{"id":31178,"date":"2026-03-26T01:02:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T01:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abdnin-bes-yillik-tahvil-ihalesinde-getiri-398e-yukseldi-onceki-3615-seviyesinden-artti\/"},"modified":"2026-03-26T01:02:00","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T01:02:00","slug":"abdnin-bes-yillik-tahvil-ihalesinde-getiri-398e-yukseldi-onceki-3615-seviyesinden-artti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abdnin-bes-yillik-tahvil-ihalesinde-getiri-398e-yukseldi-onceki-3615-seviyesinden-artti\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019nin be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesinde getiri %3,98\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6nceki %3,615 seviyesinden artt\u0131."},"content":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019nin 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil (5-year note) ihalesinde getiri (yield) \u00f6nceki ihaledeki %3,615 seviyesinden %3,98\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.\n\nBu de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00f6nceki sonuca g\u00f6re 0,365 puan art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor.\n\n<h3>Fed Politikas\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\n5 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisindeki bu sert y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) bir sinyal olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Piyasa, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131na fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu tablo, faiz indirimlerinin ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re daha ge\u00e7 gelebilece\u011fi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin faiz tahminlerinin yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesini gerektiriyor.\n\nHareket, \u015eubat 2026 enflasyon verileriyle de uyumlu. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (core CPI: g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,3\u2019te kalmaya devam ederek Fed\u2019in hedefledi\u011fi rahat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretti. 2022-2023\u2019teki sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6nemine benzer \u015fekilde piyasa, Eyl\u00fcl 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeydi. Bu nedenle, ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (Treasury futures: tahvil fiyat\u0131na dayal\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) 5 y\u0131l (\/ZF) ve 10 y\u0131l (\/ZN) kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan i\u015flem) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nHisse senetleri taraf\u0131nda, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetine hassas b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler i\u00e7in risk art\u0131yor. \u0130skonto oran\u0131 (discount rate: gelecekteki nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011fere indirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan faiz) y\u00fckseldi\u011finde de\u011ferlemeler h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015febiliyor. Bu nedenle, Nasdaq 100\u2019\u00fc izleyen ETF\u2019te (QQQ) koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (protective put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) almak veya S&#038;P 500\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i (bearish call spread: s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi) kurmak, portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilecek y\u00f6ntemler.\n\nGetiri beklentilerindeki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in de destekleyici olabilir. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (dovish: faiz indirimi veya gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na yak\u0131n) bir dil kullan\u0131rken, faiz fark\u0131 (interest rate differential: \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 faiz makas\u0131) dolar lehine a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu durum, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) bu ay %2 y\u00fckselterek 106\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. USD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (\/DX) di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerinden olu\u015fan sepete kar\u015f\u0131 uzun pozisyon (long: y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynayan i\u015flem) art\u0131rma se\u00e7ene\u011fi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nTahvil piyasas\u0131nda \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) da y\u00fckseliyor. MOVE endeksi (tahvil piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekten beri ilk kez 110\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede sert fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 (whipsaw: h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftiren dalga) art\u0131rabilir. Bu ortamda, y\u00f6n tahmininden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in TLT gibi tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu: b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklenirken y\u00f6n belirsizken kullan\u0131lan strateji) gibi opsiyon stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\n<h3>Portf\u00f6y Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesinde getiri %3,615\u2019ten %3,98\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken hisse de\u011ferlemeleri bask\u0131lanabilir; MOVE 110 \u00fcst\u00fc oynakl\u0131k alarm\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31178\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}