{"id":31166,"date":"2026-03-25T22:02:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T22:02:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bbhden-elias-haddad-iyilesen-risk-istahi-dolari-destekliyor-iran-gorusmeleri-surerken-dxy-100un-altinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T22:02:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T22:02:30","slug":"bbhden-elias-haddad-iyilesen-risk-istahi-dolari-destekliyor-iran-gorusmeleri-surerken-dxy-100un-altinda-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bbhden-elias-haddad-iyilesen-risk-istahi-dolari-destekliyor-iran-gorusmeleri-surerken-dxy-100un-altinda-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"BBH\u2019den Elias Haddad: \u0130yile\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor; \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrerken DXY 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7eren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada olas\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. K\u00fcresel hisse senetleri ve tahviller y\u00fckseliyor, Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolara yak\u0131n, DXY (Dolar Endeksi: ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 100,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor.\n\n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, ABD\u2019nin tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck (gerilimi azaltma) politika de\u011fi\u015fimine verece\u011fi yan\u0131t, piyasa korkusunun zirve yap\u0131p yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen unsurlardan biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm netle\u015fene kadar, piyasalarda stres artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u201cfonlama talebi\u201d (pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in nakit\/dolar bulma ihtiyac\u0131) y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in ABD dolar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.\n\n

K\u0131sa Vadeli Dolar G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\nBBH (Brown Brothers Harriman) k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6ng\u00fcde dolar konusunda n\u00f6tr. DXY\u2019nin 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bunu da ABD ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki \u201cfaiz farklar\u0131na\u201d (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki makas) ba\u011fl\u0131yor.\n\nUzun vadede ise BBH dolarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini koruyor. Gerek\u00e7eler: ABD\u2019nin ticaret ve g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131na duyulan g\u00fcvenin azalmas\u0131, ABD\u2019nin \u201cmali g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 (b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini ve bor\u00e7 y\u00f6netimine g\u00fcven), ve Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u201csiyasalla\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (kararlar\u0131n\u0131n siyasi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n daha fazla etkisine a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi).\n\n2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda alevlenen \u0130ran geriliminin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131nda toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 98,50 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveni art\u0131yor. Bu, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn (ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nde gelen 500 \u015firketini izleyen hisse endeksi) bu \u00e7eyrekte yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 toparlanmas\u0131na da yans\u0131yor.\n\nSakinli\u011fe ra\u011fmen, finansal stres geri d\u00f6nerse k\u0131sa vadede risklerin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar taraf\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen piyasa \u015foklar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) olarak dolara ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f h\u0131zl\u0131 olabilir. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30-60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7in dolarda \u201cout-of-the-money call opsiyonlar\u0131\u201d (hen\u00fcz k\u00e2rl\u0131 olmayan; fiyat belirli seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa kazand\u0131ran al\u0131m opsiyonu) tutmak, ani bir gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge: riski dengeleme) olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.\n\n

Bant \u0130\u015flemi Stratejileri<\/h3>\nD\u00f6ng\u00fcsel olarak, DXY\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 96,00-100,00 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u015eubat ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) %2,8\u2019de inat\u00e7\u0131 seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan \u00f6nce sert faiz indirimlerine gitmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor; bu da \u201cfaiz farklar\u0131n\u0131\u201d b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sabit tutuyor. Bu ortamda \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan\u201d (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131) kazanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201ciron condor\u201d (fiyat\u0131n belirli bir bantta kalmas\u0131na oynayan, birden fazla opsiyonun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) gibi yap\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\nYap\u0131sal olarak (uzun vadeli temel dinamikler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan), ABD politikas\u0131na g\u00fcvenin azalmas\u0131 ve mali g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 nedeniyle dolarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Kongre B\u00fct\u00e7e Ofisi\u2019nin (CBO) ocak projeksiyonlar\u0131, borcun GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n (debt-to-GDP: toplam kamu borcunun ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne oran\u0131) on y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda %120\u2019yi a\u015fma yolunda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum uzun vadeli alg\u0131y\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Bir y\u0131ldan uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m ufku olanlar, \u201cuzun vadeli DXY put opsiyonlar\u0131\u201d (dolar endeksi d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran sat\u0131m opsiyonu) ile kademeli pozisyon olu\u015fturmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar \u0130ran krizinde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm umutlar\u0131yla rahatlad\u0131: hisse ve tahviller y\u00fckselirken Brent 100 dolara yak\u0131n, DXY 98,5\u2019te. K\u0131sa vadede 96-100 band\u0131, stresle dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir; uzun vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31166"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31166\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}