{"id":30969,"date":"2026-03-23T22:02:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T22:02:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobank-iran-catismasi-ve-kurul-ici-gorus-ayriliklarinin-enflasyon-risklerini-artirmasiyla-banxiconun-faizi-700de-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T22:02:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T22:02:46","slug":"rabobank-iran-catismasi-ve-kurul-ici-gorus-ayriliklarinin-enflasyon-risklerini-artirmasiyla-banxiconun-faizi-700de-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-iran-catismasi-ve-kurul-ici-gorus-ayriliklarinin-enflasyon-risklerini-artirmasiyla-banxiconun-faizi-700de-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve Kurul i\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon risklerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Banxico\u2019nun faizi %7,00\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank stratejistleri Molly Schwartz ve Christian Lawrence, Banxico\u2019nun (Meksika Merkez Bankas\u0131) 26 Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda gecelik politika faizini %7,00\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) risklerine ve daha \u00f6nce g\u00fcndeme gelen kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerine dikkat \u00e7ekiyorlar.\n\nMeksika\u2019n\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n enflasyon etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya y\u00f6nelik baz\u0131 \u00f6nlemleri oldu\u011funu belirtiyorlar. Yine de daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar nedeniyle enflasyonun artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar.\n\n<h3>Banxico Kurulu \u0130\u00e7indeki Ayr\u0131\u015fmalar<\/h3>\nBanxico\u2019nun Guvern\u00f6rler Kurulu\u2019nda enflasyona (fiyat istikrar\u0131na) odaklanan \u00fcyeler ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye odaklanan \u00fcyeler aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 oldu\u011funu aktar\u0131yorlar. Ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n karar s\u00fcrecini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fini ekliyorlar.\n\nBu y\u0131l Haziran\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak iki adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeye devam ediyorlar. Riskin, daha az faiz indirimi yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ve indirimlerin y\u0131l\u0131n daha ge\u00e7 d\u00f6neminde ba\u015flamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.\n\n<h3>Pesoya Y\u00f6nelik \u0130\u015flem Etkileri<\/h3>\nBug\u00fcn gecelik faiz %6,75 seviyesindeyken, \u015eubat 2026\u2019ya ait son enflasyon verisinin %4,3 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyretmesi nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ilave faiz indirimlerini fiyatlarken temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceliklendiren ge\u00e7mi\u015fi, ek parasal gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi gibi ekonomiyi destekleyici ad\u0131mlar) i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131tan\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortam, pesonun istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na veya g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine dayanan stratejileri desteklemeye devam ediyor.\n\nT\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum, Meksika pesosu \u201ccarry trade\u201dini (y\u00fcksek faiz veren para birimini ta\u015f\u0131yarak faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri hedefleme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u201cOut-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut kurun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu an de\u011fersiz olan) USD\/MXN al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (belli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satarak prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamak, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n pesoda sert zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle uygulanabilir bir strateji olmaya devam ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131 (taraflar\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kullanarak y\u00fcksek TIIE 28 g\u00fcnl\u00fck faizi \u201calma\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alabilir. TIIE 28 g\u00fcn, Meksika\u2019da k\u0131sa vadeli referans faiz oran\u0131d\u0131r; bu strateji Banxico\u2019nun faizi uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 (\u201chigher-for-longer\u201d) beklentisine dayan\u0131r.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S\u00fcrpriz mi geliyor? Rabobank, Banxico\u2019nun 26 Mart\u2019ta faizi %7,00\u2019de sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon risklerinin a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor; Haziran\u2019dan iki indirime ra\u011fmen peso\/carry trade cazip.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30969\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}