{"id":31099,"date":"2026-03-25T05:03:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T05:03:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/trump-orta-dogudaki-gerilimi-azaltmak-icin-iranla-anlasma-arayisinda-ancak-basari-ihtimali-genel-olarak-dusuk-kaliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T05:03:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T05:03:11","slug":"trump-orta-dogudaki-gerilimi-azaltmak-icin-iranla-anlasma-arayisinda-ancak-basari-ihtimali-genel-olarak-dusuk-kaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/trump-orta-dogudaki-gerilimi-azaltmak-icin-iranla-anlasma-arayisinda-ancak-basari-ihtimali-genel-olarak-dusuk-kaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimi azaltmak i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019la anla\u015fma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda; ancak ba\u015far\u0131 ihtimali genel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"Reuters\u2019in sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sona erdirmeyi hedefleyen \u0130ran\u2019la bir anla\u015fma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda. \u0130ran ise \u00f6zel temsilci Steve Witkoff ya da Jared Kushner yerine ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance ile temasa ge\u00e7meyi tercih edece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nG\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta ABD-\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flamas\u0131yla sona ermi\u015fti. \u0130srailli bir yetkili, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yeni m\u00fczakerelerde ABD taleplerini kabul etmesinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.\n\n<h3>Temel ABD Talepleri<\/h3>\nABD\u2019nin talepleri aras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer kapasitesini ortadan kald\u0131rmas\u0131, \u0130ran topraklar\u0131nda uranyum zenginle\u015ftirmeyi durdurmas\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 60 oran\u0131nda zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k 450 kilogram uranyumu (n\u00fckleer yak\u0131t yap\u0131m\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan, zenginle\u015ftirme seviyesi art\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f uranyum) belirlenen bir takvimle UAEA\u2019ya (Uluslararas\u0131 Atom Enerjisi Ajans\u0131; n\u00fckleer faaliyetleri denetleyen BM kurumu) teslim etmesi yer al\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca Natanz, \u0130sfahan ve Fordo tesislerinin s\u00f6k\u00fclmesi ve UAEA\u2019ya tam eri\u015fim ile denetim yetkisi verilmesi isteniyor.\n\nDi\u011fer talepler aras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki \u201cvekil g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d (bir \u00fclkenin do\u011frudan sava\u015fmak yerine destekledi\u011fi silahl\u0131 gruplar \u00fczerinden etki kurmas\u0131) modeline son vermesi, bu gruplara finansman ve silah deste\u011fini durdurmas\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k tutulmas\u0131 ve f\u00fcze kapasitesinin menzil ve say\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 bulunuyor. F\u00fczelerin sadece \u201cme\u015fru savunma\u201d (kendini koruma ama\u00e7l\u0131) i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n\nPaket, uluslararas\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sivil n\u00fckleer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na (\u00f6rne\u011fin Bu\u015fehr\u2019de elektrik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in n\u00fckleer enerji) destek vermesini ve \u201csnapback\u201d yapt\u0131r\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eriyor. \u201cRisk-on\u201d, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara (hisse senedi gibi) y\u00f6nelmesi; \u201crisk-off\u201d ise daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara (devlet tahvili gibi) ge\u00e7mesi anlam\u0131na gelir.\n\nRisk-on d\u00f6nemlerinde hisse senetleri, alt\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7o\u011fu emtia, emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 para birimleri ve kripto varl\u0131klar genelde y\u00fckselir. Risk-off d\u00f6nemlerinde ise b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fclkelerin devlet tahvilleri, alt\u0131n ve ABD dolar\u0131, Japon yeni ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme e\u011filimindeyken; Avustralya, Kanada ve Yeni Zelanda dolarlar\u0131 ile rublenin ve G\u00fcney Afrika rand\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.\n\nABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali piyasalar i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor ve \u201cikili sonu\u00e7\u201d (ya anla\u015fma ya ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k) riski do\u011furuyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesiyle sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde sert risk-off hareketleri g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da benzer bir senaryonun nas\u0131l fiyatlanabilece\u011fine dair bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunuyor. Mevcut diplomatik \u00e7aba, sert bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ihtimalini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasalarda \u201coynanacak ana tema\u201d volatilite (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Piyasa Etkisi Senaryolar\u0131<\/h3>\nHam petrol piyasas\u0131 bu habere en duyarl\u0131 alan, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnyan\u0131n petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7iyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksi OVX (petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 55\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131 ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ay i\u00e7inde varil ba\u015f\u0131na her iki y\u00f6nde yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 dolarl\u0131k bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in petrol ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) uzun straddle veya strangle (opsiyon stratejileri: ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonlar\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma) gibi y\u00f6ntemleri de\u011ferlendirebilir.\n\nJeopolitik gerilim, piyasan\u0131n \u201ckorku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d VIX\u2019i (S&#038;P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi) 18 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ilk \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde VIX 30\u2019un \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f, alg\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Riskin y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle S&#038;P 500 gibi endekslerde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in daha ucuz olan) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, ani bir diplomatik ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.\n\nD\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 halinde g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara ka\u00e7mas\u0131) h\u0131zlanabilir. Gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede euroya kar\u015f\u0131 belirgin de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Japon yeni (JPY) veya \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131nda (CHF) al\u0131m opsiyonu ile Avustralya dolar\u0131 gibi daha riskli para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zararla (\u00f6nden belli riskle) olas\u0131 bir m\u00fczakere k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.\n\nBuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k anla\u015fma, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk-on rallisini tetikleyebilir. Emtia para birimleri, \u00f6zellikle Avustralya ve Kanada dolar\u0131, hem artan iyimserlikten hem de petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin desteklenmesi beklentisinden fayda g\u00f6rebilir. AUD\/USD paritesinde (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) al\u0131m opsiyonu, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131na hassas bu para birimi \u00fczerinden olumlu senaryoya daha y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyeliyle maruz kalma sa\u011flayabilir.\n\nK\u00fcresel ticarete ba\u011fl\u0131 varl\u0131klar da izlenmeli; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Daha \u00f6nce gerilim sonras\u0131 tankerler i\u00e7in deniz sigortas\u0131 primleri (sigorta bedeli) ciddi bi\u00e7imde artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bu maliyetleri h\u0131zla gerileterek denizcilik ve lojistik \u015firketlerini destekleyebilir.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar\u0131n yeni ana temas\u0131: \u0130ran-ABD anla\u015fmas\u0131 m\u0131, kriz mi? Trump m\u00fczakere ar\u0131yor, \u0130ran JD Vance\u2019\u0131 istiyor. N\u00fckleer, f\u00fcze ve vekiller masada; petrol, VIX, FX\u2019de volatilite t\u0131rman\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31099\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}