{"id":31230,"date":"2026-03-26T12:05:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T12:05:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/danske-orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-ve-enerji-fiyatlarindaki-oynakligin-risk-olusturmasina-ragmen-norges-bankin-faizleri-4te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T12:05:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T12:05:52","slug":"danske-orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-ve-enerji-fiyatlarindaki-oynakligin-risk-olusturmasina-ragmen-norges-bankin-faizleri-4te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/danske-orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-ve-enerji-fiyatlarindaki-oynakligin-risk-olusturmasina-ragmen-norges-bankin-faizleri-4te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Danske, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n risk olu\u015fturmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n faizleri %4\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Danske Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Ekibi, piyasa beklentileriyle uyumlu \u015fekilde Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n (Norve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131) bir sonraki toplant\u0131da politika faizini %4\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 belirsizlik ve dalgal\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 risklere dayan\u0131yor.\n\nBeklenen y\u00f6nlendirme (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecek faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na dair mesajlar\u0131), enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki hareket ve bunun enflasyona etkisi netle\u015fene kadar politika faizinin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n, enflasyon y\u00fcksek kal\u0131r ya da y\u00fckselirse faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu belirtmesi bekleniyor.\n\nPara Politikas\u0131 Raporu\u2019ndaki (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve ekonomi projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren rapor) beklenen faiz patikas\u0131 (faizin izleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 rota), y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda politika faizinin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Sonras\u0131nda ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda temkinli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nYukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir risk de vurgulan\u0131yor: Faiz patikas\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na bir miktar yer verebilir. Bu, k\u00fcresel faiz beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olur.\n\n\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,5 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek seyrederken ve Brent petrol (Kuzey Denizi referans ham petrol fiyat\u0131) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi ihtimali zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu da, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin (faiz gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlanan finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesinde belirgin bir gev\u015femeyi fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n pahal\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Faiz swap e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131nda (swap: de\u011fi\u015fken faize kar\u015f\u0131 sabit faiz \u00f6demesinin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme; e\u011frinin \u201ck\u0131sa ucu\u201d yak\u0131n vadeleri ifade eder) istikrar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.\n\nNorve\u00e7 kronu da (NOK) merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n tercih edece\u011finden daha zay\u0131f kalmaya devam etti; bu durum, faiz indirimi karar\u0131yla kurun daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve ithal enflasyonun (kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131) y\u00fckselmesi riskini art\u0131rarak s\u00fcreci zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu i\u00e7 bask\u0131, k\u00fcresel tarafta hem Fed hem de ECB\u2019nin \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d mesaj\u0131 vermesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yaln\u0131zca faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla NOK zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131rken temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekir.\n\n\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha ihtiyatl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m, k\u0131sa vadeli Norve\u00e7 faizlerinde y\u00fcksek seviyelerin ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmamas\u0131) s\u00fcrmesine g\u00f6re konumlanmak olabilir. Yak\u0131n vadeli faiz indirimine y\u00f6nelik beklentiyle yaz\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak (opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) avantaj sa\u011flayabilir. Piyasan\u0131n, Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n politika faizini yaz boyunca %4,5\u2019te tutma riskini yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.\n

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Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrprize haz\u0131r olun: Danske, Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n faizi %4\u2019te sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, petrol ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonla indirimin zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. NOK bask\u0131s\u0131 ve \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz\u201d mesaj\u0131 art\u0131\u015f riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31230","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31230"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31230\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}