{"id":31189,"date":"2026-03-26T05:01:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T05:01:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bnyden-geoff-yu-iran-baglantili-enerji-soklari-apac-odemeleri-uzerinde-baski-yaratiyor-myr-thb-aud-ve-php-akislarini-yonlendiriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T05:01:54","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T05:01:54","slug":"bnyden-geoff-yu-iran-baglantili-enerji-soklari-apac-odemeleri-uzerinde-baski-yaratiyor-myr-thb-aud-ve-php-akislarini-yonlendiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bnyden-geoff-yu-iran-baglantili-enerji-soklari-apac-odemeleri-uzerinde-baski-yaratiyor-myr-thb-aud-ve-php-akislarini-yonlendiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019den Geoff Yu: \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji \u015foklar\u0131 APAC \u00f6demeleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor, MYR, THB, AUD ve PHP ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiriyor"},"content":{"rendered":"\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftas\u0131nda, APAC (Asya-Pasifik) para birimlerindeki hareketler; enerji ve ilgili yan \u00fcr\u00fcnlere ba\u011fl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f denge (\u00f6demeler dengesi: \u00fclkenin d\u00f6viz gelir-gider dengesi) bask\u0131s\u0131yla \u015fekilleniyor. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan para birimleri MYR (Malezya ringgiti), THB (Tayland baht\u0131), AUD (Avustralya dolar\u0131) ve PHP (Filipin pesosu).\n\nK\u00f6rfez\u2019in helyum ve \u00fcre gibi ara girdilerdeki (\u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan temel malzeme) tedarik rol\u00fc, APAC ekonomisinin baz\u0131 alanlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor. B\u00f6lgesel d\u0131\u015f denge bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ana kayna\u011f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 mineral yak\u0131tlar (petrol ve benzeri), ayr\u0131ca daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u201cticaret hadleri\u201d (ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithalat fiyatlar\u0131na oran\u0131) bozulmas\u0131n\u0131n da olas\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.\n\n<h3>Kuzey Asya Dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\nKuzey Asya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek ihracat ekonomilerinin (ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00fclkeler) daha y\u00fcksek rezerv yeterlili\u011fi (merkez bankas\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin ithalat\/bor\u00e7 gibi kalemleri kar\u015f\u0131lama g\u00fcc\u00fc) ve daha y\u00fcksek ihtiyati tasarruflar (belirsizlik i\u00e7in birikim) sayesinde daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc mali kapasite (kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esi g\u00fcc\u00fc; Japonya hari\u00e7) de tampon olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; \u015fu a\u015famada d\u00f6viz (FX) veya sabit getirili varl\u0131klardan (tahvil gibi) \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir risk olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor.\n\nAPAC\u2019in di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerinde, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri yak\u0131t karnelemesi (tahsis\/limit uygulamas\u0131) gibi \u00f6nlemlere y\u00f6neldi. Filipinler\u2019de Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Marcos, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc jet yak\u0131t\u0131 eksikli\u011fi nedeniyle u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131n\u0131n ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.\n\nAvustralya, do\u011fal gazda net ihracat\u00e7\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen rafine petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde (i\u015flenmi\u015f yak\u0131t) arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yor. Son bir ayda net sat\u0131\u015flar, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f\u201d (piyasada \u00e7ok fazla pozisyon birikmi\u015f) para birimleriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; MYR, THB ve AUD ise \u201caz ta\u015f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131.\n\nBu tabloyu ge\u00e7en y\u0131l mart ay\u0131nda da g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma Asya d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Temel sorun, enerji yan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinden kaynaklanan ticaret hadleri \u015fokuydu; bu \u015fok, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya ve Avustralya ekonomilerini Kuzey Asya\u2019ya k\u0131yasla daha sert vurmu\u015ftu. 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, mevcut i\u015flem stratejilerini etkilemeye devam ediyor.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015flem Kurgusuna Etkiler<\/h3>\nTayland baht\u0131 ve Filipin pesosu gibi enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n para birimleri, 2025\u2019in ikinci ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131. 2025 4. \u00e7eyrek verileri, Filipinler\u2019in cari a\u00e7\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131n (cari denge a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131\/GSYH) %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve bunun 10 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, ithalat maliyetlerinden gelen kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 yans\u0131tarak beklenen d\u0131\u015f denge s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131.\n\nBu kal\u0131c\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fma, Kuzey Asya\u2019n\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yararlanan i\u015flemleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Opsiyonlarla (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7) Filipin pesosunda k\u0131sa pozisyonu Tayvan dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda (TWD\/PHP) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 de\u011ferli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yap\u0131, b\u00f6lgesel temay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken daha geni\u015f ABD dolar\u0131 hareketlerine maruziyeti azalt\u0131r.\n\n2022 enerji krizi gibi \u00f6rneklerde, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkelerde kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk fiyat \u015fokundan sonra da s\u00fcrebiliyor. Bu durumda merkez bankalar\u0131, para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmak ile yava\u015flayan ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak aras\u0131nda se\u00e7im yapmak zorunda kal\u0131r. Tayland\u2019da \u015eubat 2026 enflasyonunun beklentinin alt\u0131nda %1,8 gelmesi, merkez bankas\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceleme alan\u0131 tan\u0131yor; bu da baht \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (vadeli i\u015flem\/opsiyon gibi finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle i\u015flem yapanlar) bu, MYR ve THB\u2019de dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu alman\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 uygulanabilir bir koruma (hedge: riski azaltma) y\u00f6ntemi oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu paritelerde \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; piyasa enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck riski h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatl\u0131yor. Mevcut belirsizlik nedeniyle bu maliyetin makul oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Avustralya dolar\u0131, 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sunuyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l rafine yak\u0131t s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir negatif etkendi; ancak Ocak 2026 ticaret verileri, i\u015flenmi\u015f \u00fcr\u00fcn ihracat\u0131nda belirgin bir iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret etti. Bu, ilk darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n gev\u015fedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; AUD\u2019de zay\u0131f a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kta kalmak (underweight: portf\u00f6yde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck pay) art\u0131k ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha az net bir i\u015flem olabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 4. haftada APAC kurlar\u0131n\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f denge bask\u0131s\u0131yla ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor: Kuzey Asya diren\u00e7li, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya k\u0131r\u0131lgan. MYR-THB-PHP zay\u0131f; TWD\/PHP short ve put hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. AUD g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31189","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31189"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31189\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31189"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31189"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31189"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}