{"id":31226,"date":"2026-03-26T11:08:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T11:08:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/jeopolitik-gerilimler-ve-fede-iliskin-beklentiler-abd-dolarini-guclu-tutarken-avustralya-dolari-dusuk-seviyelere-yakin-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T11:08:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T11:08:58","slug":"jeopolitik-gerilimler-ve-fede-iliskin-beklentiler-abd-dolarini-guclu-tutarken-avustralya-dolari-dusuk-seviyelere-yakin-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/jeopolitik-gerilimler-ve-fede-iliskin-beklentiler-abd-dolarini-guclu-tutarken-avustralya-dolari-dusuk-seviyelere-yakin-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Jeopolitik gerilimler ve Fed\u2019e ili\u015fkin beklentiler ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutarken Avustralya dolar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD paritesi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve Avrupa sabah saatlerinde 0,6900 seviyelerinin ortas\u0131nda seyretti. Parite, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve \u015eubat ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan noktan\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.\n\nABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131f kald\u0131. \u0130ran, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme iddialar\u0131n\u0131 reddetti; anla\u015fma ihtimali olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve ABD\u2019nin 15 maddelik ate\u015fkes teklifini daha geni\u015f talepler \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerek geri \u00e7evirdi.\n\nABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgeye ilave asker g\u00f6ndermesi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklerken AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.\n\n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131 (petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n aksamas\u0131) WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc (ABD tipi referans ham petrol) yeniden 91,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131; bu da merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) dahil, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve likiditeyi azaltma) uygulayabilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.\n\nABD Hazine tahvili getirileri (tahvil faizi) y\u00fckseldi. Bu, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na ek destek verirken, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Christopher Kent\u2019in \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimli) a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n AUD\u2019ye sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Kent, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (krediye eri\u015fimi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p maliyetleri art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131), enflasyon sarmal\u0131 (fiyat ve \u00fccretlerin birbirini yukar\u0131 itmesi) riskini y\u00fckseltti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; politikan\u0131n enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlarken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve istikrarl\u0131 enflasyon ile tam istihdam hedefini korumas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.\n\n\u00c7in Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, askeri eylemlerin sona erdirilmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131 ve gerilimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Raporda 26 Mart 10:27 GMT\u2019de d\u00fczeltme yap\u0131larak haftal\u0131k en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyenin Pazartesi oldu\u011fu not edildi.\n\nAUD\/USD paritesinin 0,6600 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda tutunmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu tablo tan\u0131d\u0131k. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Mart 2025\u2019te paritenin ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi nedeniyle benzer bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn ise G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nde yeniden artan tansiyon, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) ortam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l ana unsur, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilim artarken ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte talep g\u00f6ren para) rol\u00fcyd\u00fc. Benzer dinami\u011fin tekrar etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler (opsiyon, vadeli kontrat gibi) yapanlar\u0131n, g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6neli\u015fin b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u201cgreenback\u201di (ABD dolar\u0131) destekleyece\u011fini dikkate almas\u0131 gerekir. Bu da AUD\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in put opsiyonu (fiyattaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak veya vadeli kontrat satmak (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f pozisyonu) gibi stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.\n\n2025\u2019te WTI petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn 91 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, enflasyon endi\u015felerini ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti. Brent petrol (k\u00fcresel referans petrol) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, son ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisinin yap\u0131\u015fkan bir \u015fekilde (kolay gerilemeyen) %3,4\u2019te kalmas\u0131 Fed\u2019in duru\u015funu yumu\u015fatmas\u0131 i\u00e7in fazla gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Bu, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar tezini destekleyerek AUD\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nBu enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn hem o d\u00f6nemde hem \u015fimdi do\u011frudan sonucu, ABD tahvil getirilerindeki hareket. 2025\u2019te oldu\u011fu gibi getiriler y\u00fckselirken, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi \u015fu anda yeniden %4,5\u2019e yakla\u015farak Avustralya devlet tahvillerine g\u00f6re getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 (iki \u00fclke tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu getiri fark\u0131, sermayenin ABD\u2019ye y\u00f6nelmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek Avustralya dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir olumsuz etken olu\u015fturuyor.\n\n2025\u2019te RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte a\u011f\u0131r basan fakt\u00f6rler nedeniyle ikinci planda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn RBA politika faizini (cash rate, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) %4,35\u2019te tutsa da, Fed\u2019in daha y\u00fcksek enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi ortamda RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7izgisi daha az agresif alg\u0131lan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle AUD\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinin sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 muhtemel; bu da k\u0131sa pozisyon i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasada riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve 91$ \u00fczeri petrol, enflasyon\/Fed \u015fahinli\u011fiyle dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Tahvil getirileri y\u00fckselirken AUD\/USD 0,6900\u2019de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; sat\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31226"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31226\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}