{"id":43512,"date":"2026-03-27T16:06:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T16:06:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbanktan-kramer-enerji-kaynakli-enflasyon-yukselirken-ecb-faizleri-bir-kez-daha-artirabilir-ardindan-gevseyebilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T16:06:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T16:06:08","slug":"commerzbanktan-kramer-enerji-kaynakli-enflasyon-yukselirken-ecb-faizleri-bir-kez-daha-artirabilir-ardindan-gevseyebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbanktan-kramer-enerji-kaynakli-enflasyon-yukselirken-ecb-faizleri-bir-kez-daha-artirabilir-ardindan-gevseyebilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank\u2019tan Kr\u00e4mer: Enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon y\u00fckselirken ECB faizleri bir kez daha art\u0131rabilir, ard\u0131ndan gev\u015feyebilir"},"content":{"rendered":"Commerzbank, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 **enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyona** (enerji fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n genel fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi) en fazla **bir ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla** yan\u0131t verece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Enflasyonun yaz aylar\u0131na kadar %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, ard\u0131ndan gerilemesi bekleniyor.\n\nBankan\u0131n temel senaryosunda, model sonucu Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2026\u2019da Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f nedeniyle **0,4 puan** d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Banka 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini, **potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme** (ekonomi tam kapasiteye yak\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131) %1 iken **%0,9\u2019dan %0,6\u2019ya** indiriyor.\n\n<h3>En Fazla Bir Art\u0131\u015f Daha<\/h3>\nBanka, ECB\u2019nin **30 Nisan** toplant\u0131s\u0131nda **politika faizini** (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye y\u00f6n veren ana faizi) art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. ECB nisan ay\u0131nda ad\u0131m atmazsa, bunun yerine **11 Haziran** toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in art\u0131\u015f sinyali verebilir.\n\nBanka, sava\u015f bitti\u011finde petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi i\u00e7in **birden fazla art\u0131\u015f\u0131n** olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Ayr\u0131ca, **vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n** (gelecekteki fiyat\/oran i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) y\u0131l sonuna kadar neredeyse **\u00fc\u00e7e yak\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131** fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun ise temel senaryoda ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\n\nAvro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ile ekonomik ger\u00e7ekler aras\u0131nda uyumsuzluk g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f, enflasyonu y\u00fckseltirken b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Bu durum ECB\u2019yi zor bir dengeye itiyor.\n\n<h3>Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131 ve B\u00fcy\u00fcme Ger\u00e7e\u011fi<\/h3>\nEurostat verileri, enerji maliyetlerinin etkisiyle \u015fubatta enflasyonun **%2,8\u2019e** y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Ancak bu bask\u0131n\u0131n yaz sonras\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. ECB a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha \u00f6nemli unsur, ekonomideki zay\u0131flama: b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l yaln\u0131zca **%0,6** olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu, potansiyelin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanmadan s\u00f6z etmek zorla\u015f\u0131yor.\n\nYava\u015flama, Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan S&#038;P Global **Bile\u015fik PMI**\u2019da (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; \u015firket anketlerinden t\u00fcretilen, 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eden \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge) son verinin **49,5\u2019e** gerilemesiyle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geldi; bu da i\u015f faaliyetinde hafif daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Benzer bir durum 2022\u2019de de ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f, ECB pandemi sonras\u0131 enflasyona \u00f6nce yava\u015f tepki verip toparlanmay\u0131 \u00f6ncelemi\u015f, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelince daha sert ad\u0131mlar atm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2025 sonundaki g\u00f6rece iyi performans\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, yeni zay\u0131fl\u0131k ECB\u2019nin **\u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d \u00fcyelerine** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha temkinli yakla\u015fan, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceleyen politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar) dikkatli olma gerek\u00e7esi veriyor.\n\nBu tablo alt\u0131nda, vadeli piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 tam faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 abart\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ECB\u2019nin en fazla bir art\u0131\u015f yap\u0131p (muhtemelen nisan ya da haziranda) ard\u0131ndan ekonomideki hasar\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in beklemesi bekleniyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n, ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6r\u00fclen enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon i\u00e7in ekonomiyi resesyona (ekonomide genel daralma) s\u00fcr\u00fckleme riskini almak istemeyece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\n**T\u00fcrev i\u015flem** yapanlar i\u00e7in (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n faiz, kur gibi bir g\u00f6sterge oldu\u011fu s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu, **faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinin** \u00f6rne\u011fin **EURIBOR** (Euro bankalararas\u0131 referans faiz oran\u0131) temelli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha az faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Bu da ECB\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin duru\u015fu netle\u015ftik\u00e7e fiyatlaman\u0131n yeniden ayarlanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nPiyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha az s\u0131k\u0131 bir ECB, muhtemelen Euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Bu, \u00f6zellikle Euro\u2019nun, merkez bankas\u0131 daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli, enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi \u00f6ne alan) kalan para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan faydalanan **kur opsiyonu** (belirli tarihte\/\u00f6ncesinde belirli kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) stratejileri i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar do\u011furabilir. Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, **EUR\/USD** paritesinde \u00f6nemli bir belirleyici olabilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasaya ters k\u00f6\u015fe: Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re ECB, Ortado\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 enerji enflasyonuna en fazla bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla yan\u0131t verecek. Enflasyon yaz\u0131n %3\u2019\u00fc a\u015far, b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2026\u2019da 0,4 puan d\u00fc\u015fer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43512"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43512\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}