{"id":31125,"date":"2026-03-25T12:03:25","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T12:03:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-2026ya-yonelik-dusus-beklentisine-ragmen-risk-primlerinin-yuksek-seyretmesiyle-abd-dolarinin-yukselmesini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T12:03:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T12:03:25","slug":"td-securities-2026ya-yonelik-dusus-beklentisine-ragmen-risk-primlerinin-yuksek-seyretmesiyle-abd-dolarinin-yukselmesini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-2026ya-yonelik-dusus-beklentisine-ragmen-risk-primlerinin-yuksek-seyretmesiyle-abd-dolarinin-yukselmesini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, 2026\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine ra\u011fmen risk primlerinin y\u00fcksek seyretmesiyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities, k\u00fcresel risk primi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirsizlik i\u00e7in talep etti\u011fi ek getiri) y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Banka 2026 i\u00e7in dolar konusunda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (zay\u0131flama) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc korurken, yak\u0131n vadede g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) dolar\u0131 destekleyebilece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nBanka, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sava\u015fa y\u00f6nelik bir \u201c\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolu\u201d (gerilimi azaltacak senaryo) olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman primini azalt\u0131p dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fini ifade etti. Ayr\u0131ca ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin \u201cistisnai\u201d (di\u011fer \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re belirgin \u00fcst\u00fcn) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00f6nmesi ve \u201cHedge America\u201d i\u015flemlerinin (ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na\/dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 riskten korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyonlar) artmas\u0131 ihtimalini de dolar i\u00e7in ek bask\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6sterdi.\n\n<h3>Near Term Dollar Support<\/h3>\nTD Securities, b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) artabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funun (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya\/ art\u0131rmaya e\u011filimli yakla\u015f\u0131m) ge\u00e7ici destek sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini, ancak hisse senetleri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 ve faizlerde daha geni\u015f bir \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) hareketinin dolara al\u0131m getirebilece\u011fini ekledi.\n\nRaporda, pozisyon kapatma dalgas\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n birikmi\u015f i\u015flemleri kapatmas\u0131), hisselerde sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki \u015foklar\u0131n (ithalat-ihracat fiyat dengesi bozulmas\u0131) dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip G10 i\u00e7inde y\u00fcksek beta (risk i\u015ftah\u0131na daha duyarl\u0131) para birimleri ile geli\u015fen \u00fclke kurlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilece\u011fi belirtildi. Banka, HFFV modeline (uzun vadeli \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d hesaplamas\u0131 yapan de\u011ferleme modeli) g\u00f6re dolar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 pahal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve son d\u00f6nemde faiz fark\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na (piyasan\u0131n \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 faiz beklentisini kur fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131tmas\u0131) paralel \u015fekilde zay\u0131flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da kaydetti.\n\nBanka, pozisyonlar\u0131n temizlenmesi (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kalabal\u0131k i\u015flemlerin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131) ve teknik olarak \u201cucuz\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn azalmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcnde dolara y\u00f6nelik i\u015flem a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 negatife (dolar pozisyonunu azaltma\/ters y\u00f6nde konumlanma) \u00e7evirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.\n\nK\u00fcresel risk primi y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Son jeopolitik tedirginlik ve ge\u00e7en hafta 48,5 gelen zay\u0131f Avrupa PMI verisi (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131nda tutuyor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, ancak \u015fimdilik ana etken g\u00fcvenlik aray\u0131\u015f\u0131.\n\n<h3>Volatility And Positioning Shifts<\/h3>\nK\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k\u00e7a d\u00f6viz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu, opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) de\u011ferlendirmeyi g\u00fcndeme getiriyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc VIX endeksi (piyasa oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) son seanslarda 19\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu ortamda Avustralya dolar\u0131 gibi y\u00fcksek beta para birimleri ve geli\u015fen \u00fclke kurlar\u0131 daha fazla bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir.\n\nDolar\u0131n, temel g\u00f6stergelerin (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, cari denge gibi) desteklemedi\u011fi bir primle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bunun 2025\u2019in baz\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerindeki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme benzedi\u011fini belirtiyoruz. ABD faiz beklentileri Avrupa\u2019ya k\u0131yasla yumu\u015fam\u0131\u015f olsa da (piyasa bu y\u0131l yaln\u0131zca bir ek Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor), dolar buna paralel zay\u0131flamad\u0131. Bu da \u015fimdilik g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n (dolara y\u00f6nelen talep) faiz fark\u0131 etkisini bast\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\n\nKalabal\u0131k pozisyonlar ve gerilmi\u015f de\u011ferlemeler nedeniyle portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fczde dolara y\u00f6nelik i\u015flem a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 negatife \u00e7ektik. USD\u2019de uzun pozisyonla (dolar\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fini bekleyerek al\u0131nan i\u015flem) elde edilen kolay kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n bitti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz ve dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli f\u0131rsatlar ar\u0131yoruz. Bu, USD al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak (call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131; dolar y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 prim toplayan strateji) veya risk priminin h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi durumunda kazand\u0131racak i\u015flemler kurgulamak \u015feklinde olabilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Risk primi d\u00fc\u015fmeden dolar d\u00fc\u015fmez! TD Securities, jeopolitik gerilim ve g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle USD\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak 2026\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve \u201cHedge America\u201d ile bask\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31125"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31125\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}