{"id":31192,"date":"2026-03-26T05:05:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T05:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dbs-ekonomistleri-byron-lam-ve-daisy-sharma-cinin-ilk-ceyrek-gsyh-buyumesinin-45ten-47ye-yukselecegini-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T05:05:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T05:05:00","slug":"dbs-ekonomistleri-byron-lam-ve-daisy-sharma-cinin-ilk-ceyrek-gsyh-buyumesinin-45ten-47ye-yukselecegini-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dbs-ekonomistleri-byron-lam-ve-daisy-sharma-cinin-ilk-ceyrek-gsyh-buyumesinin-45ten-47ye-yukselecegini-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS ekonomistleri Byron Lam ve Daisy Sharma, \u00c7in\u2019in ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %4,5\u2019ten %4,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"DBS Group Research ekonomistleri Byron Lam ve Daisy Sharma\u2019n\u0131n haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00c7in GSYH \u201canl\u0131k tahmini\u201d (mevcut \u00e7eyre\u011fe ait a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler ve tahminlere dayanarak yap\u0131lan g\u00fcncel b\u00fcy\u00fcme hesab\u0131), 2026 1. \u00e7eyrekte (1\u00c7) reel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2025 4. \u00e7eyrekteki (4\u00c7) %4,5\u2019ten %4,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nOcak-\u015eubat verileri, 2026\u2019ya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ba\u015flang\u0131ca i\u015faret ediyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme, sanayi \u00fcretimindeki canl\u0131l\u0131k ve \u00c7in mallar\u0131na yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 talebiyle destekleniyor. T\u00fcketim genel olarak yatay seyrederken, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve kredi zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>China Growth And Markets<\/h3>\nY\u0131ll\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2026\u2019da %4,5\u2019e gerilemesi bekleniyor (2025: %5,0). Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor. Brent petrol\u00fcn y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda ortalama 100 ABD dolar\u0131 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bunun b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi 0,5 puan azaltabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.\n\nBu senaryo, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk iki ay\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretiminin %7,0 artmas\u0131 ve ihracat\u0131n %7,1 y\u00fckselmesiyle destekleniyor. Caixin \u0130malat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri geni\u015fleme, alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) 50,9 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lgesinde kald\u0131.\n\n<h3>Risks And Hedging Ideas<\/h3>\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m ve kredideki kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 Ocak-\u015eubat d\u00f6neminde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %9,0 daha darald\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, riskten korunma (hedge; olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flemler) amac\u0131yla emlak geli\u015ftirici ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan hak) gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.\n\nDaha ileriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u0131l geneli b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %4,5\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu nedenle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 1. \u00e7eyrek verilerine dayal\u0131 olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin ivmesi azalabilir. Resmi veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi Hang Seng Endeksi opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cbeklenen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor. Bu nedenle \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte al\u0131n\u0131r; fiyat\u0131n sert y\u00fckselmesi ya da d\u00fc\u015fmesinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler) gibi oynakl\u0131k odakl\u0131 stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.\n\n\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli d\u0131\u015f risk petrol fiyatlar\u0131. Brent\u2019in 100 dolar ortalamaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden 0,5 puan g\u00f6t\u00fcrebilir. Bu durum \u00c7in yuan\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir ve ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 sekt\u00f6rleri olumsuz etkileyebilir. Bu nedenle enerji piyasalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenebilir ve USD\/CNH gibi d\u00f6viz paritelerinde opsiyonlarla (kur riskine kar\u015f\u0131 hak sat\u0131n alma) korunma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7in\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz sinyal: DBS, 2026 1\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi %4,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti. Sanayi ve ihracat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; t\u00fcketim yatay. Yat\u0131r\u0131m-kredi zay\u0131f, emlak daral\u0131yor. Brent 100$ b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi 0,5 puan t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir. Hedging: ETF put, straddle, USD\/CNH opsiyon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31192\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}