{"id":43473,"date":"2026-03-27T07:09:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T07:09:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/iran-kaynakli-petrol-soku-ortaminda-gbp-usd-dalgali-islemlerde-13340a-dogru-geriliyor-ingiltere-merkez-bankasinin-faiz-gorunumu-belirsizlesiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T07:09:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T07:09:08","slug":"iran-kaynakli-petrol-soku-ortaminda-gbp-usd-dalgali-islemlerde-13340a-dogru-geriliyor-ingiltere-merkez-bankasinin-faiz-gorunumu-belirsizlesiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/iran-kaynakli-petrol-soku-ortaminda-gbp-usd-dalgali-islemlerde-13340a-dogru-geriliyor-ingiltere-merkez-bankasinin-faiz-gorunumu-belirsizlesiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 petrol \u015foku ortam\u0131nda GBP\/USD, dalgal\u0131 i\u015flemlerde 1,3340\u2019a do\u011fru geriliyor; \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirsizle\u015fiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"GBP\/USD, dalgal\u0131 ge\u00e7en seans\u0131n ard\u0131ndan per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,1 gerileyerek 1,3340 seviyesine indi. Parite mart ay\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde 1,3230-1,3430 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 pip; pip kurdaki en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck standart fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r) gidip geldi. Ocak sonundaki 1,3820 zirvesinden bu yana ise \u201cdaha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tepeler\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinin her seferinde daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 seviyede kalmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nABD seans\u0131nda parite k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 1,3310\u2019a do\u011fru sarksa da toparland\u0131. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), 19 Mart\u2019ta politika faizi olan Bank Rate\u2019i %3,75\u2019te oybirli\u011fiyle sabit tuttu. \u015eubatta 5-4 b\u00f6l\u00fcnen oylamaya k\u0131yasla bu kez t\u00fcm \u00fcyelerin ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde oy kullanmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekti.\n\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Sinyalleri Ve Piyasa Fiyatlamas\u0131<\/h3>\nT\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) enflasyonu \u015fubatta %3\u2019te kald\u0131. BoE, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde enflasyonun %3,5\u2019e y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini belirtti. Daha \u00f6nce iki faiz indirimi fiyatlayan piyasalar, art\u0131k faizlerin 2026 boyunca sabit kalabilece\u011fini veya artabilece\u011fini konu\u015fuyor.\n\n\u0130ngiltere\u2019de beklenen veriler aras\u0131nda \u015fubat perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (piyasa beklentisi ayl\u0131k -%0,8) ve mart GfK t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni var (ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen -21; beklenti -24). ABD\u2019de Fed faizi %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Fed\u2019in \u201cdot plot\u201du (FOMC \u00fcyelerinin ileride bekledi\u011fi faiz seviyelerini g\u00f6steren noktasal grafik) bu y\u0131l bir indirim sinyali verdi.\n\n\u0130lk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 210 bin ile beklentiye paralel geldi. ABD\u2019de s\u0131radaki veriler: Michigan \u00dcniversitesi (UoM) t\u00fcketici hissiyat\u0131 (beklenti 54, \u00f6nceki 55,5) ve 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi (beklenti %3,4).\n\nGrafiklerde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler: 1,3335, 1,3330, 1,3320, 1,3342, 1,3350, 1,3370, 1,3430, 1,3500 ve 1,3250. Sterlinin tarihi 886 y\u0131l\u0131na dayan\u0131r. 2022\u2019de g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 630 milyar dolarl\u0131k i\u015flem hacmiyle k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n (FX; d\u00f6viz i\u015flemleri) %12\u2019sini olu\u015fturup en \u00e7ok i\u015flem g\u00f6ren d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc para birimidir. \u0130\u015flem da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda GBP\/USD %11, GBP\/JPY %3, EUR\/GBP %2\u2019dir.\n\n

Jeopolitik, Enerji Ve Sterlinde Oynakl\u0131k<\/h3>\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f, \u0130ngiltere faizlerine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Brent petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 son d\u00f6rt haftada %18 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu seviye 2024 sonlar\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu durum \u201carz kaynakl\u0131 \u015fok\u201dtur (\u00fcretim\/tedarik bozuldu\u011fu i\u00e7in maliyetlerin y\u00fckselmesi) ve zay\u0131flayan ekonomiye ra\u011fmen BoE\u2019yi faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye itiyor. Piyasalar art\u0131k 2026 i\u00e7in \u201cs\u0131f\u0131r indirim\u201d senaryosunu fiyatl\u0131yor.\n\nBug\u00fcnk\u00fc verilerin \u0130ngiliz t\u00fcketici \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 teyit etmesi bekleniyor; \u015fubat perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n negatif gelmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu beklenti, ocakta g\u00f6r\u00fclen %0,5\u2019lik daralma sonras\u0131 olu\u015ftu. Artan enerji maliyetleri ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131, t\u00fcketiciyi s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme birlikteli\u011fi (stagflasyon benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm), BoE ve sterlin i\u00e7in zorlu bir tablo yarat\u0131yor.\n\nParitenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in duru\u015fu daha net: ge\u00e7en haftaki dot plot, 2026 i\u00e7in bir faiz indirimi sinyalini koruyor. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Michigan \u00dcniversitesi raporunda enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fcksek gelirse Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015fu g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir; bu da dolar\u0131 destekleyip GBP\/USD\u2019yi son d\u00f6nemdeki band\u0131n alt\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.\n\nYakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3230-1,3430 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyir nedeniyle, 1,3450 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmak, opsiyon primi (sat\u0131\u015ftan elde edilen gelir) toplamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilecek bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu strateji, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131r ve fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde ya da yatay kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda avantaj sa\u011flar.\n\nAlternatif olarak artan jeopolitik risk, \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201dta (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseli\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6nemlerinde benzer \u015fekilde kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan piyasa yeni denge bulmu\u015ftu. Bu nedenle \u201coynakl\u0131k uzun\u201d stratejileri, \u00f6rne\u011fin straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket bekleyen strateji) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.\n\nDaha do\u011frudan i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in 1,3430 seviyesi izlenmeli. Buras\u0131 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor (son 50 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131; trend g\u00f6stergesi). Bu \u201cteknik diren\u00e7\u201din (y\u00fckseli\u015fi durdurma e\u011filimindeki seviye) net bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,3250 destek b\u00f6lgesine (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131mlar\u0131n geldi\u011fi alan) geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131r.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sterlin\/dolar 1,3340\u2019a gerilerken bant s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor: BoE petrol \u015fokuyla \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz\u201de yak\u0131n, Fed temkinli. 1,3430 diren\u00e7 a\u015f\u0131lamazsa 1,3250 hedef; opsiyonda prim\/oynakl\u0131k stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43473\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}