{"id":31116,"date":"2026-03-25T09:09:52","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T09:09:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ing-ekonomistleri-nbhnin-faizi-625te-sabit-tuttugunu-orta-dogu-savasi-sonrasi-daha-sahin-bir-durus-benimseyerek-gevseme-beklentilerini-sinirladigini-bildirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T09:09:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T09:09:52","slug":"ing-ekonomistleri-nbhnin-faizi-625te-sabit-tuttugunu-orta-dogu-savasi-sonrasi-daha-sahin-bir-durus-benimseyerek-gevseme-beklentilerini-sinirladigini-bildirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ing-ekonomistleri-nbhnin-faizi-625te-sabit-tuttugunu-orta-dogu-savasi-sonrasi-daha-sahin-bir-durus-benimseyerek-gevseme-beklentilerini-sinirladigini-bildirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"ING ekonomistleri, NBH\u2019nin faizi %6,25\u2019te sabit tuttu\u011funu; Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015f benimseyerek gev\u015feme beklentilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"ING ekonomistleri Peter Virovacz ve Zolt\u00e1n Homolya, Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MNB) 24 Mart 2026\u2019da politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye y\u00f6n veren ana faiz oran\u0131) %6,25\u2019te sabit tuttu\u011funu bildiriyor. Ekonomistler, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert oynamas\u0131) sonras\u0131 bankan\u0131n daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir duru\u015fa (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma\/e\u011filimi) ge\u00e7ti\u011fini belirtiyor.\n\nEkonomistlere g\u00f6re man\u015fet enflasyon (genel t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) \u015fubatta son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Bu da d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 fiyat \u015foku (\u00f6zellikle enerji gibi ithal kalemlerden gelen ani fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Macaristan\u2019\u0131 nispeten iyi bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 konumuna getiriyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin ana senaryolar\u0131nda, enflasyonda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 civar\u0131nda dengelenme bekliyorlar.\n\n<h3>National Bank Of Hungary Holds Rate<\/h3>\nEkonomistler, ana senaryolar\u0131na %40 olas\u0131l\u0131k veriyor ve enerji etkileri zay\u0131flarsa enflasyonun MNB tolerans band\u0131 i\u00e7inde (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kabul edilebilir g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc hedef \u00e7evresi) kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu senaryoda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015flerin (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n kritik hatt\u0131) yaz aylar\u0131na do\u011fru normale d\u00f6nmesini bekliyorlar.\n\nBu yolda, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonuna do\u011fru faiz indirimi i\u00e7in alan olu\u015fabilece\u011fini; y\u0131l sonunda politika faizinin %6,00\u2019ya inebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. %30 olas\u0131l\u0131k verdikleri \u201cuzun sava\u015f\u201d senaryosunda ise forintin (Macar para birimi) ilave deste\u011fe ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve MNB\u2019nin ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) ile uyumlu \u015fekilde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrekte iki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar.\n\nYaz\u0131 bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 kullan\u0131larak haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilmi\u015ftir.\n\n<h3>Market Focus Shifts To Risk<\/h3>\n\u015eubat ay\u0131ndaki %3,5\u2019lik man\u015fet enflasyon verisi 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc oldu\u011fundan, d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 fiyat \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 bir tampon (etkiyi azaltan pay) sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ancak Brent petrol\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel petrol fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in referans) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yeni \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tonunu a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Piyasa art\u0131k bu enerji \u015fokunun etkisini, yurt i\u00e7i fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama zemininde tart\u0131yor.\n\nForintte stres i\u015faretleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; ge\u00e7en hafta euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 405 seviyesinin \u00fczerine zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu, 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeniden ak\u0131llara getiriyor. Bu kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (para biriminin de\u011fer kayb\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funun ana nedeni. O d\u00f6nemde enerji \u015foklar\u0131 enflasyonu \u00e7ift haneye ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f ve agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 (faiz art\u0131rarak talebi so\u011futma) zorunlu k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\n\nY\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi ile faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskinin ayn\u0131 anda masada olmas\u0131, oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, EUR\/HUF kurunda \u201cstraddle\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejilerini (opsiyon: belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131; straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefleme) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Forint opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k) son iki haftada %15 artt\u0131; bu da belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.\n\nForward rate agreement (FRA) piyasas\u0131 (gelecekteki faiz i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden anla\u015fma yap\u0131lan ara\u00e7) art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %70\u2019ti. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131yla ekonomiyi y\u00f6nlendirme) seyrini h\u0131zla yeniden de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Kritik olan, enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sevkiyata ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izlemek olacak.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u015eahin MNB frene bast\u0131: Faiz %6,25\u2019te kald\u0131. Petrol 110$+, forintte stres. ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re enflasyon \u015fokta k\u0131sa y\u00fckselip %4\u2019e d\u00f6nebilir; y\u0131l sonu %6,00 olas\u0131, art\u0131\u015f riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31116\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}