{"id":31244,"date":"2026-03-26T16:04:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T16:04:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/pesole-boenin-aciklamalarinin-karisik-ancak-agirlikli-olarak-sahin-oldugunu-soyluyor-gerilimlerin-azalmasi-halinde-guvercin-yeniden-fiyatlama-eur-gbpyi-yukari-tasiyabilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T16:04:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T16:04:02","slug":"pesole-boenin-aciklamalarinin-karisik-ancak-agirlikli-olarak-sahin-oldugunu-soyluyor-gerilimlerin-azalmasi-halinde-guvercin-yeniden-fiyatlama-eur-gbpyi-yukari-tasiyabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/pesole-boenin-aciklamalarinin-karisik-ancak-agirlikli-olarak-sahin-oldugunu-soyluyor-gerilimlerin-azalmasi-halinde-guvercin-yeniden-fiyatlama-eur-gbpyi-yukari-tasiyabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Pesole, BoE\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ancak a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak \u015fahin oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor; gerilimlerin azalmas\u0131 halinde g\u00fcvercin yeniden fiyatlama EUR\/GBP\u2019yi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"ING\u2019den Francesco Pesole, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (MPC) \u00fcyeleri Sarah Breeden, Alan Taylor ve Megan Greene\u2019in mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 izliyor. Pesole, Greene ve Breeden\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ama \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz indirimi yerine faizi y\u00fcksek tutmaya daha yatk\u0131n) tarafa yak\u0131n bulurken, Taylor\u2019\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi ya da daha gev\u015fek politika yanl\u0131s\u0131) duru\u015funu korudu\u011funu belirtiyor.\n\nGreene, enflasyona (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na) ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini yineledi. Breeden ise ge\u00e7en haftaki toplant\u0131da enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ani s\u0131\u00e7rama olmasayd\u0131 faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy verebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n genel tonu \u015fahin kald\u0131.\n\n

BoE Mesajlar\u0131 Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k Bir E\u011filime \u0130\u015faret Ediyor<\/h3>\nTaylor, ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00fcvercin kalan tek MPC \u00fcyesi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ge\u00e7ici enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n orta vadeli enflasyon \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkisi oldu\u011funu ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131tan\u0131n (gereken ko\u015fullar\u0131n) y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.\n\nPesole\u2019a g\u00f6re gerilimin azalmas\u0131 senaryosu, \u0130ngiltere faiz beklentilerinde daha g\u00fcvercin y\u00f6nde yeniden fiyatlamaya (piyasan\u0131n yeni beklentiye g\u00f6re fiyatlar\u0131 ayarlamas\u0131na) alan a\u00e7abilir; bu da Sterlin e\u011frisini (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki kur\/faiz beklentilerinin \u015fekillenmesini) etkileyebilir. Pesole, baz senaryosunda EUR\/GBP\u2019nin (euro\/sterlin paritesi) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 0,8700 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ngiltere faiz beklentilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ayarland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\n2025\u2019te, daha \u00f6nce olduk\u00e7a \u015fahin olan Greene ve Breeden gibi BoE \u00fcyelerinden g\u00fcvercin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali bekleniyordu. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim \u015fimdi daha yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu ge\u00e7en ayki veriye g\u00f6re %2,5\u2019e gerileyerek ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu ortam, piyasan\u0131n bu yaz ba\u015flayabilecek faiz indirimlerinin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.\n\n

Eur Gbp Pozisyonlanmas\u0131na Etkileri<\/h3>\nPiyasan\u0131n temkinli olmas\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kalmas\u0131 (kolay gerilememesi) ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 seviyesinde seyretmesi; bu da merkez bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir risk. Ancak BoE\u2019nin Mart 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 faizi sabit tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 7-2\u2019ye geni\u015fledi; iki \u00fcye art\u0131k aktif \u015fekilde faiz indirimi i\u00e7in oy veriyor. Tarihsel olarak, iki \u00fcyenin indirimi savunacak \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131 oy vermesi, genelde sonraki iki toplant\u0131 i\u00e7inde daha net bir politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc (faiz indirimi s\u00fcrecine ge\u00e7i\u015fi) beraberinde getiriyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011ferini kur\/faiz gibi bir ba\u015fka varl\u0131ktan alan finansal ara\u00e7) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u0130ngiltere faiz beklentileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gelirken sterlinin euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. EUR\/GBP\u2019de 0,8700 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcr kabul edilen fiyat seviyesi) ve Haziran 2026 vadeli (expiry: s\u00f6zle\u015fmenin sona erme tarihi) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe do\u011frudan bir strateji olur. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, BoE\u2019nin faiz indiriminin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmesi halinde paritede sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk (kayb\u0131n \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131) sunar.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/GBP\u2019nin 0,8700 \u00fczerine ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc korunuyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) da faiz indirim patikas\u0131nda, ancak Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ad\u0131mlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde piyasada beklenen bir durum. S\u00fcrpriz potansiyelinin daha \u00e7ok BoE\u2019de oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da g\u00fcvercin yeniden fiyatlama s\u00fcrecinde sterlinin daha fazla zay\u0131flama alan\u0131 olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sterlin cephesinde kritik sinyal: BoE \u00fcyeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ama \u015fahin tarafa yak\u0131n; Taylor g\u00fcvercin kal\u0131yor. Enflasyon d\u00fc\u015ferken \u00fccretler yap\u0131\u015fkan. ING, yeniden fiyatlamayla EUR\/GBP\u2019nin 0,8700 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31244","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31244"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31244\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}