{"id":31202,"date":"2026-03-26T07:03:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T07:03:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-ve-mudahale-endiseleri-surerken-usd-jpy-15950-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor-yil-ici-dip-seviyelere-yakin\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T07:03:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T07:03:37","slug":"orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-ve-mudahale-endiseleri-surerken-usd-jpy-15950-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor-yil-ici-dip-seviyelere-yakin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogudaki-gerilimler-ve-mudahale-endiseleri-surerken-usd-jpy-15950-civarinda-yatay-seyrediyor-yil-ici-dip-seviyelere-yakin\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler ve m\u00fcdahale endi\u015feleri s\u00fcrerken, USD\/JPY 159,50 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor; y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip seviyelere yak\u0131n"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda 159,00 seviyesinin ortalar\u0131 \u00e7evresinde dar bir bantta hareket etti. Parite, bu ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n kald\u0131.\n\nYen zay\u0131f seyretti. Sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi (ithalat ve ihracat fark\u0131) ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyonu (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) da y\u00fckseltebilir. Bu durum, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirme (\u00e7ok gev\u015fek politikalardan kademeli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) planlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.\n\n

Orta Do\u011fu \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Risk \u0130\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 Bask\u0131l\u0131yor<\/h3>\n\u0130ran d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, Tahran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik ABD \u00f6nerisini de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini, ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geni\u015fleyen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 azaltmay\u0131 hedefleyen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler planlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. B\u00f6lgeye ek ABD asker sevkiyat\u0131 haberleri, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen gerilimin t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131.\n\nABD\u2019de daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya y\u00fcksek faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre korunmas\u0131) beklentileri dolar\u0131 ve pariteyi desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ek faiz indirim ihtimalini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlamad\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik beklentiler y\u00fckseldi.\n\nS\u00fcren jeopolitik belirsizlik de dolara talebi destekledi. Ancak olas\u0131 piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi (yetkililerin kur \u00fczerindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketi durdurmak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan i\u015flem yapmas\u0131) endi\u015fesi, yende ek sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenledi.\n\nTemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm USD\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil fiyat\u0131 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, sadece bir \u00e7eyrekte %35\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu durum, \u015eubat 2026 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan son d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 2,1 trilyon yenlik a\u00e7\u0131kla da do\u011fruland\u0131; a\u00e7\u0131kta en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay y\u00fcksek enerji ithalat maliyetlerinden kaynakland\u0131.\n\n

Para Politikas\u0131 Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Dolar\u0131 Destekliyor<\/h3>\nKar\u015f\u0131 tarafta ABD dolar\u0131, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n duran) beklentilerinden destek al\u0131yor. Piyasa bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi umutlar\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse tamamen terk etti. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131ndan olas\u0131 Fed faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019ya kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu ile hareket alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 BoJ aras\u0131ndaki bu geni\u015f fark dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor.\n\nBununla birlikte, pariteyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ana risk Japon yetkililerin do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale tehdidi. 2022 sonlar\u0131nda kur ilk kez 151 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sert ad\u0131mlar\u0131 paritede keskin ve ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Parite 160,00\u2019e yak\u0131n seyrederken, s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar (yetkililerin kurla ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131) her an fiili m\u00fcdahaleye (piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir.\n\nBu tabloda, do\u011frudan \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131mak ani bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, opsiyon kullanmak olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD al\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan dolar alma hakk\u0131) ya da JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan yen satma hakk\u0131) tercih edilebilir. B\u00f6ylece yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 paritede ek y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanabilir; m\u00fcdahale gelirse azami zarar, \u00f6denen primle (opsiyonu sat\u0131n alma maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dikkat: USD\/JPY 159 civar\u0131nda zirveye yak\u0131n. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve 110$ \u00fczeri petrol yen\u2019i zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Fed \u015fahin, BoJ s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k; yukar\u0131 potansiyel var. Ancak 160\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken Japon m\u00fcdahalesi riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31202","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31202"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31202\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}