{"id":31163,"date":"2026-03-25T21:02:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T21:02:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abn-amro-ekonomistleri-ecb-yenilenen-enerji-soklarina-karsi-ve-enflasyonda-ikinci-tur-etkileri-onlemek-icin-daha-fazla-sikilasabilir\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T21:02:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T21:02:47","slug":"abn-amro-ekonomistleri-ecb-yenilenen-enerji-soklarina-karsi-ve-enflasyonda-ikinci-tur-etkileri-onlemek-icin-daha-fazla-sikilasabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abn-amro-ekonomistleri-ecb-yenilenen-enerji-soklarina-karsi-ve-enflasyonda-ikinci-tur-etkileri-onlemek-icin-daha-fazla-sikilasabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"ABN AMRO Ekonomistleri: ECB, Yenilenen Enerji \u015eoklar\u0131na Kar\u015f\u0131 ve Enflasyonda \u0130kinci Tur Etkileri \u00d6nlemek \u0130\u00e7in Daha Fazla S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"ABN AMRO ekonomistleri Bill Diviney ve Jan-Paul van de Kerke, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) yeniden ba\u015flayan enerji \u015fokuna, enflasyonun \u201cikinci tur\u201d etkilerini (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccret ve ba\u015fka fiyatlara yay\u0131lmas\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131yla (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) yan\u0131t vermesinin olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Ana senaryolar\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda ECB\u2019nin iki kez faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu beklenti, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %2\u2019lik hedefle uyumlu seviyelere d\u00f6nmesine dayan\u0131yor.\n\nEkonomistler, sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki (reel gelir) kayb\u0131n \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini, bu nedenle mali deste\u011fin (b\u00fct\u00e7eden yard\u0131m\/te\u015fvik) k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca kamu maliyesinin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (b\u00fct\u00e7e \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131), tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n tepkisine dair endi\u015feleri ve geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 deste\u011fin ikinci tur enflasyonu besleme riskini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6steriyor.\n\n<h3>\u00dc\u00e7 T Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131<\/h3>\nECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde, \u00f6nlemlerde \u201c\u00dc\u00e7 T\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nerdi: Ge\u00e7ici (Temporary), Hedefli (Targeted) ve Duruma \u00d6zel (Tailored). Ekonomistler bu y\u00f6nlendirmeyi, enflasyonu art\u0131rabilecek yayg\u0131n ve herkese a\u00e7\u0131k desteklerden ka\u00e7\u0131nma hedefiyle ili\u015fkilendiriyor.\n\nEkonomistlere g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek faizler, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle kaybedilen enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yerini tutamaz. Ancak faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, enflasyon beklentilerini (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminleri) kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken, \u00fccretlerin %2 hedefine yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.\n\nAvrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, temel arz sorununu \u00e7\u00f6zmeyecek olsa da, son enerji \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u015eubat 2026 \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon verisi %3,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, 2025 boyunca g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yava\u015flama e\u011filimini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tersine \u00e7evirdi. ECB\u2019nin ana kayg\u0131s\u0131, bu fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccret beklentilerine yerle\u015fmesi.\n\n2022\u2019deki enerji krizinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 mali destek paketlerinin aksine, bu kez daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yan\u0131t bekleniyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmetler b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi enflasyonu art\u0131rmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu da ekonomiyi dengelemede para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Faiz Piyasas\u0131na Etkiler<\/h3>\nFaiz piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u20acSTR (Euro k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oran\u0131) vadeli e\u011frisinin (piyasan\u0131n gelecekte bekledi\u011fi faiz patikas\u0131) ECB\u2019nin kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tam fiyatlamam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda en az iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmeli; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda (de\u011fi\u015fken faiz ile sabit faizin takas edildi\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) f\u0131rsatlar yaratabilir. De\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6deyip sabit faiz almak (faizlerin y\u00fckselmesinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen pozisyon) piyasa beklentileri g\u00fcncellenirken kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.\n\nBu \u015fahin duru\u015f (enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 tutum), Alman devlet tahvillerinin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekip getirileri (faiz) yukar\u0131 itebilir; \u00f6zellikle e\u011frinin k\u0131sa taraf\u0131nda (k\u0131sa vadeler). Alman 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi bu ay 20 baz puan (0,20 puan) artarak %2,95\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; yak\u0131nda %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ge\u00e7mesini bekliyoruz. Bobl veya Schatz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, bu harekete do\u011frudan pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.\n\nPolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere gitmesi) Euro\u2019ya, \u00f6zellikle ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destek verebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed\u2019in daha temkinli bir \u00e7izgide oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. EUR\/USD kuru 1,10 seviyesini test etti; birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nce 1,08 seviyesindeydi. Olas\u0131 ek g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeden yararlanmak i\u00e7in Euro \u00fczerinde call opsiyonu (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan al\u0131m opsiyonu) almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.\n\nBu hassas bir d\u00f6nem; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ECB\u2019nin rahat etti\u011fi seviyelere yeni d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2024\u2019te yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5 ile zirve yapan toplu s\u00f6zle\u015fmeli \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde yakla\u015f\u0131k %3\u2019e geriledi. Merkez bankas\u0131, bu yeni enerji \u015fokunun \u00fccretlerde ikinci tur enflasyonist talepleri tetiklemesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in erken ad\u0131m at\u0131yor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yeni enerji \u015foku ECB\u2019yi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya itiyor: ABN AMRO iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Mali destek \u201c\u00dc\u00e7 T\u201d ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. Tahvil getirileri y\u00fckselir, euro g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, swap\/opsiyon f\u0131rsat\u0131 do\u011far.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31163","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31163"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31163\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31163"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31163"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31163"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}