{"id":31184,"date":"2026-03-26T02:04:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T02:04:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-20-gunluk-smadan-toparlanip-yukseldikten-sonra-iki-seans-ust-uste-yukseldi-ancak-15965-zirvesinin-altinda-duraksiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T02:04:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T02:04:09","slug":"usd-jpy-20-gunluk-smadan-toparlanip-yukseldikten-sonra-iki-seans-ust-uste-yukseldi-ancak-15965-zirvesinin-altinda-duraksiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-20-gunluk-smadan-toparlanip-yukseldikten-sonra-iki-seans-ust-uste-yukseldi-ancak-15965-zirvesinin-altinda-duraksiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019dan toparlan\u0131p y\u00fckseldikten sonra iki seans \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseldi, ancak 159,65 zirvesinin alt\u0131nda duraks\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 158,24 civar\u0131ndaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamadan (SMA: belirli g\u00fcnlerin ortalama fiyat\u0131n\u0131 alarak e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) tepki ald\u0131ktan sonra \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseldi. Parite 159,27 seviyesinde, %0,36 art\u0131da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ancak Pazartesi g\u00f6r\u00fclen 159,65 haftal\u0131k zirvenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.\n\nTeknik g\u00f6stergeler, k\u0131sa vadede haftal\u0131k zirvelerin yeniden test edilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterirken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi (yenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak i\u00e7in resmi al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) 160,00\u2019e do\u011fru hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\n\nParite gerilerse, ilk destek 158,24\u2019teki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA. Bunun alt\u0131na sarkma, 19 Mart g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dibini 157,51\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; bir sonraki destek 156,56 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (daha uzun vadeli e\u011filim \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) olur.\n\nDaha zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde odak 156,26\u2019daki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya kayar. Bunun alt\u0131ndaki bir sonraki seviye 156,00.\n\nUSD\/JPY\u2019nin 159,65 diren\u00e7 seviyesini zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu yeni bir denemeyi olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak piyasada as\u0131l belirleyici unsur, 160,00 e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken Japon yetkililerin m\u00fcdahale riskinin artmas\u0131. Bu durum, teknik e\u011filim ile resmi m\u00fcdahale riskinin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geldi\u011fi bir denge yarat\u0131yor.\n\nYukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 son verilerle a\u00e7\u0131klanabilir. ABD\u2019de \u015fubat ay\u0131 \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen enflasyon) %2,9 ile beklenenden y\u00fcksek geldi. Bu, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz indirimini geciktirebilir ve dolar\u0131 destekler. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) ise politikas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sabit tutarken, yenin h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) pariteyi yukar\u0131 itiyor.\n\n2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda parite 160,00\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert m\u00fcdahaleleri de unutmamak gerekir. En az iki kez kur saatler i\u00e7inde birka\u00e7 yen gerileyerek, riski korunmam\u0131\u015f (hedge edilmemi\u015f: olumsuz hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131nmam\u0131\u015f) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemler) h\u0131zla zarara soktu. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, Japon yetkililerin gerekti\u011finde h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket edebildi\u011fini ve 160,00 yeniden a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa benzer oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nBu ortamda USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseldi; JYVIX endeksi 11,5 civar\u0131nda. Bu, \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketin y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler) stratejisinin daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu pozisyon, fiyat\u0131n iki y\u00f6nden birinde sert hareket etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar; hem yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma hem de m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu de\u011ferlendirir.\n\nY\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in \u201cbull call spread\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi) 160,00\u2019a hareketi hedeflerken, m\u00fcdahale olursa riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Tersine, do\u011frudan put almak, resmi ad\u0131m\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanman\u0131n en net yoludur; ge\u00e7mi\u015f m\u00fcdahalelerdeki h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler nedeniyle getiri potansiyeli artabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/JPY 159,27\u2019de; 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019dan tepkiyle 159,65 direncini zorluyor. RSI yukar\u0131y\u0131 desteklerken 160,00\u2019da Japon m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; opsiyonlarda oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31184","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31184"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31184\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31184"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31184"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31184"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}