{"id":31297,"date":"2026-03-27T05:04:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T05:04:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/enerji-maliyetleri-ve-ticaret-acigi-usd-thbyi-3265e-tasidi-commerzbank-ekonomistleri-henry-hao-ve-moses-lime-gore\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T05:04:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T05:04:19","slug":"enerji-maliyetleri-ve-ticaret-acigi-usd-thbyi-3265e-tasidi-commerzbank-ekonomistleri-henry-hao-ve-moses-lime-gore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/enerji-maliyetleri-ve-ticaret-acigi-usd-thbyi-3265e-tasidi-commerzbank-ekonomistleri-henry-hao-ve-moses-lime-gore\/","title":{"rendered":"Enerji maliyetleri ve ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 USD\/THB\u2019yi 32,65\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, Commerzbank ekonomistleri Henry Hao ve Moses Lim\u2019e g\u00f6re"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/THB %0,3 y\u00fckselerek 32,65\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana enerji fiyatlar\u0131 artarken alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 geriledi\u011fi i\u00e7in parite (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrediyor. Baht y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %3,5 de\u011fer kaybetti. Japonya hari\u00e7 Asya para birimlerinde ortalama hareket ise %-1,3 oldu.\n\n\u015eubat ihracat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re) %9,9 artt\u0131. Bu oran Bloomberg beklentisi olan %17,0\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ocak\u2019taki %24,4\u2019ten de gerileyerek son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en zay\u0131f art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu. Ticaret Politikas\u0131 ve Strateji Ofisi (TPSO), ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde hem yukar\u0131 hem a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler oldu\u011funu bildirdi.\n\n<h3>Key Trade And Currency Drivers<\/h3>\n\u0130thalat y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %31,8 artt\u0131. Bloomberg beklentisi %25,0\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Ocak\u2019taki %29,4\u2019ten h\u0131zlanarak Aral\u0131k 2021\u2019den bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Sermaye mallar\u0131 (makine-te\u00e7hizat gibi yat\u0131r\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) %49,3 y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6nceki veri %29,5\u2019ti. Ara mal\u0131 (\u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan girdiler) ithalat\u0131 %53,3 artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki veri %20,3\u2019t\u00fc. Bu, A\u011fustos 2021\u2019den bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f oldu.\n\nTayland\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi (ihracat-ithalat fark\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k -2,8 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131kta kald\u0131. Bloomberg beklentisi +1,0 milyar dolar fazlayd\u0131. Ocak\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131k -3,3 milyar dolard\u0131. Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2026 ihracat\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %-3,1 ile %+1,1 aras\u0131nda verdi; Nisan\u2019da g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irme yap\u0131lacak.\n\nTPSO, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc sava\u015f\u0131n etkilerine ve ABD ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Temmuz\u2019da sona erecek %10\u2019luk k\u00fcresel g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi (tarife: ithalata uygulanan vergi) \u00f6ncesinde sevkiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekip \u00e7ekmeyece\u011fine ba\u011flad\u0131. Haberde metnin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtildi.\n\nTayland Baht\u0131, b\u00f6lgedeki benzer para birimlerine g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131f. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Baht\u2019ta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklentisiyle) pozisyonlar\u0131n artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel enerji maliyetlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, zay\u0131f performans\u0131n temel nedenleri. Bu nedenle USD\/THB paritesindeki mevcut yukar\u0131 e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\nBrent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131k\u00e7a Tayland\u2019\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131 y\u00fcksek kalacak ve cari denge (\u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n genel fark\u0131) \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artacak. Faiz fark\u0131 da \u00f6nemli: Tayland Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u015eubat 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %2,50\u2019de tuttu. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ise s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 \u00e7izgisini koruyor. Bu tablo, Baht yerine ABD dolar\u0131 tutmay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Options Strategy And Volatility Setup<\/h3>\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1-2 ay vadeli USD\/THB al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sat\u0131n almak, 33,00 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareketi hedeflemek i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Bu strateji, riskin \u00f6nceden belli olmas\u0131n\u0131 (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131) sa\u011flarken mevcut momentumdan yararlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2022 ortas\u0131nda enerji maliyetlerindeki s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n pariteyi 36\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine itti\u011fi d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.\n\nSermaye mallar\u0131 ve ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, k\u0131sa vadede d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini bozuyor. Ancak yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Bu tablo, 2025 sonlar\u0131nda siyasi ortam\u0131n sakinle\u015fmesi sonras\u0131 \u015firketlerin yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da ileride \u00fcretim ve ihracatta toparlanma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. \u0130hracat verisinde ani bir iyile\u015fme, Baht\u2019taki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilir.\n\n\u0130hracat tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %-3,1 ile %+1,1 gibi geni\u015f olmas\u0131, piyasadaki belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Temmuz\u2019daki ABD tarifesinin biti\u015fi gibi iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131 gibi stratejilerin kazan\u00e7l\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Enerji ithalat\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 Baht\u2019\u0131 zorluyor: USD\/THB 32,65\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130hracat beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131ramad\u0131, ithalat s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. 33,00 hedefli opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31297","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31297"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31297\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}