{"id":31161,"date":"2026-03-25T21:01:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T21:01:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securitiesten-ryan-mckay-hurmuz-kisitlamalari-surerken-ve-korfezdeki-kesintiler-gunluk-10-milyon-varili-asarken-petrol-piyasasi-sikilasiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T21:01:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T21:01:23","slug":"td-securitiesten-ryan-mckay-hurmuz-kisitlamalari-surerken-ve-korfezdeki-kesintiler-gunluk-10-milyon-varili-asarken-petrol-piyasasi-sikilasiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securitiesten-ryan-mckay-hurmuz-kisitlamalari-surerken-ve-korfezdeki-kesintiler-gunluk-10-milyon-varili-asarken-petrol-piyasasi-sikilasiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities\u2019ten Ryan McKay: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki kesintiler g\u00fcnl\u00fck 10 milyon varili a\u015farken petrol piyasas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k 18 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn alt\u0131na inmi\u015f durumda. Toplam ak\u0131\u015flar sava\u015f \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %98 azald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 ak\u0131\u015flar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; baz\u0131 petrol tankerleri \u00f6deme yap\u0131larak ve koordinasyon sa\u011flanarak ge\u00e7i\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.\n\nK\u00f6rfez \u00fcreticilerinin \u00fcretim kesintileri 10 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve daha da artabilir. Ay sonuna kadar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da en az 200 milyon varil petrol \u00fcretilmemi\u015f olabilir; haftal\u0131k kay\u0131p en az 70 milyon varil d\u00fczeyinde.\n\n

Arz Kesintisi ve Ak\u0131\u015f K\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131<\/h3>\nOrta Do\u011fu d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u201cy\u00fczer depolama\u201d (petrol\u00fcn gemilerde bekletilerek depolanmas\u0131) \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana %35\u2019e kadar, yani 33 milyon varil azald\u0131. Asya\u2019da be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerindeki t\u00fcm ek y\u00fczer stoklar t\u00fckendi. Ak\u0131\u015flar yeniden ba\u015flamazsa, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha fazla \u201ckara depolar\u0131na\u201d (liman ve tesis tanklar\u0131ndaki stoklara) y\u00fck binmesi bekleniyor.\n\nIEA\u2019nin (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131) stratejik petrol rezervi (devletlerin acil durum i\u00e7in tuttu\u011fu stok) piyasaya verme h\u0131z\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn olarak tahmin ediliyor. ABD\u2019nin ilk SPR (Stratejik Petrol Rezervi) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\/tahsisi kapsam\u0131nda 86 milyon varilin 45,2 milyon varili ayr\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak \u201ctakas yap\u0131s\u0131\u201d (petrol\u00fcn belirli vadeler\/ko\u015fullar \u00fczerinden teslim edilmesine dayal\u0131 model) ile \u201cvadeli fiyat e\u011frisi\u201d (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki fiyatlar\u0131n dizilimi) ve \u201cbaz riski\u201d (farkl\u0131 kalite\/teslim noktas\u0131 fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi) talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.\n\nH\u00fcrm\u00fcz k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kal\u0131rsa Yanbu ve F\u00fcceyra \u00fczerinden \u201cbaypas kapasitesi\u201dnin (bo\u011faz\u0131 kullanmadan alternatif hat\/limanlardan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilen miktar) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131s\u0131t olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz yak\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131lmazsa g\u00f6sterge petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (Brent gibi referans fiyatlar) sert y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor.\n\nK\u00f6rfez \u00fcretim kesintileri 10 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesini a\u015farken H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 fiilen kapal\u0131 oldu\u011fundan piyasada \u00e7ok ciddi bir arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fuyor. Bu da petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine i\u015faret ediyor; Brent gibi g\u00f6sterge t\u00fcrler son i\u015flemlerde 165 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu ortamda \u201ct\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde\u201d (fiyat\u0131 petrol gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar ta\u015f\u0131mak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in daha olas\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\n

Y\u00fcksek Dalgalanmada T\u00fcrev Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\nY\u00fczer depolamadan gelen tampon neredeyse tamamen t\u00fckendi; kriz ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana %35\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. \u015eimdi darbe kara stoklar\u0131na yans\u0131yor; EIA\u2019n\u0131n (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) son verileri ABD\u2019de haftal\u0131k 8 milyon varillik stok azalmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum vadeli i\u015flem piyasas\u0131nda belirgin \u201cbackwardation\u201d yarat\u0131yor (yak\u0131n vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n ileri vadelerden daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131); yak\u0131n vade kontratlarda \u201cuzun pozisyonu\u201d (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan pozisyon) olanlar i\u00e7in avantajl\u0131 bir yap\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\nIEA\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnl\u00fck stratejik rezerv sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasay\u0131 sakinle\u015ftirmekte yetersiz kal\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck arz kayb\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc telafi ediyor. ABD\u2019nin SPR takas tekliflerine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ilgi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bunun nedenlerinden biri halihaz\u0131rda yo\u011fun olan terminallerdeki lojistik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k. Etkili bir dengeleyici ad\u0131m\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131, piyasay\u0131 arz \u015fokuna daha a\u00e7\u0131k hale getiriyor.\n\nA\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyat riski nedeniyle WTI (ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) ve Brent \u00fczerinde \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan temel bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak OVX gibi petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksleri (opsiyonlardan t\u00fcretilen beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) 80\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in bu opsiyonlar\u0131n primi y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u201cbo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti azaltan yap\u0131) ile giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi tercih ediyor. 2025\u2019te K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k aksakl\u0131klar\u0131nda daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekte benzer bir oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, ancak mevcut tablo \u00e7ok daha a\u011f\u0131r.`\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz fiilen kapal\u0131: petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %98 \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de kesintiler 10 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn \u00fcst\u00fc. Y\u00fczer stok tamponu bitti, IEA\/SPR yetersiz. Brent 165$+; backwardation g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor, long\/call-spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31161"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31161\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}