{"id":31255,"date":"2026-03-26T19:01:43","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T19:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/hsbc-piyasalarin-rbnzden-ilave-sikilasma-beklentisini-fiyatlamasina-ragmen-nzdnin-yakin-vadede-usd-karsisinda-baski-altinda-kalacagini-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T19:01:43","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T19:01:43","slug":"hsbc-piyasalarin-rbnzden-ilave-sikilasma-beklentisini-fiyatlamasina-ragmen-nzdnin-yakin-vadede-usd-karsisinda-baski-altinda-kalacagini-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hsbc-piyasalarin-rbnzden-ilave-sikilasma-beklentisini-fiyatlamasina-ragmen-nzdnin-yakin-vadede-usd-karsisinda-baski-altinda-kalacagini-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"HSBC, piyasalar\u0131n RBNZ\u2019den ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisini fiyatlamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen NZD\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"HSBC Global Research, Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n (NZD) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131 (USD) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Piyasalar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7inde Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi) fiyatlamaya devam ediyor.\n\nRBNZ\u2019nin 8 Nisan\u2019da toplant\u0131 yapmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Politika faizinin %2,25\u2019te sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor (Bloomberg, 25 Mart 2026). Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 artan petrol ve do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131, yerel tahvil getirilerini y\u00fckseltti ve beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na katk\u0131 verdi.\n\n<h3>K\u0131sa Vadeli NZD\/USD G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nYeni Zelanda faizleri, Avustralya faizlerine k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Bu durum NZD\u2019nin Avustralya dolar\u0131 (AUD) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini destekledi. Buna ra\u011fmen, RBNZ piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha istekli) bir mesaj vermezse NZD\/USD\u2019nin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nYeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Bu ay NZD\/USD\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,6150 seviyesine do\u011fru geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bunun ana nedeni, ABD\u2019den gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilerin ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesi. \u00d6rne\u011fin ge\u00e7en haftaki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yarat\u0131lan net i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri) 250 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu e\u011filimin, RBNZ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.\n\nPiyasalar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l daha fazla RBNZ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklese de bu beklenti zaten kura yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 ve 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyrek enflasyonunun %3,8 ile y\u00fcksek seyretmesi, gelecekteki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, faizin %2,25\u2019te sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi 8 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n NZD\u2019ye yeni bir destek sa\u011flamas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\nBuna g\u00f6re, Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sonraya vadeli NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, kurda ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir strateji olabilir. (Sat\u0131m\/put opsiyonu, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 verir; kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazan\u0131r.) Piyasa RBNZ\u2019nin olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 zaten fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, bu opsiyonlarda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalm\u0131\u015f olabilir. RBNZ beklendi\u011fi gibi faizi sabit tutarsa, \u201coynakl\u0131k satmak\u201d (kur dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan i\u015flem) k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa strangle gibi stratejilerle. (K\u0131sa strangle, ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p kurun dar bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen, riskli bir opsiyon stratejisidir.)\n\n<h3>Avustralya Dolar\u0131na G\u00f6re G\u00f6receli De\u011fer<\/h3>\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, NZD\u2019nin Avustralya dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n iki y\u0131ll\u0131k swap faizleri (faiz takas\u0131\/swap: sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi piyasa faizi g\u00f6stergesi) Avustralya\u2019ya k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. B\u00f6ylece \u201cgetiri fark\u0131\u201d (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) Yeni Zelanda lehine a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Bu durum, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6reli faiz avantaj\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan bir \u201c\u00e7ift i\u015flem\u201d (pair trade: iki para biriminde z\u0131t y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonla farktan getiri hedefi) olarak forward s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle (vadeli kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) NZD\/AUD uzun pozisyonunu cazip k\u0131labilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>HSBC uyar\u0131yor: NZD\/USD\u2019de bask\u0131 s\u00fcrebilir. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri dolar\u0131 desteklerken, 8 Nisan\u2019da RBNZ\u2019nin %2,25\u2019te kalmas\u0131 yeni kataliz\u00f6r yaratmayabilir; put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31255\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}