{"id":31138,"date":"2026-03-25T14:04:26","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T14:04:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/lagarde-ecbnin-orta-dogudaki-enerji-sokunu-izledigini-adim-atmadan-once-ucretleri-ve-fiyatlama-beklentilerini-takip-ettigini-soyledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T14:04:26","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T14:04:26","slug":"lagarde-ecbnin-orta-dogudaki-enerji-sokunu-izledigini-adim-atmadan-once-ucretleri-ve-fiyatlama-beklentilerini-takip-ettigini-soyledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/lagarde-ecbnin-orta-dogudaki-enerji-sokunu-izledigini-adim-atmadan-once-ucretleri-ve-fiyatlama-beklentilerini-takip-ettigini-soyledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Lagarde, ECB\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki enerji \u015fokunu izledi\u011fini, ad\u0131m atmadan \u00f6nce \u00fccretleri ve fiyatlama beklentilerini takip etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi"},"content":{"rendered":"Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB), Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enflasyonu nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyor. Odak noktas\u0131, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki \u015fokun \u201cikinci tur etkiler\u201de yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131. (\u0130kinci tur etkiler: Enerji gibi bir kalemdeki ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin di\u011fer \u00fcr\u00fcnlere yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 zamlar \u00fczerinden genel fiyatlara yay\u0131lmas\u0131.) AMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 AMB ve \u0130zleyicileri konferans\u0131nda anlatt\u0131.\n\nY\u00f6netim Konseyi, \u015firketlerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 beklentileri ve \u00fccret g\u00f6stergeleri gibi sinyalleri izliyor. (Sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 beklentisi: \u015eirketlerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde \u00fcr\u00fcn\/hizmet fiyatlar\u0131na zam yapma niyetini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket verileri. \u00dccret g\u00f6stergeleri: \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 takip eden veriler.) Ama\u00e7, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enerjiden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha geni\u015f enflasyona yay\u0131l\u0131p yay\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek.\n\nEnflasyon AMB\u2019nin hedefinden kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde saparsa daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir politika tepkisi gelebilir. (Politika tepkisi: Faiz gibi ara\u00e7larla ekonomiyi so\u011futma ya da destekleme ad\u0131mlar\u0131.) Anlat\u0131lan ko\u015fullara g\u00f6re, yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmiyor.\n\nTD Securities, 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nAMB, son enerji \u015fokuna hemen kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermek yerine beklemeyi tercih etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, k\u0131sa vadede faiz art\u0131rmak yerine \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin fiyat belirleme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izleyecekleri anlam\u0131na geliyor. (Fiyat belirleme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131: \u015eirketlerin maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ve ne h\u0131zla sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131.) Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli faiz hareketlili\u011finin (oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n) azalabilece\u011fine dair bir i\u015faret olarak okuyoruz.\n\nAMB\u2019nin izledi\u011fi verileri yak\u0131ndan takip etmek gerekiyor. Man\u015fet enflasyon (toplam enflasyon) \u015eubat 2026\u2019da petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 daha \u201ctemel\u201d fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) %2,5\u2019e geriliyor. Kritik veri olan anla\u015fmal\u0131 \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde %4,1\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131; bu da AMB\u2019ye beklemek i\u00e7in alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor.\n\nPozisyonlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, faiz e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik daha sa\u011flam kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. (Faiz e\u011frisi: Farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczeyi; \u201ck\u0131sa vade\u201d k\u0131sm\u0131 piyasada en h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyatlanan b\u00f6l\u00fcmd\u00fcr.) Euribor vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 satmak bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. (Euribor vadeli i\u015flemleri: Avrupa\u2019da bankalar aras\u0131 faiz beklentisinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler. Oynakl\u0131k satmak: Faizlerde b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklemeyip daha sakin seyre oynayan strateji.) Merkez bankas\u0131 \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d mesaj\u0131n\u0131 net verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesinde daha sakin bir d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in konum al\u0131nabilir.\n\nBu \u201csab\u0131rl\u0131\u201d duru\u015f, \u00f6zellikle daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli\/s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine k\u0131yasla Euro \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. 2025\u2019te, para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n (\u00fclkelerin faiz\/para politikas\u0131 farklar\u0131n\u0131n) d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; benzer dinamik yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Euro\u2019nun yatay ya da zay\u0131f seyrinden faydalanan i\u015flemler kurgulanabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin put almak (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan opsiyon) veya \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d call satmak (kur mevcut seviyenin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131k\u00e7a prim geliri sa\u011flayan opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131). (Out-of-the-money: Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan opsiyon.)\n\nBanka, bu enerji \u015fokunu 2022\u2019deki \u015foktan farkl\u0131 ele al\u0131yor. Daha \u00e7ok temel enflasyona odaklan\u0131yor ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ilk s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 bir s\u00fcre \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelmeye\u201d (ge\u00e7ici kabul etmeye) daha istekli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu da \u201csert\u201d bir ad\u0131m\u0131n, enflasyonun ekonomiye yerle\u015fti\u011fine (kal\u0131c\u0131 hale geldi\u011fine; \u00fccret-fiyat sarmal\u0131 gibi mekanizmalarla s\u00fcrekli hale gelmesine) dair net kan\u0131ta ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasada g\u00f6zler AMB\u2019de: Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foku enflasyona yay\u0131l\u0131r m\u0131? Lagarde, \u00fccret ve fiyat beklentilerini izleyip \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d sinyali veriyor; k\u0131sa vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31138\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}