\u0131nabilir. Son bir ayda VKOSPI\u2019nin (G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin **oynakl\u0131k endeksi**, piyasan\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) 15\u2019in alt\u0131ndan 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, tedirginli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de AI ve bellek \u00e7ipleri ihracat\u0131 martta \u00e7ift haneyi koruyup h\u0131zlanabilir; enerji ithalat\u0131 artsa da fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Enflasyon %2,3; KRW zay\u0131f. KOSPI opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43554","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43554"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43554\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43554"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43554"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43554"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}