{"id":30982,"date":"2026-03-24T02:01:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T02:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-chf-orta-dogu-geriliminin-azalmasinin-ardindan-dolarin-zayiflamasiyla-012-dususle-07870-civarina-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-24T02:01:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T02:01:31","slug":"usd-chf-orta-dogu-geriliminin-azalmasinin-ardindan-dolarin-zayiflamasiyla-012-dususle-07870-civarina-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-chf-orta-dogu-geriliminin-azalmasinin-ardindan-dolarin-zayiflamasiyla-012-dususle-07870-civarina-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF, Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin azalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla %0,12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 0,7870 civar\u0131na geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7870 seviyesine geriledi ve yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda %0,12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin \u015fimdilik azalmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.\n\nABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u00fcrerken \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n enerji tesislerine olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 be\u015f g\u00fcn erteledi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 geriledi; bu durum enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) beklentilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve ABD Hazine tahvili (devlet bor\u00e7lanma senedi) getirilerini (faiz getirisi) ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131.\n\n<h3>Orta Do\u011fu Geli\u015fmeleri ve Dolar\u0131n Tepkisi<\/h3>\nBelirsizlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Fars Haber Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ranl\u0131 kaynaklar, Washington ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddias\u0131n\u0131 reddetti. \u0130ran ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin tutumunu yineledi; bu da piyasalardaki dalgalanmay\u0131 (sert fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) y\u00fcksek tutarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn derinle\u015fmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.\n\nABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki harekete ra\u011fmen \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 (CHF) belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmedi. MUFG\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB), para biriminin h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ve gerekirse piyasaya m\u00fcdahale edebilir; bu da CHF\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.\n\nFaiz beklentileri orta vadede ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na destek vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Piyasalar bu y\u0131l ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 riskler de enflasyon endi\u015felerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor.\n\nHaftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli ABD verisi ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, paritenin risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) ve Orta Do\u011fu geli\u015fmelerini izlemesi bekleniyor. K\u0131sa vadede ana belirleyiciler bunlar.\n\n<h3>Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve Oynakl\u0131\u011fa Etkisi<\/h3>\n2025\u2019te Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin ge\u00e7ici olarak azalmas\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nem, jeopolitik man\u015fetlerin k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc yaratmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 farklar\u0131n\u0131n (faiz ve likidite yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) orta vadeli kur e\u011filimini as\u0131l belirledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Man\u015fete dayal\u0131 hareketler kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131 ve dolar k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yeniden dengelendi.\n\nBug\u00fcn tablo, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki \u201cfaiz indirimi beklenmiyor\u201d ortam\u0131na g\u00f6re belirgin bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131. Fed\u2019in duru\u015fu de\u011fi\u015fti. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasadaki faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), 2026 sonuna kadar en az iki adet \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu, son enflasyon verileriyle uyumlu. \u00c7ekirdek PCE fiyat endeksi (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemleri hari\u00e7 tutan, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ge\u00e7en ay y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8\u2019e gerileyerek merkez bankas\u0131na gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi) i\u00e7in daha fazla alan a\u00e7t\u0131.\n\nDi\u011fer tarafta SNB, 2025\u2019te oldu\u011fu gibi Frang\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleme hedefini koruyor. Bu, \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131nda piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtarak 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz indirimi yapmalar\u0131yla netle\u015fti; b\u00f6ylece gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne (faiz indirimlerinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem) giren ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131ndan biri oldu. Bu ad\u0131m, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131n di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilece\u011fine fiilen bir \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r koyuyor.\n\nFed\u2019in g\u00fcvercin (faiz indirimi e\u011filimli) ve SNB\u2019nin daha da g\u00fcvercin oldu\u011fu bu tablo, ABD Dolar\u0131 bask\u0131 g\u00f6rse bile USD\/CHF\u2019de sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin zor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Opsiyon (belirli bir fiyattan alma-satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) piyasas\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, paritede 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %7,2 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; ge\u00e7mi\u015fte jeopolitik gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ift haneli seviyelerin alt\u0131nda. Bu, fiyat\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131na oynayan stratejilerde (dar aral\u0131kta hareket beklentisi) oynakl\u0131k satman\u0131n avantajl\u0131 olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede, ayr\u0131 seviyelerden al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu satarak prim toplama) stratejisi, yatay seyirden kazan\u00e7 hedefler.\n\nAncak ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki i\u015flemlerde belirleyici olan jeopolitik belirsizlikler g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki do\u011frudan gerilim azalsa da k\u00fcresel deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme, tedarik zincirleri ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in risk olmaya devam ediyor. Ani bir t\u0131rmanma, oynakl\u0131kta s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7abilir; bu nedenle opsiyon satarken pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc (al\u0131nan risk miktar\u0131) s\u0131k\u0131 y\u00f6netmek kritik.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasalar nefes ald\u0131: USD\/CHF 0,7870\u2019e inerken Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ertelemesi petrol\u00fc, enflasyon beklentilerini ve dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. Ancak SNB m\u00fcdahale sinyali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler jeopolitikte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30982\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}