{"id":31258,"date":"2026-03-26T20:01:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T20:01:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bnyden-bob-savage-bundesbank-baskani-nagel-enerji-kaynakli-enflasyon-riskleri-nedeniyle-ecbnin-nisan-ayinda-faiz-artisina-gidebilecegini-destekleyebilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T20:01:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T20:01:28","slug":"bnyden-bob-savage-bundesbank-baskani-nagel-enerji-kaynakli-enflasyon-riskleri-nedeniyle-ecbnin-nisan-ayinda-faiz-artisina-gidebilecegini-destekleyebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bnyden-bob-savage-bundesbank-baskani-nagel-enerji-kaynakli-enflasyon-riskleri-nedeniyle-ecbnin-nisan-ayinda-faiz-artisina-gidebilecegini-destekleyebilir\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019den Bob Savage: Bundesbank Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Nagel, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle ECB\u2019nin nisan ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidebilece\u011fini destekleyebilir"},"content":{"rendered":"Bundesbank Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joachim Nagel, y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (**petrol ve do\u011falgaz**) enflasyon (**genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131**) riskini art\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) Nisan ay\u0131nda bile faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Nagel, bu riski petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fe ve **H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131na** ba\u011fl\u0131 arz kesintisi (**tedarik zincirinde aksama**) ihtimaline ba\u011flad\u0131.\n\nNagel, ECB\u2019nin 29\u201330 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar (faizi art\u0131rma anlam\u0131na gelen) **para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma** karar\u0131 i\u00e7in yeterli veriye sahip olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ya ad\u0131m atacaklar\u0131n\u0131 ya da bekleyeceklerini belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n erken \u015fekilde tamamen d\u0131\u015flanmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.\n\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi Para Arz\u0131 Sinyalleri<\/h3>\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne ili\u015fkin parasal veriler \u015eubat\u2019ta ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. **M3** (ekonomideki toplam para ve mevduat gibi geni\u015f para g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %3,2\u2019den %3,0\u2019a gerilerken, **M1** (daha h\u0131zl\u0131 harcanabilen para; nakit ve vadesiz mevduat gibi dar para g\u00f6stergesi) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %5,2\u2019den %4,8\u2019e indi.\n\nVeriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi genelinde kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sakin seyrederken **likidite** ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n (piyasada kolay al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilen nakit benzeri imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n) daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n kredi davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na etkisi ise hen\u00fcz net de\u011fil.\n\nEuro, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in belirsizlik yaratan iki kar\u015f\u0131t etki aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bir yanda Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan endi\u015fe eden merkez bankac\u0131lar\u0131ndan gelen **\u015fahin** mesajlar (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n ton) var; di\u011fer yanda \u00f6nemli veriler parasal ivmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. S\u00f6zler ile veriler aras\u0131ndaki bu gerilim, para biriminde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (**fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131**) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n

Oynakl\u0131\u011fa Y\u00f6nelik \u0130\u015flemler<\/h3>\n**T\u00fcrev** yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde i\u015flem yapanlar) i\u00e7in bu tablo, y\u00f6n tahmininden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazanmay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejileri g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Euro\u2019da \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almak\u201d (\u00f6rne\u011fin opsiyonlarla dalgalanma beklentisine pozisyon almak) mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa ya s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ya da ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n teyidine sert tepki verebilir. \u00d6nemli olan belirli bir y\u00f6ne iddia etmekten \u00e7ok, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmakt\u0131r.\n\nBu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ay ba\u015f\u0131ndaki enflasyon verileriyle de destekleniyor: **Man\u015fet enflasyon** (enerji ve g\u0131da dahil genel oran) enerji maliyetleriyle %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon** (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 daha kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filim) %2,5\u2019e geriledi. Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k tablo, ECB i\u00e7indeki \u015fahinlere de **g\u00fcvercinlere** (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha mesafeli, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceleyen ton) de arg\u00fcman vererek piyasan\u0131n karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle **straddle** gibi opsiyon stratejileri (fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z, b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket bekleyerek hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma) daha anlaml\u0131 hale geliyor.\n\nJeopolitik risk sadece teorik de\u011fil: Ge\u00e7en hafta **Brent petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131** (ileride teslim edilecek petrol i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda bir petrol tankerinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli al\u0131konulmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi. Bu t\u00fcr olaylar, Nagel\u2019in enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 Nisan\u2019da olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha somut hale getiriyor; piyasan\u0131n bu ihtimali fiyatlamas\u0131 gerekiyor.\n\nFaiz piyasalar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, **vadeli i\u015flem piyasas\u0131** \u015fu anda Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda **25 baz puan**l\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na sadece yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor. Bu fiyatlama, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kendi de\u011ferlendirmelerine g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131 i\u00e7in imk\u00e2n yarat\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin **EURIBOR vadeli kontratlar\u0131** (Euro B\u00f6lgesi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinden, piyasan\u0131n ECB\u2019nin gelecek ay ad\u0131m atma ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck m\u00fc y\u00fcksek mi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015flem yap\u0131labilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar tetikte: Nagel, enerji \u015foku ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskiyle ECB\u2019nin Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Para arz\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, euro s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; oynakl\u0131k ve straddle stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31258\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}