{"id":31271,"date":"2026-03-26T23:03:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T23:03:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/francesco-pesole-enflasyon-endiseleriyle-norges-bankin-sahinlesmesi-noku-destekliyor-bir-faiz-artisi-bekleniyor-ing-de-bir-artis-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T23:03:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T23:03:04","slug":"francesco-pesole-enflasyon-endiseleriyle-norges-bankin-sahinlesmesi-noku-destekliyor-bir-faiz-artisi-bekleniyor-ing-de-bir-artis-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/francesco-pesole-enflasyon-endiseleriyle-norges-bankin-sahinlesmesi-noku-destekliyor-bir-faiz-artisi-bekleniyor-ing-de-bir-artis-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Francesco Pesole: Enflasyon endi\u015feleriyle Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n \u015fahinle\u015fmesi NOK\u2019u destekliyor; bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor, ING de bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Norges Bank, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sadece enerji \u015fokuyla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, daha geni\u015f bir alana yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayarak daha **\u015fahin** (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Bankan\u0131n yeni tahminleri art\u0131k en az bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor. ING ise petrol ve gaz i\u00e7in **daha zay\u0131f senaryo**su (fiyatlar\u0131n\/dengenin daha olumsuz oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m) ve EUR\/NOK\u2019un a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc nedeniyle tek hamle bekliyor.\n\nToplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k NOK **swap** faizleri (taraflar\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi faiz s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinin oran\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 **baz puan** (bp = y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 10bp = 0,10 puan) y\u00fckseldi. B\u00f6ylece sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana art\u0131\u015f +43bp\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hareket, piyasalar\u0131n ton ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na dair daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u015fa\u015f\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBanka, yayg\u0131n enflasyon risklerine ve enflasyonu y\u00fcksek tutabilecek di\u011fer unsurlara dikkat \u00e7ekti. Ayr\u0131ca faiz art\u0131rmaman\u0131n kronu zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fini ve ithal enflasyondaki (d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn etkisini azaltabilece\u011fini uyard\u0131.\n\nPiyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 May\u0131s i\u00e7in 16bp, Haziran i\u00e7in 33bp **s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma** (faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi\/para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) ima ediyor. Son toplant\u0131da baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 desteklemesi nedeniyle May\u0131s, daha sonraya k\u0131yasla daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\nNOK swap **e\u011frisi** (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki swap faizlerinin \u00e7izdi\u011fi yap\u0131) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131l i\u00e7in 60bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor; iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olsa da ING\u2019nin ana beklentisi tek art\u0131\u015f. Politika faizi %4,0 seviyesinde ve Norges Bank enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,5\u2019te zirve yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. K\u0131sa vadeli NOK swap faizleri i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler de bulunuyor.\n\nNorve\u00e7\u2019in \u015eubat 2026 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) beklenmedik \u015fekilde %3,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda olu\u015fan yayg\u0131n fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na benziyor.\n\n2022\u2019de bankan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fiyi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131n swap faizlerini sert yukar\u0131 itti\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. O d\u00f6nemde kurul, daha zay\u0131f bir kronun enflasyonist bir risk oldu\u011funu ve buna izin vermeyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtmi\u015fti. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, bankan\u0131n kurdaki zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve ithal enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in yine kararl\u0131 davranabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nPiyasa, Haziran 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %25 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle daha \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprize pozisyon alman\u0131n de\u011ferli olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. K\u0131sa vadeli NOK swap faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in **payer swap** (sabit faiz \u00f6deyip de\u011fi\u015fken faiz alan; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle kullan\u0131lan swap pozisyonu) yapmak veya k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri almak gibi se\u00e7enekler do\u011furuyor. Riskin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda keskin bir yukar\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamaya kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 43bp\u2019lik harekete benzer olabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Norges Bank\u2019tan \u015fahin sinyal: Enflasyon enerjiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fil, en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatland\u0131. NOK swaplar s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, e\u011fri 60bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma diyor. May\u0131s daha olas\u0131; kur ve ithal enflasyon riski. ING tek art\u0131r\u0131m bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31271","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31271"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31271\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}