{"id":43481,"date":"2026-03-27T08:06:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T08:06:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/birlesik-krallikta-perakende-satislar-subatta-aylik-bazda-yuzde-04-geriledi-yuzde-08-dusus-beklentisinin-uzerinde-gerceklesti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T08:06:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T08:06:02","slug":"birlesik-krallikta-perakende-satislar-subatta-aylik-bazda-yuzde-04-geriledi-yuzde-08-dusus-beklentisinin-uzerinde-gerceklesti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/birlesik-krallikta-perakende-satislar-subatta-aylik-bazda-yuzde-04-geriledi-yuzde-08-dusus-beklentisinin-uzerinde-gerceklesti\/","title":{"rendered":"Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta perakende sat\u0131\u015flar \u015fubatta ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,4 geriledi; y\u00fczde 0,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti"},"content":{"rendered":"Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta perakende sat\u0131\u015flar \u015fubatta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu, beklenen %0,8\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften daha iyi bir tablo.\n\nBu sonu\u00e7, sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ay i\u00e7inde tahmin edilenden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yine de ocak ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var.\n\n\u015eubat ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, bekledi\u011fimizden \u00e7ok daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir gerilemeye i\u015faret ederek, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k t\u00fcketicisinin piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu beklenmedik g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank of England – BoE) yaz gelmeden faiz indirece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yayg\u0131n kan\u0131y\u0131 zorluyor. Bu nedenle, para politikas\u0131nda (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) olas\u0131 gev\u015femenin zamanlamas\u0131na dair varsay\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmemiz gerekiyor.\n\nBu rapor, son enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nemli. S\u00f6z konusu veriler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin (CPI\/T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) %3,1 seviyesinde \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yava\u015f ilerledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran BoE\u2019nin %2 hedefinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde. May\u0131sta faiz indirimi beklentisi zaten zay\u0131flad\u0131; gecelik endeksli swap i\u015flemleri (overnight index swaps: k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) art\u0131k %45\u2019ten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; iki hafta \u00f6nce bu oran %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeydi. Veriler, talebin (harcama iste\u011fi) Banka\u2019n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ad\u0131m atmas\u0131na yetecek kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fumad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.\n\nD\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda bunu Sterlin\u2019i (GBP) tercih etmek i\u00e7in net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6rmek gerekir. BoE beklentilerinin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, yani faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 ihtimali) \u015fekilde yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131, GBP\/USD paritesini ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,2950 diren\u00e7 seviyesine (diren\u00e7: fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) itebilir. Sterlin\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 muhtemel.\n\nFaiz i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar\u0131n daha cazip hale geldi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Haziran ve Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadeli k\u0131sa sterlin vadeli i\u015flem (SONIA: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de gecelik faiz referans\u0131; bu referansa dayal\u0131 faiz vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak, bu senaryoya do\u011frudan oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k getiri e\u011frisinin (yield curve: farkl\u0131 vadelerde devlet tahvili faizlerinin \u00e7izgisi) k\u0131sa ucunun yukar\u0131 kaymas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz tablo: \u0130ngiltere perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u015fubatta %0,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; beklentiden iyi. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 talep ve %3,1 T\u00dcFE, BoE\u2019nin erken faiz indirimini zorluyor; Sterlin ve \u015fahin fiyatlama \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43481\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}