{"id":31062,"date":"2026-03-24T21:03:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T21:03:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dbs-ekonomistine-gore-shinin-istikrar-odakli-yaklasimi-boktan-yakin-vadede-sikilasma-beklenmedigine-isaret-ediyor-guney-korede-faiz-artislari-olasi-gorunmuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-24T21:03:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T21:03:55","slug":"dbs-ekonomistine-gore-shinin-istikrar-odakli-yaklasimi-boktan-yakin-vadede-sikilasma-beklenmedigine-isaret-ediyor-guney-korede-faiz-artislari-olasi-gorunmuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dbs-ekonomistine-gore-shinin-istikrar-odakli-yaklasimi-boktan-yakin-vadede-sikilasma-beklenmedigine-isaret-ediyor-guney-korede-faiz-artislari-olasi-gorunmuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"DBS ekonomistine g\u00f6re Shin\u2019in istikrar odakl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, BoK\u2019tan yak\u0131n vadede s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklenmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor."},"content":{"rendered":"Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Yoon, 22 Mart\u2019ta Shin Hyun-song\u2019u bir sonraki Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bank of Korea) ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak aday g\u00f6sterdi. Shin, Uluslararas\u0131 \u00d6demeler Bankas\u0131\u2019nda (BIS) Para ve Ekonomi Departman\u0131\u2019n\u0131 y\u00f6netmesinin ard\u0131ndan, g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 20 Nisan\u2019da bitecek Rhee Chang-yong\u2019un yerine ge\u00e7ecek.\n\nPiyasalar, alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde politika faizinin (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oran\u0131) 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %2,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 12 ay i\u00e7inde toplam yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %3,50\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Notta, bu fiyatlaman\u0131n mevcut makro ko\u015fullar\u0131n (b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon gibi temel ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler) \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, bunun da k\u0131sa vadeli (\u00f6n u\u00e7) KRW faizlerinde ve Kore Hazine tahvili getirilerinde (tahvil faizi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe alan yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.\n\n<h3>May\u0131s Toplant\u0131s\u0131 Odakta<\/h3>\nDikkatler May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu toplant\u0131da g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f tahminlerini ve faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u201cdot plot\u201du (yetkililerin gelecek d\u00f6nem faiz beklentilerini nokta i\u015faretleriyle g\u00f6steren grafik) yay\u0131mlamas\u0131 bekleniyor. G\u00fcney Kore varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n (hisse, tahvil, para birimi gibi) k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131na (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) olduk\u00e7a duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor.\n\nWon, ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 de\u011fer kaybederek dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 1.500 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ge\u00e7ti. KOSPI %10\u2019dan fazla gerilerken, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Mart\u2019\u0131n ilk 20 g\u00fcn\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20,6 trilyon KRW net hisse \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydetti.\n\nPiyasan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131lda agresif \u015fekilde 100 baz puan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131, belirgin bir yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlama f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Shin Hyun-song\u2019un yeni ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 g\u00f6sterilmesi \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) olarak yorumlan\u0131yor; ancak finansal istikrar (bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi ve piyasalar\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015flemesi) oda\u011f\u0131, daha dengeli ve pratik bir \u00e7izgiye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, G\u00fcney Kore faiz beklentilerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltmeye i\u015faret ediyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayana\u011f\u0131 bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemcileri, k\u0131sa vadeli Kore Won faiz swaplar\u0131nda (de\u011fi\u015fken faizle sabit faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz alma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almay\u0131 veya Kore Hazine Tahvili (KTB) vadeli i\u015flemlerini (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu pozisyon, piyasan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 (faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131) gere\u011finden fazla fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve getirilerin (tahvil faizlerinin) d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r. 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda enflasyon zaten %2 hedefine do\u011fru yava\u015fl\u0131yordu; \u015eubat 2026 itibar\u0131yla T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %2,9\u2019da yatay seyretmesi de bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ekonomik gerek\u00e7esini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.\n\n<h3>Faizlerin Yeniden Fiyatlanmas\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Tetikleyici<\/h3>\nAna tetikleyici May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak; Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu toplant\u0131da g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f tahminlerini ve faiz projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Yeni projeksiyonlar\u0131n daha dengeli bir politika duru\u015funu destekleyerek faizlerde yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetiklemesi bekleniyor. Bu olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi yakalamak i\u00e7in pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ifade ediliyor.\n\nKore Won\u2019un dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1.500\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ge\u00e7en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, i\u00e7 politika beklentilerinden \u00e7ok k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu zay\u0131flama, 2022\u2019de k\u00fcresel enerji fiyat \u015fokunda g\u00f6r\u00fclen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde Kore\u2019nin enerji ithalat\u0131na y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle won %15\u2019ten fazla gerilemi\u015fti. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak bu d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi olas\u0131.\n\nKur taraf\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in en temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n opsiyonlar (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. USD\/KRW al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, k\u00fcresel fakt\u00f6rlerle won\u2019daki olas\u0131 ek de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken, kurun dengelenmesi halinde zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Y\u00fcksek ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) opsiyon satmay\u0131 riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor; ancak al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i gibi (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131n birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131) yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015flemler daha net bir risk-getiri profili sunabilir.\n\nHisse taraf\u0131nda KOSPI\u2019deki %10 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve bu ayki 20,6 trilyon KRW\u2019lik yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ciddi uyar\u0131 sinyalleri. \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131nda satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 25 trilyon KRW\u2019ye yakla\u015f\u0131yor; bu da k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk azaltmaya (pozisyon k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye) gitti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. K\u00fcresel belirsizlikler y\u00fcksek kald\u0131k\u00e7a bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.\n\nBu zeminde, i\u015flemcilerin korunma i\u00e7in KOSPI 200 endeks opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmas\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor. Sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, mevcut portf\u00f6yleri daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruyabilir. Yabanc\u0131 fon ak\u0131mlar\u0131nda istikrar ve jeopolitik risklerde azalma g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden, piyasada toparlanma \u00fczerine pozisyon almak erken g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de BOK\u2019a Shin aday: piyasalar\u0131n 12 ayda 100 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatlamas\u0131 \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u201d olabilir. May\u0131s dot plot tetikleyici; swap\/KTB\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, USD\/KRW opsiyonla koruma, KOSPI\u2019de risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31062"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31062\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}