{"id":31056,"date":"2026-03-24T19:06:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T19:06:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-soklarin-kuresel-olcekte-resmi-sektor-talebini-azaltmasiyla-altindaki-boga-piyasasi-sinirlara-dayaniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-24T19:06:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T19:06:27","slug":"td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-soklarin-kuresel-olcekte-resmi-sektor-talebini-azaltmasiyla-altindaki-boga-piyasasi-sinirlara-dayaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securitiesten-daniel-ghali-soklarin-kuresel-olcekte-resmi-sektor-talebini-azaltmasiyla-altindaki-boga-piyasasi-sinirlara-dayaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities\u2019ten Daniel Ghali: \u015eoklar\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte resmi sekt\u00f6r talebini azaltmas\u0131yla alt\u0131ndaki bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlara dayan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities, alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin (bull run) resmi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn (merkez bankalar\u0131 ve kamu kurumlar\u0131) al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla destek kaybetti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Kurum, bunu Asya\u2019daki enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00fcreticilerin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu enerji \u015foklar\u0131na ba\u011flad\u0131. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n, \u00fclkelerin b\u00fct\u00e7e fazlalar\u0131n\u0131 (surplus) azaltarak alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini belirtti.\n\nNotta ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin liray\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n rezervlerini kullanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fine dair haberlere at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131. TD, resmi sekt\u00f6r talebi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuz ko\u015fullar\u0131n (headwinds) Rusya-Ukrayna d\u00f6neminden bu yana en zorlu seviyede oldu\u011funu ekledi.\n\n<h3>Resmi Sekt\u00f6r Talebi Zay\u0131fl\u0131yor<\/h3>\nTD, alt\u0131na kurumsal (institutional) ve bireysel (retail) kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n zaten y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u201cdebasement\u201d i\u015fleminin (paran\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla alt\u0131n alma temas\u0131) zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha az faiz indirimi yapmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesi, para arz\u0131nda (money supply) belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f olmamas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015felerin azalmas\u0131 bu durumu destekliyor. Notta, Lisa Cook\u2019un davas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir Y\u00fcksek Mahkeme karar\u0131n\u0131n (Supreme Court decision) bu endi\u015feleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi.\n\nTD, son d\u00f6nemdeki fiyat g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc farkl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 gruplar\u0131ndan (sermaye havuzlar\u0131\/capital pools) art arda gelen al\u0131m dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n belirledi\u011fini anlatt\u0131. Bu durumun, pozisyonlar\u0131n zorunlu \u015fekilde kapanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an sert bir d\u00fczeltme (positioning washout) riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.\n\nTD\u2019nin sim\u00fclasyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta bir\u00e7ok senaryo, CTA sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. CTA\u2019lar (computer-driven trend-following funds), algoritmalarla trend izleyen ve otomatik i\u015flem yapan fonlard\u0131r. Bu sat\u0131\u015f, algoritmalar\u0131n \u015eubat 2024\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 (long positions: fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle ta\u015f\u0131nan pozisyon) azaltmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir.\n\n<h3>Pozisyon Temizli\u011fi Riski Art\u0131yor<\/h3>\nAlt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi giderek daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; ana al\u0131c\u0131lar yorulma i\u015faretleri veriyor. Enerji maliyetlerindeki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda ham petrol\u00fcn yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, Asya\u2019daki b\u00fcy\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n mali dengesini zorluyor. Bu durum, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2024 ve 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen agresif h\u0131zda alt\u0131n almaya devam edebilmesi i\u00e7in gereken fazla nakdi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalt\u0131yor.\n\nResmi talepteki bu yava\u015flama daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geliyor. Son raporlar, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n net alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (net purchases: al\u0131\u015flar eksi sat\u0131\u015flar) iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Kendi ekonomik \u015foklar\u0131yla m\u00fccadele eden \u00fclkelerin al\u0131c\u0131 olma ihtimali de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; hatta para birimlerini dengelemek i\u00e7in rezerv satmay\u0131 (reserves: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz\/alt\u0131n varl\u0131klar\u0131) g\u00fcndeme alabilirler. Bu etkenler, piyasay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan \u00f6nemli bir destek aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.\n\nPozisyonlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan (positioning: piyasadaki toplam al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n birikimi) i\u015flem kalabal\u0131k hale gelmi\u015f durumda; fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yacak yeni al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in alan daral\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, kurumsal sahipli\u011fin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi, hik\u00e2ye (narrative: piyasay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiren ana beklenti\/tema) de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde sert d\u00fczeltmelerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abiliyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n dikkat etmesi gereken nokta \u015fu: Trend izleyen bilgisayar destekli CTA fonlar\u0131, \u015eubat 2024\u2019te g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ralliden bu yana ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131klar\u0131 y\u00fcksek \u201cy\u00fckseli\u015f\u201d (bullish) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tasfiye (liquidating: pozisyon kapatma) etme riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.\n\nBu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n tetikleyicisi, alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n ekonomik gerek\u00e7esinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131. Fed, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon nedeniyle faiz indirimlerine ara verme s\u00fcrecinin 2026 boyunca uzayabilece\u011fini i\u015faret etti. Faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisi (daha ucuz finansman) olmadan, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir fiyat geri \u00e7ekilmesi bile CTA fonlar\u0131nda otomatik sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 (algoritmik sat\u0131\u015f) ba\u015flatabilir. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u201cpozisyon temizli\u011fi\u201d riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alt\u0131nda ralli \u00e7at\u0131rd\u0131yor: TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re enerji \u015foku merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin rezerv kullan\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fcndemde. Kalabal\u0131k pozisyonlar ve olas\u0131 CTA sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sert d\u00fczeltme riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31056","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31056"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31056\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31056"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31056"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31056"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}