{"id":31142,"date":"2026-03-25T16:03:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T16:03:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/nomura-piyasalar-aralik-2026ya-kadar-ecbden-uc-faiz-artisi-bekliyor-boenin-iran-sokuna-tepkisine-paralel\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T16:03:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T16:03:03","slug":"nomura-piyasalar-aralik-2026ya-kadar-ecbden-uc-faiz-artisi-bekliyor-boenin-iran-sokuna-tepkisine-paralel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/nomura-piyasalar-aralik-2026ya-kadar-ecbden-uc-faiz-artisi-bekliyor-boenin-iran-sokuna-tepkisine-paralel\/","title":{"rendered":"Nomura: Piyasalar Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019ya kadar ECB\u2019den \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor; BoE\u2019nin \u0130ran \u015fokuna tepkisine paralel"},"content":{"rendered":"Piyasalar, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokuna tepki olarak Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019ya kadar ECB\u2019den (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve BoE (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) i\u00e7in de benzer bir rota fiyatl\u0131yor. Nomura\u2019n\u0131n temel tahmini ise ECB ve BoE politika faizlerinin 2027 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.\n\nRaporda, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun 2022\u2019deki Avrupa enerji krizinden farkl\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmaya da dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor.\n\n

Euro Area Uk Divergence<\/h3>\nNomura, ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in petrol fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 bir ko\u015ful belirliyor. Brent petrol (Kuzey Denizi referans ham petrol fiyat\u0131) ECB\u2019nin haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95\u2013100 dolar band\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa, ECB\u2019nin haziranda 25 baz puan (faizde y\u00fczde 0,25 puan) art\u0131r\u0131ma gidip eyl\u00fclde bir 25 baz puan daha art\u0131rabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nPiyasalar, y\u0131l sonuna kadar Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ciddi \u015fekilde yanl\u0131\u015f okumak anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu beklenti, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla olu\u015fan enerji \u015fokundan kaynaklan\u0131yor; ancak ekonominin temel dinamikleri 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha zay\u0131f. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 faiz, petrol gibi g\u00f6stergelere ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar, piyasadaki \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizde art\u0131\u015f bekleyen) havan\u0131n abart\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n\nGe\u00e7mi\u015ften en b\u00fcy\u00fck fark, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) daha sakin seyretmesi. \u015eubat 2026 verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu, 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen %5\u2019e yakla\u015fan h\u0131zlanman\u0131n \u00e7ok uza\u011f\u0131nda. \u0130malat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralma) da 48,5 ile daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da daha \u00f6nce fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, pandemi sonras\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 sert ad\u0131mlar atmaya itti\u011fi d\u00f6nemle keskin bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.\n\n

Trading Implications For Rates<\/h3>\nEuro B\u00f6lgesi ile Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta hizmet enflasyonu (\u00f6zellikle kira, ula\u015ft\u0131rma, \u00f6zel hizmetler) daha \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) seyrediyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde toplu s\u00f6zle\u015fmeli \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelere g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde yava\u015flad\u0131; bu da \u00fccret-fiyat sarmal\u0131 (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131, fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fccretleri besleyen d\u00f6ng\u00fc) riskini azalt\u0131yor. Bu temel farklar, ECB\u2019nin BoE\u2019ye k\u0131yasla faiz art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in daha az gerek\u00e7esi oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nBu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ECB faizlerinin vadeli fiyatlaman\u0131n (forward curve; piyasadaki gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz beklentileri e\u011frisi) ima etti\u011finden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Aral\u0131k 2026 Euribor vadeli kontrat\u0131 al\u0131nabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri silinirse bu kontrat\u0131n fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckselir. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda (taraflar\u0131n sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizi takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u201csabit faiz almak\u201d (receive fixed; sabit faizi tahsil edip de\u011fi\u015fken \u00f6demek) da mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc do\u011frudan ifade etmenin bir yolu olabilir.\n\nBu stratejinin ana riski petrol fiyat\u0131. Brent ham petrol bu ay varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Petrol, ECB\u2019nin haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken 95\u2013100 dolar band\u0131nda y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa, enflasyon beklentilerini (halk\u0131n ve piyasan\u0131n gelecekte enflasyonun nereye gidece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131) kontrol etmek i\u00e7in ECB\u2019yi isteksiz de olsa faiz art\u0131rmaya itebilir. Bu i\u015flem i\u00e7in izlenmesi gereken kritik unsur, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda enerji piyasas\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler olacak.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla enerji \u015foku nedeniyle ECB\/BoE\u2019den 2026 sonuna dek \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; Nomura temkinli: \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon zay\u0131f. Brent 95\u2013100$ kal\u0131rsa s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f; aksi halde \u015fahinlik abart\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31142\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}