{"id":31010,"date":"2026-03-24T09:08:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T09:08:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dow-vadeli-islemleri-karmasik-bir-cift-uc-elliott-dalga-duzeltmesi-yasiyor-dongu-nisan-2025-diplerinden-itibaren-uzuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-24T09:08:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T09:08:42","slug":"dow-vadeli-islemleri-karmasik-bir-cift-uc-elliott-dalga-duzeltmesi-yasiyor-dongu-nisan-2025-diplerinden-itibaren-uzuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dow-vadeli-islemleri-karmasik-bir-cift-uc-elliott-dalga-duzeltmesi-yasiyor-dongu-nisan-2025-diplerinden-itibaren-uzuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow Vadeli \u0130\u015flemleri, karma\u015f\u0131k bir \u00e7ift \u00fc\u00e7 Elliott Dalga d\u00fczeltmesi ya\u015f\u0131yor; d\u00f6ng\u00fc Nisan 2025 diplerinden itibaren uzuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Dow Vadeli \u0130\u015flemleri (YM), 10 \u015eubat 2026\u2019daki 50.611 seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesinden bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu hareket, Nisan 2025 dip seviyesinden ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan gelen bir **d\u00fczeltmenin** par\u00e7as\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Elliott Dalga analizinde **\u00e7ift \u00fc\u00e7 (double three)** olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan bir d\u00fczeltme formasyonu \u015feklinde yorumlan\u0131yor. (Bu terim, piyasan\u0131n tek hamlede de\u011fil; iki ayr\u0131 d\u00fczeltme b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn birbirine ba\u011flanmas\u0131yla daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir geri \u00e7ekilme yapmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.) Saatlik grafikte **W** dalgas\u0131 46.333\u2019e inerken, **X** dalgas\u0131 48.275\u2019e toparland\u0131.\n\nX dalgas\u0131 zirvesinden sonra **((A))** dalgas\u0131 45.453\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve **((B))** dalgas\u0131 47.210\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Mevcut **Y** dalgas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc devam ederken, i\u00e7eride **zigzag** (\u00fc\u00e7 par\u00e7al\u0131: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f-toparlanma-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u015feklinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen tipik d\u00fczeltme yap\u0131s\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc var.\n\n<h3>Near Term Technical Levels<\/h3>\nK\u0131sa vadede, tepkiler 47.210\u2019un ve \u00f6zellikle 48.275\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f kalabilir. 10 \u015eubat 2026 zirvesinden hesaplanan **Fibonacci uzatma** seviyeleri (ge\u00e7mi\u015f fiyat hareketinden yola \u00e7\u0131karak olas\u0131 hedef b\u00f6lgeleri tahmin eden oranlar), a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 41.268\u201343.925 band\u0131n\u0131 hedef b\u00f6lge olarak i\u015faret ediyor. Bu bant, **%100\u2013%161,8 uzatma** aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayan\u0131yor (yani \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f boyunun 1 kat\u0131 ile 1,618 kat\u0131 aras\u0131nda bir hedef b\u00f6lgesi).\n\nBu hareket, daha geni\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fc i\u00e7inde bir d\u00fczeltme evresi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 41.268\u201343.925 b\u00f6lgesi, d\u00fczeltme tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda al\u0131mlar\u0131n gelebilece\u011fi bir alan olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor.\n\nDow\u2019da Nisan 2025\u2019te ba\u015flayan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan bir d\u00fczeltme s\u00fcreci izleniyor. Mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, basit bir geri \u00e7ekilmeden \u00e7ok daha d\u00fczenli ve katmanl\u0131 bir yap\u0131 gibi duruyor. Endeks 47.210\u2019daki kritik **diren\u00e7** seviyesinin (fiyat\u0131n a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.\n\nBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasa belirsizli\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden verilerle destekleniyor. **VIX oynakl\u0131k endeksi** (piyasada beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 ve korku\/temkin seviyesini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) son d\u00f6nemde 22\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak Ekim 2025\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez bu seviyeyi a\u015ft\u0131. Bu hareket, \u015eubat ay\u0131 enflasyon verisinin beklentinin biraz \u00fczerinde gelmesiyle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (**Fed**) yak\u0131n vadede **faiz indirimi** yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu ortam, hisse senetlerinde geri \u00e7ekilmenin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.\n\nK\u0131sa vadede bu tablo, **put opsiyonu** al\u0131m\u0131 veya **ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i (bear put spread)** gibi stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. (Put opsiyonu, fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan; ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i ise maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in bir put al\u0131p daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 fiyattan ba\u015fka bir put sat\u0131larak kurulan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f odakl\u0131 opsiyon stratejisidir.) Bu y\u00f6ntemler, hedef b\u00f6lgeye do\u011fru olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, piyasa beklenmedik \u015fekilde diren\u00e7 \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131karsa **riskin ba\u015ftan belli** olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar.\n\n<h3>Positioning And Strategy<\/h3>\nAna a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n hedefi 41.268\u201343.925 band\u0131. Bu seviyelere d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, 10 \u015eubat\u2019taki 50.611 zirvesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %15\u2019lik bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, bir y\u0131l i\u00e7indeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte d\u00fczeltmeler ola\u011fan g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.\n\nDow bu hedef b\u00f6lgeye yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a, stratejinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnden **n\u00f6tr** tarafa kaymas\u0131 uygun olabilir. Bu a\u015famada k\u0131sa (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve d\u00fczeltmenin bitti\u011fine dair i\u015faretlerin izlenmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. Sonras\u0131nda, olas\u0131 yeni bir orta-uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in **nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (cash-secured put)** veya **call opsiyonu** al\u0131m\u0131 gibi y\u00f6ntemler de\u011ferlendirilebilir. (Nakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, olas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in paray\u0131 haz\u0131r tutarak put satmak; call opsiyonu ise fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan al\u0131m hakk\u0131d\u0131r.)\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dow vadeli i\u015flemleri zirveden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte: Elliott\u2019ta \u201c\u00e7ift \u00fc\u00e7\u201d d\u00fczeltmesi Y dalgas\u0131yla s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 47.210\/48.275 alt\u0131nda bask\u0131 korunurken hedef 41.268\u201343.925. VIX y\u00fckseli\u015fi, Fed indirimi beklentisi zay\u0131f; put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31010","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31010"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31010\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31010"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31010"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31010"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}