{"id":43551,"date":"2026-03-28T04:02:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T04:02:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/deepali-bhargava-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-artis-ve-arz-kesintileri-filipinlerde-buyume-enflasyon-ve-dis-dengeleri-tehdit-ediyor-bspnin-politika-adimlarini-zorlastiriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-28T04:02:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T04:02:40","slug":"deepali-bhargava-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-artis-ve-arz-kesintileri-filipinlerde-buyume-enflasyon-ve-dis-dengeleri-tehdit-ediyor-bspnin-politika-adimlarini-zorlastiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/deepali-bhargava-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-artis-ve-arz-kesintileri-filipinlerde-buyume-enflasyon-ve-dis-dengeleri-tehdit-ediyor-bspnin-politika-adimlarini-zorlastiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Deepali Bhargava: Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve arz kesintileri, Filipinler\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon ve d\u0131\u015f dengeleri tehdit ediyor; BSP\u2019nin politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"ING, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve arz kesintisi (tedarik aksamas\u0131) risklerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, enflasyonu y\u00fckseltti\u011fini ve Filipinler\u2019in d\u0131\u015f dengelerini (cari i\u015flemler ve \u00f6deme dengesi gibi \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f finansman g\u00f6stergeleri) bozdu\u011funu bildirdi. Raporda, tek ba\u015f\u0131na daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 gibi) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda pesonun ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki seyrini de\u011fi\u015ftirmesinin zor oldu\u011fu belirtildi.\n\nRapora g\u00f6re petrol \u015foku (petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ani y\u00fckseli\u015f), ham petrol k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve pompa fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle Filipinler\u2019in ulusal acil durum ilan etmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu durumun b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi.\n\n

Petrol \u015eoku Politika \u0130kilemini Yeniden Alevlendirdi<\/h3>\nRaporda, Brent ham petrol\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte referans kabul edilen petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) martta bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi kaydedildi. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, ana enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji dahil genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) temel senaryoda hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi belirtildi.\n\nING, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n ortalama de\u011fi\u015fimi) martta %4\u2019\u00fc a\u015fabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bunun, BSP\u2019nin (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas; Filipinler Merkez Bankas\u0131) nisan gibi erken bir tarihte faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti\u011fi ifade edildi.\n\nMevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131nda yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel senaryoda BSP\u2019nin nisanda faizi sabit tutabilece\u011fi belirtildi. Sava\u015f\u0131n uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryoda ise BSP\u2019nin nisanda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.\n\nRaporda bu ko\u015fullar\u0131n pesoda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca BSP\u2019nin belirli bir kur seviyesini hedeflemedi\u011fi ve d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinin (kur hareketlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki y\u00f6nlendirmesine at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131.\n\n

Dalgal\u0131 Piyasalar \u0130\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Rehberi<\/h3>\nMevcut petrol \u015foku, Brent\u2019in bu \u00e7eyrekte %25 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, bilinen bir politika ikilemi yarat\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2025\u2019te benzer bir enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tehdit etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen bask\u0131lara benziyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu benzerlik \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara dair bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunuyor.\n\nY\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri enflasyonu resmi hedefin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u015eubat 2026\u2019da T\u00dcFE %4,8 ile \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ay %4 tavan\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu durum BSP\u2019nin erken faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Rapora g\u00f6re buna y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in Filipinler faiz oran\u0131 swaplar\u0131nda (faiz takas\u0131; sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin s\u00f6zle\u015fmeyle takas edilmesi) sabit faiz \u00f6deme taraf\u0131nda yer almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nEnflasyon ve \u00fclkenin y\u00fcksek ithalat faturas\u0131 (d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan al\u0131nan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin toplam maliyeti) para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. Filipin pesosu dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 59,50\u2019ye gerileyerek 2025\u2019teki dalgalanmadaki dip seviyelere d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kademeli de\u011fer kayb\u0131na (kurun yava\u015f yava\u015f y\u00fckselmesine) daha toleransl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi nedeniyle, pesodaki daha fazla zay\u0131flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in USD\/PHP \u00fczerinde dolar al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131) almak bir korunma (hedge) y\u00f6ntemi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nZay\u0131flayan ekonomiyi desteklemek ile enflasyonla m\u00fccadele aras\u0131nda kalan merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n tercihi, belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu gerilim, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle USD\/PHP paritesinde \u201cuzun straddle\u201d gibi (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen strateji) sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanan stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol \u015foku Filipinler\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyip enflasyonu azd\u0131r\u0131yor: ING, cari denge ve peso \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini, tek ba\u015f\u0131na faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n dolara kar\u015f\u0131 trendi \u00e7evirmekte zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43551"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43551\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}