{"id":43537,"date":"2026-03-27T21:03:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T21:03:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-thu-lan-nguyen-altin-beklentisini-yukseltti-2026-sonuna-kadar-5-000-dolar-takip-eden-yil-5-200-dolar-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T21:03:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T21:03:45","slug":"commerzbanktan-thu-lan-nguyen-altin-beklentisini-yukseltti-2026-sonuna-kadar-5-000-dolar-takip-eden-yil-5-200-dolar-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-thu-lan-nguyen-altin-beklentisini-yukseltti-2026-sonuna-kadar-5-000-dolar-takip-eden-yil-5-200-dolar-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Thu Lan Nguyen alt\u0131n beklentisini y\u00fckseltti: 2026 sonuna kadar 5.000 dolar, takip eden y\u0131l 5.200 dolar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Commerzbank, fiyatta ya\u015fanan son %15\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n tahminlerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Banka art\u0131k 2026 sonu i\u00e7in ons ba\u015f\u0131na 5.000 dolar, bir sonraki y\u0131l i\u00e7in ise 5.200 dolar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nBanka, y\u0131l sonu hedefini ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.900 dolardan 5.000 dolara; gelecek y\u0131l sonu hedefini ise ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.800 dolardan 5.200 dolara y\u00fckseltti. G\u00fcncelleme, piyasadaki son hareketlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi.\n\nBanka, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilkbaharda sona erece\u011fini bekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nCommerzbank, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda yeniden faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Banka, gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131na kadar toplam 75 baz puanl\u0131k indirim bekliyor. (Baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 75 baz puan = 0,75 puan.)\n\nBanka ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019de reel faizlerin (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faiz) zamanla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine girece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nAlt\u0131ndaki son sert %15\u2019lik geri \u00e7ekilmeyi kal\u0131c\u0131 bir trend olarak de\u011fil, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in cazip bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Uzun vadeli tahmin yukar\u0131 revize edilerek 2026 sonu i\u00e7in ons ba\u015f\u0131na 5.000 dolar hedefi belirlendi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025 boyunca \u015fekillenen ekonomik ko\u015fullara dayan\u0131yor.\n\nBu beklenti, Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yeniden faiz indirimlerine d\u00f6nmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. \u015eubat 2026 tarihli son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketicinin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 mal ve hizmetlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini g\u00f6steren enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %2,8\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Son istihdam raporu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda (i\u015f bulma ve i\u015fe al\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131) so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ederek politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ihtimalini destekledi. Gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131na kadar toplam 75 baz puanl\u0131k indirim bekliyoruz.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri alt\u0131n gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon alman\u0131n zamanl\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, 2026 sonuna do\u011fru vadesi olan alt\u0131n vadeli kontratlar\u0131 veya borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ve bir endeksi ya da varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleyen fon) \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan sat\u0131n alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sat\u0131n almay\u0131 i\u00e7erebilir. Bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar, beklenen toparlanmadan yararlan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.\n\nAlt\u0131n\u0131n temel cazibesinin de jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi bekleniyor; \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n bu ilkbaharda s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fed\u2019in faiz indirmesiyle ABD reel faizlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor; bu da alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyetini\u201d (alternatif getiri kayb\u0131) azalt\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece alt\u0131n, devlet tahvillerine (kamu bor\u00e7lanma senetleri) k\u0131yasla daha cazip hale gelir.\n\n2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2019\u2019da ba\u015flayan parasal gev\u015feme d\u00f6neminde (parasal gev\u015feme: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirmesi ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 rahatlatmas\u0131) benzer bir desen g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Fed faiz indirirken ve reel faizler d\u00fc\u015ferken alt\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f, bu hareket 2020\u2019ye ta\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek, mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131n metalde yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131nda %15 geri \u00e7ekilme \u201cal\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131\u201d m\u0131? Commerzbank, Fed\u2019in 75 baz puan indirim ve d\u00fc\u015fen reel faiz beklentisiyle 2026 sonu 5.000$, 2027\u2019de 5.200$ \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43537"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43537\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}