{"id":43547,"date":"2026-03-28T00:02:43","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T00:02:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/deepali-bhargava-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-artislar-ve-arz-kesintilerinin-filipinlerin-buyumesini-enflasyonunu-ve-dis-dengelerini-tehdit-ederek-bspnin-politika-adimlarini-zorlastirdigi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-28T00:02:43","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T00:02:43","slug":"deepali-bhargava-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-artislar-ve-arz-kesintilerinin-filipinlerin-buyumesini-enflasyonunu-ve-dis-dengelerini-tehdit-ederek-bspnin-politika-adimlarini-zorlastirdigi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/deepali-bhargava-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-artislar-ve-arz-kesintilerinin-filipinlerin-buyumesini-enflasyonunu-ve-dis-dengelerini-tehdit-ederek-bspnin-politika-adimlarini-zorlastirdigi\/","title":{"rendered":"Deepali Bhargava, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar ve arz kesintilerinin Filipinler\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini, enflasyonunu ve d\u0131\u015f dengelerini tehdit ederek BSP\u2019nin politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi."},"content":{"rendered":"ING, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve arz kesintisi risklerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, enflasyonu art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Filipinler\u2019in d\u0131\u015f dengelerini (\u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f dengesi; cari i\u015flemler gibi) bozdu\u011funu bildirdi. Banka, sadece daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda peso\/dolar seyrini tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fi\u015ftirmesinin zor oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.\n\nRapora g\u00f6re petrol \u015foku, ham petrol k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve pompa fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle Filipinler\u2019in ulusal acil durum ilan etmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu durum, b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131rd\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revizyona neden oldu.\n\n

Petrol \u015eoku Politika \u0130kilemini Yeniden Alevlendirdi<\/h3>\nRaporda Brent t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol\u00fcn (Kuzey Denizi referans petrol fiyat\u0131) mart ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtildi. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, baz senaryoda man\u015fet enflasyonun (genel enflasyon; enerji ve g\u0131da dahil) hedef band\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.\n\nING, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; perakende fiyatlar\u0131n genel g\u00f6stergesi) mart ay\u0131nda %4\u2019\u00fc a\u015fabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu durum, Filipinler Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BSP) nisan ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n\nMevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yak\u0131nda hafiflemesi varsay\u0131lan baz senaryoda, BSP\u2019nin nisan ay\u0131nda faizi sabit tutabilece\u011fi belirtildi. Sava\u015f\u0131n uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryoda ise BSP\u2019nin nisan ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi ifade edildi.\n\nRapora g\u00f6re bu ko\u015fullar peso i\u00e7in de\u011fer kayb\u0131 riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca BSP\u2019nin belirli bir kur seviyesini hedeflemedi\u011fi ve d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinin (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla kura s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etki etmesi) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki y\u00f6nlendirmesi hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.\n\n

Dalgal\u0131 Piyasalar \u0130\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Rehberi<\/h3>\nMevcut petrol \u015foku, Brent petrol\u00fcn bu \u00e7eyrekte %25 artarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 dolara y\u00fckselmesiyle birlikte, tan\u0131d\u0131k bir politika ikilemi yarat\u0131yor. Bu ortam, 2025\u2019te benzer bir enerji s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tehdit etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemdeki bask\u0131lar\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.\n\nY\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri enflasyonu resmi hedefin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u015eubat 2026\u2019da T\u00dcFE %4,8 ile \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ay %4 tavan\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu, BSP\u2019nin erken faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu beklentiye g\u00f6re konum almak i\u00e7in Filipinler faiz swaplar\u0131nda (faiz takas\u0131; sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) sabit faiz \u00f6demek (sabit faizde pozisyon almak; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nEnflasyon ve \u00fclkenin y\u00fcksek ithalat faturas\u0131 (d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan al\u0131nan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin d\u00f6viz maliyeti) para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. Filipin pesosu dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 59,50\u2019ye gerileyerek 2025\u2019teki \u00e7alkant\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki dip seviyeleri yeniden g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kademeli de\u011fer kayb\u0131na daha toleransl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi nedeniyle, pesodaki olas\u0131 ek zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in peso kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131) almak bir riskten korunma (hedge) y\u00f6ntemi olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.\n\nZay\u0131flayan ekonomiyi desteklemek ile enflasyonla m\u00fccadele aras\u0131nda kalan merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu zor tercihi, piyasa belirsizli\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu gerilim, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesine yans\u0131yor. Bu nedenle USD\/PHP paritesinde uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler) gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol \u015foku Filipinler\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131: b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, enflasyon hedefi a\u015f\u0131yor, d\u0131\u015f dengeler bozuluyor. ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re tek ba\u015f\u0131na faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 pesoyu kurtaramaz; 59,50 riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43547","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43547\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}