{"id":43525,"date":"2026-03-27T18:03:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T18:03:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/nordeadan-jan-von-gerich-hisse-senetlerindeki-dususler-dolara-destek-vermedi-guvenli-liman-ozelligi-zayifliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T18:03:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T18:03:29","slug":"nordeadan-jan-von-gerich-hisse-senetlerindeki-dususler-dolara-destek-vermedi-guvenli-liman-ozelligi-zayifliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/nordeadan-jan-von-gerich-hisse-senetlerindeki-dususler-dolara-destek-vermedi-guvenli-liman-ozelligi-zayifliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Nordea\u2019dan Jan von Gerich: Hisse senetlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler Dolar\u2019a destek vermedi, g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011fi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"Hisse senedi fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmedi. Bu durum, Dolar\u2019\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (piyasalarda korku artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 para birimi) i\u015flevinin \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlere g\u00f6re zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma derinle\u015ftik\u00e7e piyasa hareketleri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u201cRiskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerine y\u00f6nelmesi) d\u00f6nemlerinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve tahvil faizleri (tahvil getirisi; tahvilin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131) Dolar\u2019a g\u00f6re daha net tepki verdi.\n\nRapor, finansal piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalara (volatilite; fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ayr\u0131ca sava\u015f\u0131n bitmesine dair g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm konusunda kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller oldu\u011funu aktar\u0131yor.\n\nHafta i\u00e7inde m\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerilerinin sunuldu\u011fu, ancak taraflar\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok uzak oldu\u011fu ve belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi ifade ediliyor.\n\nSon d\u00f6nemde borsadaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte oldu\u011fu gibi ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmedi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin S&#038;P 500 endeksindeki (ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck 500 \u015firketini izleyen hisse endeksi) bu ay ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %3\u2019l\u00fck gerileme, Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) sadece %0,2 y\u00fckseltti. Bu da Dolar\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki, hisse d\u00fc\u015ferken otomatik olarak dolar almak konusunda temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nOpsiyon (belirli bir tarihe kadar\/anda bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirli fiyattan alma-satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f anlar\u0131nda maj\u00f6r USD paritelerinde \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) pahal\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Euro veya \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 (CHF) gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 Dolar\u2019da \u201czarar kesmesi uzak al\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d satmak (out-of-the-money call; kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonu) uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir. Ayr\u0131ca, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayanan klasik \u201ckoruma\u201d (hedge; riski azaltmak i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon) y\u00f6ntemlerinin eski kadar etkili olmayabilece\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131.\n\n2025 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan geriye bak\u0131nca, 2020\u2019deki piyasa stresinde ve 2022\u2019deki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda (politika faizi y\u00fckseli\u015fi) Dolar\u2019\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ralli yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. 2026 boyunca piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu kal\u0131b\u0131 izlemedi. Bu da k\u00fcresel sermayenin g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131k aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131sal (kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filim) bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, g\u00fcncel stratejiler i\u00e7in kritik.\n\nBelirsizlik artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda para Dolar\u2019a akmak yerine ba\u015fka varl\u0131klarda g\u00fcven ar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin alt\u0131n, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde DXY\u2019yi %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duru\u015f sergiledi. Riskten korunmada bu alternatif g\u00fcvenli limanlara bak\u0131lmal\u0131.\n\nJeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, \u00f6zellikle Orta Do\u011fu, Dolar\u2019dan \u00e7ok emtia (ham madde; petrol, alt\u0131n gibi) piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX; petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) son bir ayda %12 y\u00fckseldi. Bu, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen hareketlerden daha sert. Yani yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar riski genel olarak dolara ka\u00e7mak yerine petrol gibi belirli varl\u0131klara fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nBu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fcncellemek gerekiyor: Hisse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinde Avustralya dolar\u0131 veya Kanada dolar\u0131 gibi emtia para birimlerinde (ekonomisi emtia fiyatlar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 \u00fclkelerin paras\u0131) otomatik \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (short; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) almak yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmeli. Bunun yerine t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (vadeli i\u015flem, opsiyon gibi) petrol\u00fcn oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015flem yapmak veya genel risk havas\u0131ndan daha az etkilenen \u201c\u00e7apraz\u201d paritelere (currency cross; USD i\u00e7ermeyen d\u00f6viz \u00e7ifti) odaklanmak daha verimli olabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eok: Borsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, Dolar yerinde say\u0131yor! G\u00fcvenli liman rol\u00fc zay\u0131flarken risk alt\u0131n, CHF ve petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kay\u0131yor. Klasik USD hedge\u2019leri sorgulanmal\u0131; opsiyonda OTM call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43525"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43525\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}