{"id":31129,"date":"2026-03-25T12:06:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T12:06:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bnyden-geoff-yu-hanehalki-zayiflarken-avrupa-merkez-bankalari-faiz-artislarinda-beklentinin-altinda-kalabilir-ihtiyari-tuketim-geride-kamu-hizmetleri-onde\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T12:06:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T12:06:30","slug":"bnyden-geoff-yu-hanehalki-zayiflarken-avrupa-merkez-bankalari-faiz-artislarinda-beklentinin-altinda-kalabilir-ihtiyari-tuketim-geride-kamu-hizmetleri-onde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bnyden-geoff-yu-hanehalki-zayiflarken-avrupa-merkez-bankalari-faiz-artislarinda-beklentinin-altinda-kalabilir-ihtiyari-tuketim-geride-kamu-hizmetleri-onde\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019den Geoff Yu: Hanehalk\u0131 zay\u0131flarken Avrupa merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalabilir; ihtiyari t\u00fcketim geride, kamu hizmetleri \u00f6nde"},"content":{"rendered":"BNY\u2019den Geoff Yu, hanehalk\u0131 talebi zay\u0131flarken geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n (\u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019da) piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 yapmayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkilileri, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki belirsizlik ve bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ko\u015fullar\u0131n 2022-2023 d\u00f6neminden farkl\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle mevcut faiz beklentilerini sorgulad\u0131.\n\nMakaleye g\u00f6re hanehalk\u0131 talebi zaten zay\u0131f ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u201cikinci tur etkisi\u201d (ilk \u015foktan sonra ekonomiye yay\u0131lan dolayl\u0131 etkiler) olarak daha da gerileyebilir. Ayr\u0131ca merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bu ko\u015fullara kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (y\u00fcksek enflasyonla birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme) uyar\u0131lar\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.\n\n<h3>\u00c7at\u0131\u015fmadan Bu Yana Sekt\u00f6r Ak\u0131mlar\u0131<\/h3>  \niFlow verileri, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana geli\u015fmi\u015f piyasalarda en k\u00f6t\u00fc performans\u0131n \u201ct\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d (zorunlu olmayan, ertelenebilir harcamalara ba\u011fl\u0131 \u015firketler) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Makale bunu \u201carz \u015foku\u201dna (enerji ve girdi gibi temel kalemlerde ani bozulma) kar\u015f\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor.\n\nDaha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerini fiyatlara yans\u0131tabilen sekt\u00f6rlerde ise ak\u0131mlar\u0131n daha iyi oldu\u011fu s\u00f6yleniyor. \u201cUtilities\u201d (elektrik, su, do\u011falgaz gibi kamu hizmetleri \u015firketleri) hem geli\u015fmi\u015f hem de geli\u015fen piyasalarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sekt\u00f6r olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca EM \u201chedge ratio\u201dlar\u0131n\u0131n (kur riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan koruman\u0131n oran\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.\n\nMerkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019da, piyasalar\u0131n \u015fu an fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tam olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyoruz. Yetkililer ekonomik belirsizli\u011fi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; bu, 2022 ve 2023\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminden belirgin bir kopu\u015f. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, gelecekte faizlerin beklenenden daha az y\u00fckselmesi halinde kazand\u0131rabilecek i\u015flemleri de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Alman Bund vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 (devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) almak.\n\nBu temkinli duru\u015fun ana nedeni, son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201cart\u00e7\u0131 etki\u201d olarak hanehalk\u0131 talebinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131. Mart 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verileri 65,2\u2019ye gerileyerek beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu da harcamalarda frene i\u015faret ediyor. Bu stagflasyon ortam\u0131, pandemi sonras\u0131 toparlanma d\u00f6neminden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politikay\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131racak (faizi art\u0131racak) alan\u0131 daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015flem Etkileri ve Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>  \nBu t\u00fcketici zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00f6t\u00fc performans\u0131na do\u011frudan yans\u0131yor; bu da sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) alabilir veya zorunlu olmayan \u00fcr\u00fcn satan \u015firketlerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek endekslerde vadeli kontrat satabilir. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana performans bunu destekliyor; t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019ler (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fonlar) \u00f6rne\u011fin XLY, ocaktan bu yana %7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde geriledi.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketiciye yans\u0131tabilen sekt\u00f6rlerde, \u00f6zellikle utilities taraf\u0131nda f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u015firketler \u201cdefansif\u201dtir (ekonomi zay\u0131flarken g\u00f6rece dayan\u0131kl\u0131) ve \u201cesnek olmayan talep\u201dten (fiyat artsa da talebin \u00e7ok az azalmas\u0131) faydalan\u0131r; bu nedenle \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak yat\u0131r\u0131m ak\u0131m\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu y\u0131l zaten %4 y\u00fckselen XLU gibi bir ETF \u00fczerinden \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) almak, \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201ccall opsiyonu\u201d (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) ile, daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n\nBu iki sekt\u00f6r aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u201cpairs trade\u201di (bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun, di\u011ferini k\u0131sa tutarak farktan getiri hedefleyen strateji) etkili k\u0131labilir: utilities uzun, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u0131sa. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, zay\u0131flayan t\u00fcketici talebinin etkisini genel piyasa hareketlerinden daha iyi ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Geli\u015fen piyasalarda ak\u0131mlar daha iyi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de belirsizlik y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan, olas\u0131 uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 opsiyonlarla korumay\u0131 (hedge etmeyi) \u00f6neriyoruz.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00fcrpriz faiz freni mi geliyor? BNY\u2019ye g\u00f6re zay\u0131flayan hanehalk\u0131 talebi ve enerji belirsizli\u011fi, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; strateji: Bund long, utilities long, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 short.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31129","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31129"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31129\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}