{"id":43489,"date":"2026-03-27T10:05:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T10:05:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/standard-chartered-ekonomistlerine-gore-abd-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-yukselisi-yonetebilir-1970ler-tarzi-stagflasyon-riskinden-kacinabilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T10:05:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T10:05:05","slug":"standard-chartered-ekonomistlerine-gore-abd-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-yukselisi-yonetebilir-1970ler-tarzi-stagflasyon-riskinden-kacinabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/standard-chartered-ekonomistlerine-gore-abd-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-yukselisi-yonetebilir-1970ler-tarzi-stagflasyon-riskinden-kacinabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered ekonomistlerine g\u00f6re ABD petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi y\u00f6netebilir, 1970\u2019ler tarz\u0131 stagflasyon riskinden ka\u00e7\u0131nabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"Standard Chartered ekonomistleri Dan Pan ve Steve Englander, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son y\u00fckseli\u015fin ABD\u2019de 1970\u2019ler tarz\u0131 **stagflasyona** (y\u00fcksek enflasyonla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131) yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Man\u015fet enflasyonda (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemleri i\u00e7eren genel enflasyon) tek seferlik bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyorlar; **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon** (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7 daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) ve **GSYH** (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) \u00fczerindeki etkinin ise daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 so\u011furken ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.\n\nEkonomistler, ABD\u2019nin enerji t\u00fcketiminin 2000\u2019lerin sonundan bu yana yatay seyretti\u011fini, enerji harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firket b\u00fct\u00e7elerinde daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck pay tuttu\u011funu belirtiyor. Son iki y\u0131lda daha zay\u0131f bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na da i\u015faret ederek, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyorlar.\n\n2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha geni\u015f bir **\u00fcretim a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131** (ekonominin kapasitesinin alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) oldu\u011funu, bu nedenle \u015fokun daha \u00e7ok enflasyon yerine **reel \u00fccretlerde** (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00fccret) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar. Baz senaryolar\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in **FRBUS modeli** (Fed\u2019in ekonomiyi tahmin etmekte kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 makro model) ile man\u015fet **PCE**\u2019nin (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) 2. \u00e7eyrekte %3,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini belirtiyorlar.\n\n\u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun yak\u0131n vadede y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,0 civar\u0131nda tak\u0131l\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini, ard\u0131ndan 4. \u00e7eyrekte yataya d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini tahmin ediyorlar. \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,5\u2019in biraz \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini, b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde negatif etki olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyorlar.\n\nPiyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l i\u00e7in beklenen Fed faiz indirimlerini 50 baz puandan (bps; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri) fazla geri ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve art\u0131k k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini de fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktar\u0131yorlar. Modele g\u00f6re, k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon riskini daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin dengeledi\u011fini; bu nedenle karar vericilerin daha net kan\u0131t bekleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar.\n\nSon petrol fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, baz\u0131lar\u0131nca korkulan stagflasyon \u015foku g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc vermiyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan Brent petrol, daha sonra 95 dolar civar\u0131nda bir bantta dengelendi. Enerjinin t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131ndaki pay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %4\u2019e gerilemi\u015f durumda; bu oran 1970\u2019lerdeki \u015foklarda %8\u2019in \u00fczerindeydi. Bu da ABD ekonomisinin daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n man\u015fet enflasyona daha \u00e7ok tek seferlik bir darbe vurmas\u0131, di\u011fer fiyatlara s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yans\u0131mas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131 man\u015fet PCE verisi bu tabloyu destekledi: y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselirken \u00e7ekirdek PCE %2,8\u2019de kald\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2025\u2019ten bu yana i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen yumu\u015faman\u0131n temel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.\n\nBu ortam, Fed\u2019in ge\u00e7en haftaki toplant\u0131da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Piyasa 2025\u2019te beklenen sert faiz indirimleri senaryosundan uzakla\u015fsa da yeni bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6nemi de \u015fu a\u015famada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu da **faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 satma** (faizlerin sert dalgalanmayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle, faize ba\u011fl\u0131 dalgalanma \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alma) stratejisine i\u015faret ediyor; Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 sinyali vermeden \u00f6nce daha fazla veri beklemeyi tercih etti\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama ABD\u2019yi 70\u2019ler stagflasyonuna s\u00fcr\u00fckler mi? Standard Chartered\u2019a g\u00f6re hay\u0131r: man\u015fet PCE\u2019de ge\u00e7ici art\u0131\u015f, \u00e7ekirdekte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etki; Fed bekle-g\u00f6r, b\u00fcy\u00fcme darbesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43489"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43489\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}