{"id":30961,"date":"2026-03-23T20:02:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T20:02:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-piyasalarin-sikilastirmayi-fiyatlamasina-ragmen-kanada-merkez-bankasinin-gecelik-faiz-oranini-2026ya-kadar-225te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T20:02:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T20:02:11","slug":"td-securities-piyasalarin-sikilastirmayi-fiyatlamasina-ragmen-kanada-merkez-bankasinin-gecelik-faiz-oranini-2026ya-kadar-225te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-piyasalarin-sikilastirmayi-fiyatlamasina-ragmen-kanada-merkez-bankasinin-gecelik-faiz-oranini-2026ya-kadar-225te-sabit-tutmasini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, piyasalar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gecelik faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 2026\u2019ya kadar %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank of Canada) gecelik faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 (overnight rate: bankalar\u0131n bir gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizi) 2026 boyunca %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kurum, politikan\u0131n \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d seviyeye (neutral policy: ekonomiyi ne h\u0131zland\u0131ran ne de yava\u015flatan faiz d\u00fczeyi) do\u011fru 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda yeniden yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2027\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde (2027 Q1: y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131) bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.\n\nPiyasalar k\u0131sa vadeli beklentileri yeniden fiyatlad\u0131; 2026 sonuna kadar 75 baz puan\u0131n (bps: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde 1\u2019in 100\u2019de biri; 75 bps = 0,75 y\u00fczde puan) \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (tightening: faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi) fiyatlan\u0131yor. Not, bunu piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ile kendi \u201cfaiz sabit kal\u0131r\u201d tahmini aras\u0131ndaki fark olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor.\n\n<h3>Enerji Fiyat \u015eoku Ve Politika Etkileri<\/h3>\nRapor, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel ham petrol arz\u0131na (crude supply: piyasaya \u00e7\u0131kan ham petrol miktar\u0131) y\u00f6nelik tehditlerin ard\u0131ndan enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu \u201cman\u015fet enflasyon\u201d (headline inflation: toplam enflasyon; enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemleri i\u00e7erir) \u00fczerinde bir \u015fok olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n jeopolitik riskleri (geopolitical risks: siyasi\/askeri geli\u015fmelerin ekonomiye etkisi) ve yurt i\u00e7i yans\u0131malar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken bu etkiyi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edebilece\u011fini belirtiyor.\n\nAyr\u0131ca, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye gelecek ek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 katk\u0131y\u0131 emebilecek \u201carz fazlas\u0131\u201d (excess supply: ekonomide kapasitenin talebin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131) ortam\u0131na da de\u011finiyor. Bu nedenle Banka\u2019n\u0131n 2026 boyunca bekle-g\u00f6r (stay on the sidelines: ad\u0131m atmamak) tutumunu korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.\n\nK\u0131demli Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 (Senior Deputy Governor) Rogers\u2019\u0131n, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 26 Mart\u2019ta Brandon Ticaret Odas\u0131\u2019nda konu\u015fma yapmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Piyasalar\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerindeki son de\u011fi\u015fimle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 mesajlar\u0131 izlemesi bekleniyor.\n\nPiyasan\u0131n, y\u0131l sonuna kadar 75 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlayarak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n muhtemelen gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc (easing cycle: faiz indirimleri d\u00f6nemi) tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve gecelik faizi 2026 boyunca %2,25\u2019te sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ile merkez bankas\u0131 duru\u015fu aras\u0131ndaki bu uyumsuzluk, net bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.\n\nBunun \u015eubat enflasyon verisine yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck; oran %2,9 geldi. Ancak Banka\u2019n\u0131n bu ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015fi (temporary spike: k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli art\u0131\u015f) dikkate almayabilece\u011fi, oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00e7ok yurt i\u00e7i ekonomideki temel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa (underlying weakness: ge\u00e7ici olmayan ana zay\u0131fl\u0131k) \u00e7evirece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.\n\n<h3>\u0130\u015flemler Ve Yak\u0131n Vadeli Tetikleyiciler<\/h3>\nKanada ekonomisinde h\u00e2l\u00e2 arz fazlas\u0131 var; bu da daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin (energy costs: enerji kaynakl\u0131 maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131) daha geni\u015f bir fiyat sarmal\u0131na (price spiral: fiyat\u2013\u00fccret vb. etkilerle zincirleme art\u0131\u015f) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeden emilmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. 2025\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine (fourth-quarter 2025: y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131) ait nihai GSYH (GDP: Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la) raporu %0,2\u2019lik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 daralma g\u00f6sterdi; \u015firket g\u00fcveni (business sentiment: firmalar\u0131n beklenti ve i\u015ftah\u0131) yeni y\u0131la girerken temkinli kalmaya devam etti. B\u00f6yle zay\u0131f bir ortamda faizi art\u0131rmak ciddi bir politika hatas\u0131 olur.\n\nBunu daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck: 2022\u2019de merkez bankalar\u0131 enflasyonu \u00f6nce ge\u00e7ici (transitory: kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayan) say\u0131p daha sonra ad\u0131m atmak zorunda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak bu kez yurt i\u00e7i talep (domestic demand: hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin \u00fclke i\u00e7i harcamalar\u0131) \u00e7ok daha zay\u0131f; bu da Banka\u2019ya sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalmak i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e veriyor. \u00d6nemli fark, enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 (broad-based: bir\u00e7ok kaleme yay\u0131lan) fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131.\n\nBu nedenle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir finansal varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn) yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Kanada faizlerinin piyasan\u0131n ima etti\u011finden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131 senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri geri \u00e7ekildik\u00e7e kazand\u0131ran i\u015flemler kurmak anlam\u0131na gelir; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2026 sonuna tarihlenen gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131nda (overnight index swap, OIS: gecelik faiz endeksine dayal\u0131 swap; sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken\/gecelik faiz \u00f6demelerinin takas\u0131) sabit faiz almak yerine \u201csabit faiz almak\/\u00f6dememek\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn tersi olan \u201csabit faiz almak\u201d (receiving fixed: swapta sabit faiz al\u0131p de\u011fi\u015fken \u00f6demek; faiz beklentileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce de\u011fer kazan\u0131r) pozisyonu. Piyasa, Banka\u2019n\u0131n faizi %2,25\u2019te tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine yeniden d\u00f6nerse bu pozisyonun de\u011feri artar.\n\nBu hafta, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekleyecek bir mesaj gelip gelmeyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Rogers\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131 izlenecek. Sab\u0131rl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 vurgulamas\u0131 ve man\u015fet enflasyonu ikinci plana atmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Banka\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmedi\u011fine dair bir i\u015faret, piyasada bu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 (pricing them out: beklentinin geri al\u0131nmas\u0131) tetikleyebilir.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b>\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n &#8211; Ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/trade-now\/\">buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Piyasa \u201c75 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma\u201d fiyatl\u0131yor; TD Securities\u2019e g\u00f6re BoC 2026 boyunca faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tutacak. Enerji \u015foku ge\u00e7ici, arz fazlas\u0131 var; 2027 Q1\u2019de art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30961\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}