{"id":31069,"date":"2026-03-24T23:02:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T23:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-ecb-gozlemcileri-konferansi-ve-pmi-verilerinin-beklentilere-yon-verecegini-ongorurken-politika-yapicilar-sabir-cagrisi-yapiyor-ve-gerektiginde-harekete-gecmeye-hazir-olduklarini-vurgul\/"},"modified":"2026-03-24T23:02:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T23:02:10","slug":"td-securities-ecb-gozlemcileri-konferansi-ve-pmi-verilerinin-beklentilere-yon-verecegini-ongorurken-politika-yapicilar-sabir-cagrisi-yapiyor-ve-gerektiginde-harekete-gecmeye-hazir-olduklarini-vurgul","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-ecb-gozlemcileri-konferansi-ve-pmi-verilerinin-beklentilere-yon-verecegini-ongorurken-politika-yapicilar-sabir-cagrisi-yapiyor-ve-gerektiginde-harekete-gecmeye-hazir-olduklarini-vurgul\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, ECB G\u00f6zlemcileri Konferans\u0131 ve PMI verilerinin beklentilere y\u00f6n verece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar sab\u0131r \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131yor ve gerekti\u011finde harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor"},"content":{"rendered":"ECB Watchers Konferans\u0131\u2019nda Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, Olli Rehn ve Robert Holzmann\u2019\u0131n jeopolitik riskler ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) ele almas\u0131 bekleniyor. ECB\u2019nin, gerekti\u011finde m\u00fcdahale etmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu yinelemesi; ancak riskleri g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in daha fazla zamana ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funu vurgulamas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konumda oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131 verilebilir.\n\nMart PMI verileri (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: \u015firket anketlerinden t\u00fcretilen, b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/ daralma e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge) Fransa ve Almanya\u2019da ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fransa\u2019da hizmet PMI 48,3\u2019e geriledi (TDS\/piyasa: 49,0); bu seviye, jeopolitik belirsizlik ve se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi temkin nedeniyle talep zay\u0131flarken daralman\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.\n\n

France Germany PMI Divergence<\/h3>\nAlmanya\u2019da imalat PMI 51,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi (TDS: 49,0; piyasa: 49,5) ve \u00fcretimde d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. \u0130yile\u015fme, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 sipari\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve stok yapmaya (olas\u0131 kesintilere kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nceden mal biriktirme) ba\u011fland\u0131.\n\nGirdi maliyetleri (enerji ve hammadde gibi \u00fcretim maliyetleri) her iki \u00fclkede de y\u00fckseldi. Ancak \u015firketler, bu maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 hen\u00fcz t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na tam yans\u0131tmad\u0131.\n\n\u0130stihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131 Fransa ve Almanya\u2019da zay\u0131flad\u0131. \u0130\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar h\u0131zlan\u0131rken i\u015fe al\u0131mlar yava\u015flad\u0131; i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveni de \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 belirsizlik nedeniyle bozuldu.\n\nECB, \u015fimdilik \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu koruyor ve politika ad\u0131m\u0131 atmadan \u00f6nce daha fazla zamana ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (faizlerin k\u0131sa vadede sert hareket etme ihtimali; \u00f6r. Euribor opsiyonlar\u0131: Euribor faizi \u00fczerine i\u015flem g\u00f6ren opsiyon s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) yak\u0131n vadede pahal\u0131 fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Mevduat faizi %3,50\u2019deyken piyasan\u0131n yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi beklentisi, bu temkinli mesajlarla bask\u0131lan\u0131yor.\n\n

Cross Market Relative Value<\/h3>\nAvrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck iki ekonomisi aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma \u201cg\u00f6reli de\u011fer\u201d (iki varl\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki performans fark\u0131ndan yararlanma) f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterece\u011fi beklentisiyle DAX al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) al\u0131p, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k CAC 40 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) ile e\u015fle\u015ftirmek olabilir. Ama\u00e7, Fransa\u2019daki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Avrupa geneli piyasa hareketlerinden (beta: piyasa ile birlikte hareket etme d\u00fczeyi) ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak.\n\nBrent petrol\u00fcn yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle y\u00fckselen girdi maliyetleri, hen\u00fcz t\u00fcketici enflasyonuna tam yans\u0131mam\u0131\u015f \u00f6nemli bir risk. \u015eubat 2026 HICP (Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin ortak enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) beklentisinin %2,8 olmas\u0131, enflasyonun \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Maliyetlerin fiyatlara yans\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bir i\u015faret g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse, ECB y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde daha erken veya daha farkl\u0131 ad\u0131m atmak zorunda kalabilir. PPI (\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi: \u00fcreticinin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en, enflasyon i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc sinyal) verileri bu a\u00e7\u0131dan yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.\n

\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n – Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ECB Watchers\u2019da Lagarde ekibi jeopolitik riskler, faiz ve likiditeyi masaya yat\u0131r\u0131yor: ECB bekle-g\u00f6r, m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r. Mart PMI\u2019larda Almanya g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken Fransa darald\u0131; petrol kaynakl\u0131 maliyetler enflasyon riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31069\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}