{"id":30968,"date":"2026-03-23T22:02:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T22:02:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/bob-savage-catismanin-dorduncu-haftasinda-reel-faizler-zayiflasa-da-likidite-destegiyle-huf-ve-pln-direncli-kaliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T22:02:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T22:02:08","slug":"bob-savage-catismanin-dorduncu-haftasinda-reel-faizler-zayiflasa-da-likidite-destegiyle-huf-ve-pln-direncli-kaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bob-savage-catismanin-dorduncu-haftasinda-reel-faizler-zayiflasa-da-likidite-destegiyle-huf-ve-pln-direncli-kaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Bob Savage: \u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftas\u0131nda reel faizler zay\u0131flasa da likidite deste\u011fiyle HUF ve PLN diren\u00e7li kal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa para birimleri; Macar forinti (HUF) ve Polonya zlotisi (PLN) gibi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftas\u0131na girilirken g\u00f6rece diren\u00e7li kald\u0131. Bunu destekleyen ana unsurlar y\u00fcksek **reel faiz** (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faiz; yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak politika faizi eksi enflasyon) ve **likidite** (piyasada kolay al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilme, i\u015flem derinli\u011fi) oldu. Ancak zay\u0131flayan ekonomik temeller, enerji ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyeti bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019da beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa (CEE) merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 politika de\u011fi\u015fikliklerine zorlayabilir.\n\nMacaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MNB) karar\u0131, y\u00fcksek faiz veren para birimleri i\u00e7in bir s\u0131nav olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Metin, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ilk \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan son bir haftada HUF\u2019a y\u00f6nelik para giri\u015flerinin (flow: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n al\u0131m-sat\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc para hareketleri) sa\u011flam seyretti\u011fini belirtiyor. HUF, farkl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda EMEA (Avrupa, Orta Do\u011fu ve Afrika) b\u00f6lgesinde en iyi performans g\u00f6sterenlerden biri olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor; ayr\u0131ca Macaristan\u2019\u0131n enerji fiyat\u0131 garantilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 **politika riski** (h\u00fck\u00fcmet\/merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n kur ve piyasa \u00fczerinde olumsuz etkisi) vurgulan\u0131yor.\n\nMNB\u2019nin faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Daha \u00f6nce at\u0131f yap\u0131lan 300\u2013400 baz puanl\u0131k (bp; 1 baz puan = %0,01) **reel faiz tamponunun** (kur \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek g\u00fcvenlik pay\u0131) k\u0131sa vadeli T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) \u00f6nceki tahminlerle uyumlu kal\u0131rsa \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yetebilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Bunun alt s\u0131n\u0131r olabilece\u011fi de not ediliyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek enerji ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetleri reel faizi h\u0131zla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.\n\nPLN ve HUF\u2019un likidite ve reel faiz sundu\u011fu, ancak politika risklerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. RON (Romen leyi) ve CZK (\u00c7ek korunas\u0131) ise zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterenler aras\u0131nda say\u0131l\u0131yor. RON, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck reel faiz nedeniyle iFlow\u2019da (piyasa ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 izleyen bir g\u00f6sterge\/anket seti) en zay\u0131flardan biri olarak listeleniyor ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu para birimini belirgin bi\u00e7imde az tuttu\u011fu (underheld: portf\u00f6ylerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k) bir konuma kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyor.\n\nOrta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa para birimlerinin, forint ve zloty dahil, dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ciddi bir s\u0131navdan ge\u00e7iyor. Bu para birimlerini y\u0131llard\u0131r koruyan y\u00fcksek reel faiz tamponlar\u0131, enflasyon inat\u00e7\u0131 kal\u0131rken merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 tedirgin ediyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n temel gerek\u00e7esi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.\n\n2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Macaristan gibi \u00fclkelerde 300\u2013400 baz puanl\u0131k rahat bir reel faiz alan\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn MNB\u2019nin politika faizi %6,0 iken enflasyonun %4,5 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla bu tamponun yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 baz puana indi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu, forinti ta\u015f\u0131maya (elde tutmaya) dair risk-getiri hesab\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.\n\nAvrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) politika faizini beklenenden y\u00fcksek olan %3,5 seviyesinde sabit tutmas\u0131 ek bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Zlotiyi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan **getiri avantaj\u0131** (di\u011fer para birimlerine g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek faiz geliri) art\u0131k daha az cazip. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, koruma olmadan bu para birimlerinde \u201cuzun\u201d (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle elde tutma) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131rken temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi de\u011ferlendiril\u00fcyor.\n\nRomen leyi ve \u00c7ek korunas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 en net g\u00f6sterenler aras\u0131nda; bunun 2025\u2019te ba\u015flayan e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade ediliyor. Romanya\u2019da enflasyon %5,0 iken politika faizinin %6,5 olmas\u0131, reel getiriyi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck riskli varl\u0131klarla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Koruna ise hi\u00e7bir zaman g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir **carry trade** (faizi y\u00fcksek para birimini al\u0131p faiz geliri elde etmeye dayal\u0131 strateji) arac\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, getiri arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n radar\u0131nda kalm\u0131yor.\n\nAlmanya sanayi \u00fcretiminde s\u00fcrpriz bir daralma g\u00f6steren son veriler, ihracata dayal\u0131 ekonomiler i\u00e7in uyar\u0131 sinyali veriyor. Bu tabloda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n EUR\/HUF ve EUR\/PLN gibi paritelerde **put opsiyonu** (kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan, belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi \u00f6neriliyor. Bu strateji, temel g\u00f6stergeler daha da bozulursa olas\u0131 ani kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 **hedge** (korunma: zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.\n\n\u015eimdilik pozitif reel faizler, Polonya\u2019n\u0131n son mali paketi gibi (fiscal package: b\u00fct\u00e7e\/vergiler-harcamalar yoluyla ekonomiye m\u00fcdahale paketi) riskleri dengelemeye yetiyor; bu paket b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. ECB\u2019nin \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131na dair her i\u015faretin, CEE para birimi pozisyonlar\u0131ndan h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne kar\u015f\u0131 reel faiz farklar\u0131ndaki g\u00fcnl\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimleri izlemek art\u0131k daha kritik g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CEE kurlar\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada diren\u00e7li; HUF\/PLN\u2019yi y\u00fcksek reel faiz ve likidite ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Ama enflasyon, enerji-i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc bask\u0131s\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin \u201cy\u00fcksek uzun\u201d duru\u015fu tamponu eritiyor; hedge \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30968"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30968\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}