{"id":31221,"date":"2026-03-26T10:08:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T10:08:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobanktan-marey-ve-ji-iran-kaynakli-petrol-artislari-abdde-enflasyon-baskilarini-artiracak-ve-uzatacak\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T10:08:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T10:08:46","slug":"rabobanktan-marey-ve-ji-iran-kaynakli-petrol-artislari-abdde-enflasyon-baskilarini-artiracak-ve-uzatacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobanktan-marey-ve-ji-iran-kaynakli-petrol-artislari-abdde-enflasyon-baskilarini-artiracak-ve-uzatacak\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank\u2019tan Marey ve Ji: \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 petrol art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ABD\u2019de enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak ve uzatacak"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank analistleri Philip Marey ve Kan Ji, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ABD enflasyonunu y\u00fckseltebilece\u011fini ve uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Bunu, fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flatan \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (y\u00fcksek enflasyon + zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) t\u00fcr\u00fcnde bir \u201carz \u015foku\u201d (\u00fcretim\/tedarik taraf\u0131nda ani bozulma) olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.\n\nABD T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) martta yeniden y\u00fckselmesini ve nisanda %3,3 ile zirve yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar. Daha sonra enflasyonun yava\u015f gerileyece\u011fini, 2028\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda %2,5\u2019e inece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.\n\nABD\u2019nin net petrol ve do\u011fal gaz ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011funu, ancak yine de k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyorlar. Yurt i\u00e7i akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel seviyeleri yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.\n\nBaz senaryolar\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n nisan\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bitmesinin ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) kademeli yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. G\u00fcncellenen enerji fiyat\u0131 tahminlerine g\u00f6re, enflasyonun 2026\u2019da ortalama %2,9 ve 2027\u2019de %2,8 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesapl\u0131yorlar.\n\nDaha \u00f6nceki senaryo \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 daha da y\u00fckselirse enflasyonun daha fazla artabilece\u011fini ve GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) daha sert d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ekliyorlar.\n\n\u0130ran\u2019daki son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6nemli bir arz \u015foku yaratt\u0131 ve bunun fiyatlar\u0131 bir s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. WTI ham petrol (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) hemen tepki verdi; may\u0131s vadeli kontratlar (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu, ocakta g\u00f6r\u00fclen 80 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden keskin bir art\u0131\u015f. Enerji maliyetlerindeki bu s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n, yakla\u015fan enflasyon verilerine do\u011frudan yans\u0131mas\u0131 bekleniyor.\n\nBunun ABD enflasyonunu mart verileriyle birlikte yeniden yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u015eubat 2026 verisi, y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla zaten olumsuz bir tablo ortaya koymu\u015ftu; petrol \u015fokunun tam etkisi gelmeden \u00f6nce bile fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu. \u015eimdi enflasyonun nisanda %3,3 ile zirve yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz.\n\nBu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor ve yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 da bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor: Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ay \u00f6nce %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken bug\u00fcn %20\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na duyarl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnleri de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2026 sonu vadeli SOFR vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (SOFR: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 repo faizi; faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) k\u0131sa pozisyon (sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) almak.\n\nB\u00f6yle bir stagflasyon \u015foku belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131r ve bu da oynakl\u0131kta (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckseli\u015f olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. VIX endeksi (S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d, beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) son haftalarda 10\u2019lu seviyelerden 22\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) alarak piyasadaki sars\u0131nt\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 veya dalgalanmadan yararlanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n2026\u2019da ortalama enflasyonun %2,9 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmini, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n nisanda yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00fcy\u00fcr ya da uzarsa enerji fiyatlar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha da y\u00fckselebilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m spread\u2019i (call spread: maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonu) ile yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131p risklerini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rabilir.\n\nGeride b\u0131rak\u0131lan d\u00f6neme bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2025\u2019te on y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki tedarik zinciri aksakl\u0131klar\u0131ndan sonra enflasyonun ne kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu deneyim ve 1970\u2019lerdeki petrol \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel \u00f6rne\u011fi, y\u00fcksek enflasyon d\u00f6neminin bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011finden daha kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu da faizlere duyarl\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131n (faiz y\u00fckselince de\u011fer kaybetmeye yatk\u0131n ara\u00e7lar) bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol \u015foku ABD\u2019de stagflasyon riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor: Rabobank, \u0130ran gerilimiyle T\u00dcFE\u2019nin nisan %3,3\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131p uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fini, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi ihtimalinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31221\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}