{"id":31168,"date":"2026-03-25T22:03:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T22:03:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-iran-kaynakli-petrol-fiyat-soku-fede-celiskili-sinyaller-veriyor-gelecekteki-faiz-kararlarini-zorlastiriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T22:03:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T22:03:58","slug":"td-securities-iran-kaynakli-petrol-fiyat-soku-fede-celiskili-sinyaller-veriyor-gelecekteki-faiz-kararlarini-zorlastiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-iran-kaynakli-petrol-fiyat-soku-fede-celiskili-sinyaller-veriyor-gelecekteki-faiz-kararlarini-zorlastiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities: \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 petrol fiyat \u015foku Fed\u2019e \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller veriyor, gelecekteki faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities stratejistlerine g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi petrol \u015foku (petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve sert art\u0131\u015f) Federal Rezerv\u2019e (Fed, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller veriyor. ABD ekonomisini \u201ckarma\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlayan ekip, 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda Fed\u2019in ikili hedefinin (enflasyonu kontrol etmek ve istihdam\u0131 desteklemek) h\u00e2l\u00e2 birbiriyle gerilim i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\n\nStratejistler, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Komite\u2019nin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tarafa kayabilece\u011fini (enflasyon riski nedeniyle daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f) ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 tutarak (krediye eri\u015fimin zorla\u015fmas\u0131, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) ekonomiyi frenlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Ko\u015fullar izin verirse, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimleri de bekliyorlar.\n\nFed yetkililerinin, uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentileri (hanehalk\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n gelecekteki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc) sabit kal\u0131rsa enerji \u015fokunu ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon \u00fczerindeki ikinci tur etkilerin (enerji maliyetlerinin dolayl\u0131 yoldan di\u011fer mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131na yay\u0131lmas\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini ekliyorlar.\n\nMevcut tabloyu 2022 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran stratejistler, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz ve bilan\u00e7o gibi ara\u00e7lar) ve maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131n (devlet harcamalar\u0131 ve vergiler) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, fazla tasarruf kaynakl\u0131 ertelenmi\u015f talebin (pandemi d\u00f6nemi birikmi\u015f nakdin harcamaya d\u00f6nmesi) bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerinin daha az bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu da vurguluyorlar.\n\nOrta Do\u011fu\u2019daki durumun de\u011fi\u015fkenli\u011fini korudu\u011funu ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere \u00e7evirebilecek birden fazla senaryo oldu\u011funu; bunun daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa da daha h\u0131zl\u0131 gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimi gibi) de yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini belirtiyorlar. Ayr\u0131ca diren\u00e7li bir ABD ekonomisinin (b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tamamen bozulmamas\u0131) Fed\u2019e bekleyip g\u00f6rme alan\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyorlar.\n\nFed, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine itmesiyle zor bir denklemle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; bu ciddi bir \u015fok yarat\u0131yor. Son fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019yi (CPI; t\u00fcketici enflasyonu, enerji ve g\u0131da d\u00e2hil) %4,1\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yarak harekete ge\u00e7me bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Ancak \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3,2 ile daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7), Fed\u2019in bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u201cge\u00e7ici\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcp beklemede kalabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.\n\nBu temkinli duru\u015f m\u00fcmk\u00fcn; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonominin temel dinamikleri \u00f6nceki y\u0131llara k\u0131yasla daha zay\u0131f. \u015eubat istihdam raporu beklentinin alt\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca 150 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu da merkez bankas\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri de\u011ferlendirip enerji fiyat \u015fokuna hemen tepki vermeden \u00f6nce bekleme alan\u0131 tan\u0131yor.\n\nBug\u00fcnden geriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ekonomi, 2022\u2019deki enflasyon d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re belirgin bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131 bir noktada. 2025\u2019e kadar s\u00fcren dezenflasyon (enflasyonun kademeli d\u00fc\u015fmesi) d\u00f6nemi, ekonomide o d\u00f6nem Fed\u2019i sert ad\u0131mlara iten a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nm\u0131\u015f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 t\u00fcketici talebi g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, Fed\u2019in mevcut petrol \u015fokuna a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki vermemesine esneklik sa\u011fl\u0131yor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Petrol \u015foku Fed\u2019i ikilemde b\u0131rakt\u0131: WTI 115 dolar\u0131 a\u015farken man\u015fet enflasyon %4,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. TD\u2019ye g\u00f6re Fed k\u0131sa vadede bekle-g\u00f6r, \u015fahinle\u015febilir; 2026\u2019da ko\u015fullara ba\u011fl\u0131 indirim g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31168","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31168"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31168\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31168"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31168"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31168"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}